저자: RayDalio발언해석자—채널진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 레이 달리오의 비트코인·금 분산투자 발언을 소개하며, 법정화폐 의존 탈피와 금·비트코인 병행 보유(포트폴리오 10~15% 수준)를 강조한다. 달리오는 금이 비트코인보다 중앙은행 준비자산으로서 우위에 있고 변동성이 덜하다고 평가했다. 로버트 케네디 주니어의 연준 비판도 함께 소개된다. 진행자는 본인이 비트코인을 보유 중이라고 밝힌다. 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 단기 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
sell all your euros and dollars and buy Bitcoin and gold with them. This is now being recommended by one of the most well-known hedge fund managers in the world, Ray Dallio, who is talking about his Bitcoin investment. We absolutely need to look into what's behind this. Additionally, we have Robert Kennedy Jr.
who is now massively warning about the Federal Reserve and says that the Federal Reserve is doing very, very dirty business here. It is still open to audit the Federal Reserve here. We have two massive statements here. One from Robert Kennedy Jr. and one from Ray Dalio, which we absolutely need to look at now.
But before we get to the warning from Labbert Kennedy Jr., who simply points out here that the Federal Reserve is a criminal gang, that they are just messing things up here, and that the whole thing should be abolished, the entire apparatus. Let's dive into what Ray Dallio has to say about Bitcoin, about gold, and why he is currently so strongly warning against state currencies, paper currencies, dollars, euros, franks, rubles, whatever all these shitcoins are called.
Check it out. No, my my view on cryptos remain pretty much the same and I'll and I'll I'll I'll articulate it. First of all, I think that and I own crypto. I own some Bitcoin. Um the question is the amount and how attractive it is relative to gold. Okay. Um I I think that there's kind of uh the old man's gold and then the younger man's uh crypto.
But also he first addresses it and says, "Hey folks, there's gold. There's Bitcoin." He now also has Bickkin in his portfolio and he's had it in his portfolio for a while. He says that his view hasn't changed, but the insights he provides now are still interesting because he has never spoken so openly and directly about Bitkin and gold.
And he simply says that the art now is to find the right allocation to find the right allocation between gold and Bickkin. And now listen up because it's about to get super interesting. Oh, and he also says that crypto is for the new people and gold is for the older people, for the boomers and so on.
But I wouldn't necessarily emphasize that because we also have a lot of followers here on the channel. If we take a look at the age statistics and so on, there are actually more people over 40 50 than people under 30. So that's also fascinating. Important thing first of all is to represent whether one or the other and really ideally some of both should be in the portfolio.
Don't be so fanatical that you're just having one and not the other. And do worry about the value of money and what is your alternative money that can't be printed. Okay. So it's very very important he says here think about the value of money and don't worry too much about whether it's gold and bitcoin or gold or bitcoin you can have both it's not about playing them against each other here so gold and bit can coexist very very well but what's very very important here is that you don't have money that can just be printed and now it's really starting now he's really getting into it so now when I look at um gold and it's and it's evolved over I mean crypto and it's evolved over time they there there have been a few things.
First of all, there's um not the privacy element of crypto. Everybody can understand um exactly what it is. You can tax it easily. So, governments can easily tax it. It doesn't have the the same element of that privacy. There's a saying that gold is the only asset you can own that you can own that's not somebody else's liability, meaning you have to depend on somebody else, you can own it and so on.
He then first addresses gold and bitcoin, the privacy issue, and you have to agree with him on that. The privacy is indeed best with gold under certain circumstances. There are, for example, people who say the ultimate off-chain transaction is when you make a gold transaction and simply pass the gold bar from one person to the next from one person to another.
And the whole thing doesn't happen digitally, but rather very anonymously and privately under the table. Because gold leaves even fewer traces than Bitcoin, as Bitcoin does leave traces. Bitcoin is all publicly viewable on the blockchain. You need to be very clear about that. What I don't quite understand here is when he says that with gold you don't have to trust anyone and gold is not a liability and so on.
