저자: THE시저 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥·반도체 강세 속 공포지수 하락을 근거로 추가 상승 가능성을 언급하며, 나스닥 주봉이 볼린저 상단을 돌파해 단기 조정이 올 수 있으니 조정 시 분할 매수를 권유. 테슬라 일부 익절 후 보유, TQQQ 레버리지 과열 경고와 10% 부분 매도 언급, SQQQ는 키움 매수 흐름 언급, 비트코인·이더리움 저항선 관찰, 도지코인 일부 익절 언급.
다듬은 글
It's been a while. This is THE시저. First, let's check the market close this morning. Overall, it finished flat, but it showed enough to fool us. In the case of the Nasdaq, it is losing momentum slightly. It was very good in the pre-market and wasn't bad until the early trading session, but it gave a significant intraday correction, and the S&P 500 did the same.
Normally, there is a tendency for it to correct on the same day and then continue for a few more days, but when an intraday correction ends like this, in a way, it is a very good trend. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index did drop a little during the session, but because it had risen so much, it rolled back up and finished with a very large gain.
So far, the trend is good. As of 7 o'clock, when I am making this video, Nasdaq futures are also showing a decent trend.
Yesterday, the figures for the continuing jobless claims came out. Although slightly lower than forecasts and slightly higher than before, the new jobless claims also came out lower than forecasts. The US is still strong. The phenomenon of employment stagnating further, which Powell wants, has not yet occurred.
Of course, Powell has declared a de facto end to interest rate hikes and is moving toward rate cuts... Although he made remarks foreshadowing next year, it seems unlikely that interest rates will be cut immediately next January. Powell would typically play the last card of a rate cut to smoothly prevent a recession only when inflation has completely slowed or there are clear signs of an economic downturn. However, given that jobless claims remain low and employment is still strong, he might maintain the freeze a bit longer.
Let's check the fear index. Even though the Nasdaq rose to 68 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index rose as well, and despite the overall rise, the fear index has dropped. The Russell rose, and even penny stocks have surged significantly, yet the fear index has gone down. What is going on? Shouldn't we see an Extreme Grid?
Ah, how hard we've struggled to get this far; we've endured for a year. Shouldn't we wait and see the Extreme Grid before selling? Everyone, I will try to wait and see.
Also, I uploaded videos one by one 12 days ago regarding the Nasdaq's "passing the bomb" pattern. If you look at the video in the thumbnail, the Nasdaq's "passing the bomb" pattern appears in the middle. Big Tech rises, small and mid-caps rise, and penny stocks surge. The decline in penny stocks is the inverse.
You shouldn't bet with excessive amounts of money. I told you that while it might be possible, if it is a small amount, I believe it is still a situation where you can bet on penny stocks. And now, small and mid-cap stocks and penny stocks have started to skyrocket. If you view the situation pessimistically and consider the unfavorable outlook, you should also consider the possibility that the Nasdaq's "bomb-passing" might be ending right now.
I have already uploaded all these penny stocks to the watchlist in the Caesar's membership video, and I have been telling you for quite some time. I also told you in advance that the Nasdaq would rise, small and mid-cap stocks would rise, and penny stocks would surge. I did not add these stocks to my watchlist to buy them, but rather to check the Nasdaq's trends. You might ask why I don't buy them to check the bomb-passing pattern, but aren't TQQQ, SOXL, BULZ, Pangu, and Tesla better options?
Anyway, even if these stocks rise a lot, they will all give back if the Nasdaq undergoes a correction. What does that mean? You have to day trade. What does it mean to day trade? You have to stay up all night. You have to get some sleep, don't you?
The fear index has gone from 71 to 68. Since it went down, I did nothing. However, if it rises again today or the fear index breaks through 75, I have now sold an additional 10% of my position. I believe nothing rises endlessly. Please refer to the fear index trading method.
