저자: VijarKohli · 외국인
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결론: 제이미 다이먼의 주주서한을 근거로 미국 경제가 2023년까지 호황을 이어갈 것이라는 낙관론을 소개한다. 주주서한 소개: 워런 버핏 서한과 하워드 막스의 'The most important thing'을 추천하며, 다이먼의 66페이지 서한은 거시적 시각이 뛰어나다고 평가한다. 다이먼 경력: JP모건 CEO 약 16년, 시티그룹 출신 등 경력을 설명하며 JP모건을 세계 1위 универсаль 은행으로 평가한다. 호황 근거: 초과 저축(스티뮬러스 자금), 빠른 백신 접종, 기록적 재정적자, 2~3조 달러 규모 인프라 계획, 팬데믹 종료가 맞물려 1~2년간 경기 호조가 이어진다는 다이먼의 전망을 전한다. 중국 비교: 다이먼이 중국 지도자들과 많이 접촉했으며 중국은 미국이 기술·인프라·교육에서 쇠퇴했다고 본다는 점을 언급한다. 인프라 과제: 미국 철도·고속철이 중국에 뒤처져 있어 교통 인프라 투자가 필요하다고 주장한다. 재택근무: 다이먼은 직원의 약 40%가 원격 근무 가능하다고 보고 JP모건 사무공간 축소를 예고했다. 사이버보안·기술: 다이먼은 기술 투자와 사이버보안을 강조하며, 이를 소홀히 하는 기업은 리스크 신호라고 본다. 규제 완화: 자본 규제가 대출 여력을 제약했던 2020년 문제를 짚고, 규제 완화가 은행 대출 확대에 도움이 된다고 설명한다. 리스크: 영상은 주로 낙관론이며 구체적 하방 리스크 논의는 제한적이다. 출연자 전망: 미국 경제가 2023년까지 호황을 유지할 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
welcome back everybody to another edition of the finance here today we're going to talk about jamie diamond's shareholder letter it is one of my favorite things to read every year this along with warren buffett's shareholder letter his annual letter that he's been writing for over 70 years i think yes 60 70 years it's an amazing you know first up i'll start off with warren buffett i've read all of the shareholder letters since i think it's 1956.
uh that in itself is a great uh just just tool it's like it's the it's your mini mba and investing he talks about the simplicities of making good deals finding good businesses why he makes the investments the return on equity it's very exciting it's very simple um it's it's so clean to read it's about 10 to 20 pages uh each letter and if you don't read anything else this year just read a shareholder letters you'll be a better investor for the rest of your life so warren buffett talks about two people that he also recommends reading i'm sure he reads hundreds of letters every year but there are two investors that he mentions he's mentioned quite a few times both of them have said it's very honorable first up is howard marks from oak street capital he's a very reputable investor he talks about market cycles he's very similar to ray dalio but he's more known in the world of debt and credit and he runs a really big mega hedge fund it's in the 20 30 billion dollar plus range it's an amazing hedge fund howard marx writes the most important thing letter it's very well written he's written a book he's written a couple other things but the most important thing is a very well known investor letter on the street howard mark's also a very clear thinker he thinks very macro so i recommend checking that out the second letter is by jamie dimon he's the ceo and chairman of jpmorgan chase i'm a former employee and alum jamie dimon is uh he's a bread thoroughbred banker he's the best i've ever seen i've seen so many of them um it's been an honor to get like i have a chance to work with him have a chance to work at the company you could see that very financed banking is very much ingrained in his uh in his mind um it's been in his blood and his family's blood for uh i think one or two generations his dad was a wealth manager um so he's a new york boy just like lloyd blankfein who was a former ceo of goldman sachs jamie dimon is amazing you know he's been the current so he just to give you a quick background before we jump into a shareholder letter he was the right-hand man to sandy weil who built up what is now uh citigroup he left he actually got fired from citigroup so jamie dimon decided to go into his own um start his own career in banking he became the ceo of bank one in i think the year 2000 pretty big position um for anybody who becomes a big ceo a large bank but he he had to move to chicago so it was outside of new york transition i think he ended up acquiring or get acquired he got acquired by chase um that eventually emerged with jp morgan and became jp morgan chase so that was his rise he's been the ceo of jp morgan for i think since 2005.
so we're just about 16 years he's a very long-standing ceo this is twice the regular tenure of any ceo he's done an amazing job there's no question that jpmorgan chase is the number one universal bank in the world they provide a variety of services that are much bigger than like a goldman sachs or morgan stanley and better run than a citigroup and they do everything that you can imagine from commercial banking to investment management to uh private equity to every single well um you know every single thing you can imagine in the bank from custodial like assets they do it really well they're well run he's not a guy who likes to spend money he's very much you know bottom line oriented so they have a fortress balance sheet he talks about all of this in a shareholder letter he's been doing it for so many years i enjoyed it when i was an employee at the firm i still read it every year because jamie dimon provides a macro mindset from the world of banking which is unique you know because banking has a very um uh it always touches every single industry and jep morgan is a very big bank it's been around for a hundred plus years uh uh pure john pierport morgan when he founded the company i think in like 1890 or the mid-1800s they've built their business really on the steel industry the railroad industry did a lot with the vanderbilts and carnegie's but it's still been running and still been the house of morgan is still operating and today jamie does a really good job of understanding the depths of different problems in america he doesn't talk about just the wealthy and the one percent he talks about the problems that are happening in commercial communities you know the chase banks you've seen them all across the country they have a fantastic reputation their online banking is awesome mobile banking is awesome but he talks about the problems with consumers small businesses everything that's going on in local communities because jamie's been known to travel these small communities meet with the people that are of the local areas he talks about inequality and how he's addressed it in his company you know this is a 66 page letter so it's very well in-depth very detailed he talks about so many things um and i'll get to a couple of them very soon and what's pretty exciting is that he's uh he's been able to be very consistent so the biggest thing is that one of the largest sba lenders in the country so they naturally were providing the most largest number of loans to the most companies so they have the they had the best uh oversight what really happened what really worked um so without further ado let's talk about why jamie dimon sees an economic boom coming in the next two to three years he thinks this current economy is going to run at its momentum until 2023 it's going to be very exciting to see that his recipe for the success is excess savings the stimulus savings you know all the money that's been given to people they haven't been able to spend it in the same fashion they'd like to successful vaccines that have been deployed in the last 12 months record time frame deficit spending which is one fueling the stimulus savings and two we're gonna have this infrastructure plan that will be about two to three trillion dollars and then at the end of the pandemic which is really very close at the current moment in time we'll see this just all this stuff come together it will last for another year or two it will be very exciting for people to come out into the economy if you got questions let me know you know i'm chimed in twitter linkedin everything is streaming right now let me know your thoughts you know what you think is going to boom for the economy why it's important how it's going to impact people and businesses in the world so here's a picture of jamie dimon he's on the cover over shareholder letter they love to honor him he thinks the economy will boom for the reasons mentioned i don't doubt any of them i think it's a recipe for success a lot of people are hoping or expecting a retraction or a drawdown i don't think that's going to happen anytime soon given how much money is available in the country right now how much how low the interest rates are and how considerate right now both the federal and the government programs are about the lower class about helping them get their feet back into the workplace getting the economy up and running once again so jamie has been uh very uh very open he's been traveling the world he does business all over the world but every single entity from institutions to sovereign wealths everything he has spoken to more chinese leaders than probably most companies have because they have to finance a lot of the projects they have to do a lot of the business over there international national whatever it may be with vendors and stuff and he has noted that the chinese leaders already believe that the american country at united states is in the decline that we've lost their edge in technology infrastructure and education these are not a surprise the one this is the primary reason why we have a three two trillion dollar infrastructure bill coming out our technology is number two to china well still it might be amazing it's not high enough and our education is definitely at the bottom of the list i don't even think we meet the top 10 in some areas so we're we're definitely torn apart from the outside that's not a good sign you know people like to think that the grass is greener but that's not the current