TQQQ has surpassed 180% this year, but my return is 197%; I am still winning. However, looking at it positively, if TQQQ rises further from here, my return will be overtaken. This is because I have set aside some cash. I have sold a few times recently, haven't I? That is why I say it will be overtaken. If QQQ continues to rise, this return itself will be completely crushed. But since you all know that nothing rises endlessly, I realized profits on a portion of my position.
Looking at the options, it is 0.71. What did I say? I said I would sell again between 0.75 and 0.70. If it shows another rise today, I will sell a portion of my position again. It is going according to plan. Even if the fear index does not reach 75, if today's big rise shows signs of continuing, I will sell a portion of my position.
The reason is that if you look at the NASDAQ weekly chart, the curved line above the candle is the upper Bollinger Band. When the weekly candle breaks through this upper Bollinger Band, a correction occurs; if it breaks through here as well, a slight correction follows; and if it breaks through here as well, a correction occurs regardless. Of course, if a lot of time passes after that, it will rise much more.
So, for those who feel a tremendous surge in the NASDAQ right now, do this: rather than chasing it hastily right now, a correction is bound to happen eventually. When a correction occurs and the candle touches and supports the 20-day moving average (weekly 20-day) and daily 20-day moving average, because of the current massive bull market, it could touch them again and rise. At that point, when it gives a slight correction, hold on a bit, and then buy again.
The uptrend is long, long, and short is short. This is an immutable truth, everyone. Of course, even if you buy now, you could continue to make profits. However, are you confident that you can avoid cutting your losses during a correction? It is not easy.
If you buy during a correction, you can hold on because there is still hope that the previous high will rise again since there is still a chance to reach it. However, if you buy at the peak, when a correction occurs, you will be engulfed in fear, wondering, "Could this be the peak?" This means you might cut your losses without even realizing it.
Everyone, I firmly believe that the Nasdaq is trending upward, but even I might cut my losses if a correction came when I bought here with no position. That is why you should buy when a correction comes. Don't buy at the top just because you can't beat the FOMO. Don't hit short longs; just go to sleep at night. Make sure to buy when a definite entry point arrives. That is the topic of today's video.
Let's check the exchange rate. The exchange rate needs to drop like crazy to touch the Bollinger Bands, but it is rising again. It is not a very good situation. However, since there is still a lot of red resistance remaining, I am holding the Nasdaq.
WTI International has risen for three consecutive days for the first time in a while. However, I mentioned that it is a technical rebound zone until it touches the descending moving average. It is still okay.
Let's take a look at Tesla. Ah, Tesla has risen again. Oh, it shouldn't be rising... wait a minute, it is going up. And it has broken through the short-term support line. That is a good sign. Also, it has almost reached the vicinity of the medium-term upper resistance line. It has broken through the medium-term upper resistance level as well. If this black line breaks directly through the long black line, unfortunately, it seems Tesla's dance ends here.
It is a bit regrettable that I couldn't accumulate a large volume, but my investment principle is not to buy when prices rise sharply. I just bought here, I bought once here. It is a shame about that volume, but I have no choice but to hold onto it and enjoy the small profit. Tesla, I was wrong. I didn't know you would become a legend of kings so quickly. But you are not king yet, are you? Give it just a little more chance.
Everyone, trading by accumulating like this is a comfortable way to go. If you like it when it comes down but actually dislike it when it goes up, you need to trade like this. It is relaxed trading: split buying and split selling.
Let's look at the TQQQ daily chart. It has broken through the upper Bollinger Band and is floating high. It was a bull market last June and July, wasn't it? It is proceeding with tremendous mercilessness. Haven't I been telling you this repeatedly? June, July, and now are showing patterns of significant mercilessness. It breaks through the upper Bollinger Band, corrects, goes back up, breaks through the upper Bollinger Band, corrects, goes back up, breaks through the upper Bollinger Band, corrects, shows a crazy correction, and then goes back up. It is a repetition of this in stocks.
That is why, inevitably, in one or two months, definitely next week, or for those investing with borrowed money, now is the selling timing. However, we are long-term investors, aren't we? We just reduce our position slightly, and if another correction comes, we buy again. Because with 3x leverage, you just hold onto 1x leverage until you die, but since we are doing 3x leverage, if we fail to sell here and get hit with a continuous correction, our accounts will melt away significantly.
So, for those investing with urgent funds, this is a spot to take a small profit. However, since we are using surplus funds, if you really want to sell, sell 10% of your position. It's just getting battered by a correction. Getting battered over and over again. If you don't want to get battered by corrections while trading stocks, those people shouldn't be trading; they should just stick to a savings account. If you trade stocks, you are bound to get battered by corrections. And you panic sell at the appropriate point during the correction. It is a repetition of that, everyone.
SOXL has just completely spun around. I have rarely seen a candlestick like this while trading stocks. The inside is clearly not normal. Right now, it is just a doji chart. The doji chart appeared once this June, didn't it? The doji chart spun around here again, gave a slight correction, went further, and this candlestick is floating around without closing the Bollinger Bands. Even now, this candlestick is floating around without closing the Bollinger Bands. How do you look at this candlestick? You just get battered by a correction.
Let's move on to BULZ. Then, let's check the daily indicators. In the case of SOXL, the RSI is 23. Everyone, for individual stocks, the RSI is 23, and sometimes it frequently drops severely below 10. But this overall index... Regarding the RSI below 23, that is the case. As for SQQQ with an RSI of 27, this is a very unsettling situation for small investors. I won't say much for those people. However, the fact is that Kiwoom Warriors are executing single-trading on SQQQ. Of course, this is a net buying situation; Kiwoom Warriors' hidden buying status changes in real time. The ticker symbol changes even when the market opens or just one hour later. But currently, in the pre-market, Kiwoom Warriors are buying SQQQ. Wall Street forces never give money to places where retail investors flock. It is an immutable truth. I will proceed with peace of mind in this pre-market for now.
The coin fear index is 70. Bitcoin was good yesterday, but it is showing a slight correction today. It seems this previous high line is acting as significant resistance because there is a substantial volume zone at that line. Ethereum is showing another significant correction today as well. Again, this previous high line is a significant resistance zone. It is the same here. Although it rose sharply once, a considerable amount of time has passed to surpass the previous high. And if it breaks through this previous high... To the moon. Even here, it will be very difficult to break through this previous high line. However, if it does break through this previous high line, it is a "To the Moon." You need to look at stock or coin charts like this; don't get discouraged by every little thing.
Personally, if Ethereum breaks through the previous high line and goes "To the Moon," I believe that could be the final rally for coins. Of course, since I don't hold much Ethereum, I don't care whether it breaks the previous high or not. Because I only hold a small amount, I'm just going to see it through to the end. I'm going all the way. Since I have taken a lot of profits, even if I lose everything—of course, it would be very sad—I am okay with going into the red to some extent. That is why partial profit taking is necessary, everyone.
Dogecoin is not good. I should have taken a lot of profits here. But well, I will see it through to the end.
Since there is still a lot of Dogecoin volume, I will wrap up with a famous quote about stocks: "We tend to be afraid when others are greedy, and we become greedy only when others are afraid." What about you? You tend to be greedy when others are greedy, and you become afraid only when others are afraid, don't you? Doesn't Warren Buffett do the opposite? I heavily refer to the famous quotes of figures like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and John Templeton. I am not repeating this just to use it as a simple closing remark. While I don't know what will happen in the short term, when viewed from a long-term perspective, the sayings of these stock market masters are all correct; they are all the right answers.
Just like Korean proverbs, which are used metaphorically but are all correct, long-term investors must refer to the sayings of these stock market masters.
So, even if the Nasdaq experiences a correction today, I will take the hit and keep going. I hope you have a wonderful time with your family on this Friday.
I will go all the way. That is all.
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