case uh so china probably in some cases doesn't even view us as a threat so there are some areas that we need to work on there just to bring the country back to a leadership position so capitalism wins my biggest example that i love to use is that we have an infrastructure plan we're not focusing on transportation enough so it's important to say hey where could be leaders i think transit and transportation the railway systems is a really good example jpmorgan is the best example because they invested and built their business on railways uh or finance them in the early 1900s late 1800s china's railway system the high-speed rail is three times faster than our current consumer rail uh and probably faster than our freight rails as well and it just doesn't make sense there's no reason for us not to have this type of infrastructure today uh he also mentioned that at the current point actually it's worth noting if you've never been in new york that jp morgan had three large buildings office buildings in the sub park ave grand central area they had the they were already doing the largest uh tear down of commercial building in new york city of their headquarters they were going to rebuild it they moved a lot of their employees i think they had 30 000 employees on that 48th and park area 50th 50th and park area and uh they had dispersed them they had reduced this foot sprint down to like 10 to 15 000 employees and now he's predicting with the remote work 40 of those employees can actually work from home or from anywhere else in the world so he can reduce his footprint even further than it was before which is which is pretty impressive given the size of the company it's a couple hundred thousand employees you can't do it at the commercial banks but you can do it at the back office some of the front office roles the middle office technology roles some of the management roles so 40 is a pretty big uh pretty big discount i think it's i think it's something that other companies need to take note of because if jp morgan can do this with so many employees there's no excuse you can't do it with 50 if you have you know a tenth you have a hundred employees or a thousand employees next up he mentioned in his shareholder letter something he's been very adamant about for past six seven years since i've been really actively reading this is they have always invested one a lot in technology there's a threat in the world from fintech neo banks other banks and other lending institutions that are not traditional banks so one he's always invested a lot in technology he's made sure that cyber security is on top of the list i think he spends more than most of the fortune 500 companies probably more than most of the fortune 50 companies uh it's for a good reason because he has so much consumer information so much critical information and he's a big spender and a big proponent of cyber security so that's very impressive if you have thoughts on cyber security on the world of technology i love to hear about it what you've seen or what your company's investing in or what people should be investing in i think it's something to keep an eye on so it's a pretty big point that he he noted he's always noted i think it's worth mentioning that if your company or the company you're investing in is not noting this it's a concern it's a yellow flag maybe a red flag because if data is loose or it's you know hackable then uh you're under you're you're under threat so it's something you need to just be aware of that uh are we investing or are we not investing right in cyber security so again he believes this boom is gonna happen until 2023 um if if you have a chance this is a link to the shareholder letter i'll i'll send it over to you if you'd like like to check it out it's interesting i read it 66 pages it used to be much shorter but he's put a lot of thought into it he's he's really thought about where the economy is going what the comp country is doing how banking can be uh improved with the regulatory compliance issue is being reduced so that banks can provide more lending it was one of the biggest obstacles in 2020 they had a capital requirement they had to keep x amount of dollars on on their balance sheet which is great they didn't have a capital liquidity problem but the on the other hand there were a lot of businesses and consumers that couldn't get access to capital because they have the banks have to meet capital requirements and they can't simply just land like they used to in a relaxed environment so there's always a you know catch 22 in these scenarios so jamie dimon does a fantastic job i recommend checking it out it's it's an awesome letter he breaks down so many more details obviously can't fit everything in 15 minutes but it's something i want to highlight because it's something i read all the time if you have questions or comments feel free to keep bringing them in i love to hear what your thoughts are what letters you're reading what's on your mind on the markets on banking finance anything in this area i love to see what's what else is going on in the world from cyber security and technology as well so without further ado i'm gonna i'm gonna close down today's episode let uh let you guys tag me if you have any questions reach out on twitter and quora if you have any more questions and i'll reach out but until next time see everybody and we'll talk about what's going on tomorrow take care
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