Everything else has a liability. That's not entirely true either because with Bitcoin we also don't have a third party. So I'm not entirely sure what he meant by that. But let's continue listening. Gold is also has always been a reserve currency in all times. It's the third largest reserve currency.
In other words, the largest is the dollar, second is the euro, third is gold, and fourth is the yen. So, it's and it's always the the currency that's being gone to. Right now, we're seeing a lot of central banks acquire gold. That's not the same as crypto because crypto is different that way because still who controls it?
Is it controlled behind the scenes or do you have possession of it? Um and so for those reasons um I you know prefer uh gold to crypto. Now it's very very interesting because now he's explaining why he finds gold better than crypto and he really focuses on the central bank background here that Bitcoin is simply not yet used as a reserve asset but it can become a reserve asset if the stockpile is built up in the USA if the USA buys Bitcoin.
If the sovereign wealth fund and so on are established. But you have to agree with him here. He says the largest reserve currency is the dollar, then comes the euro, then gold and then the yen. And currently what we are seeing is that central banks are buying gold very aggressively to the point where there are sometimes no gold reserves left in London at the Bank of London.
If you want to have gold at the central bank now, you sometimes have to plan weeks or months in advance to get the gold back because there is simply a massive gold run happening. And here he clearly states that gold is superior to Bitcoin. And yes, if you look at it from that perspective, you have to somewhat agree with him.
But we also have to honestly say that Bitkin is still relatively young compared to gold and Bitcoin has all the properties to become the ultimate reserve asset. So anything can still happen. But I think the important thing is the recognition of the issue of of do you trust um the governments and I think that to trust the governments that they won't print the money to make the debt service easier um is not the best move.
So I'm um you know sort of anti- debt assets like bonds and so on and I prefer the other but I I would say that should just be um um a portion of the portfolio. I don't want to get carried away with that. I would say that if you look at it as a diversifier, I think particularly uh gold is something that if you look at how it behaves in relationship to f uh to inflation and also um interest rates, it behaves in a way that's more understandable than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is more of a speculative element with th this limited supply aspect to it. So but if you look at that it's an effective diversifier of the portfolio. If you take most other assets um stocks, bonds, real estate and so on they will generally be have good times and they will do well the gold and and that is a diversifier.
So you actually reduce your risk by by having some in the portfolio somewhere between 10 and 15% of the portfolio. And this is now the most important part. And you can already see here he is somewhat critical of Bitcoin. He criticizes it in parts, sees some small problems. Yet he has Bitcoin here and says the main point is not whether you have gold or Bitcoin, but the main point is to get out of the fiat money system.
That means sell your dollars, sell your euros. Moving to assets that are independent of the state. And then he mentions that Bitcoin and gold are especially very, very good as diversifiers. I mean, someone who follows the channel and is convinced of Bitkin can certainly talk about more than 50% allocation or 60, 70, 80, 100% allocation, and that's all okay.
But Ray Dallio is making the case here for hedge fund managers. Ray Dallio is making the case for large asset managers. And then it's remarkable that Ray Dalio is saying, "Hey folks, it's actually not up for debate. You need Bitcoin and you need gold and you can park up to 15% of your portfolio in gold and Bitcoin." Black Rock says 2% in Bitcoin.
Radalio is more aggressive here. He probably has a bit more gold than Bitcoin. So let's say maybe something like 10% gold, 5% Bitcoin or something like that. But the important thing here is that he also emphasizes that you need an asset where the debt service is not being paid off. Meaning the dollar, the euro, these are all debt securities, debt instruments, bonds, Ray Dalio says is a very, very big mistake.
He's a big seller. He's definitely on the selling side when it comes to bonds, when it comes to euros, dollars, and so on. But he focuses on assets that are outside the system. And in addition to the diversifier, he might also bring in stocks or some company shares because he also points out that for example the stock markets go up or the bond markets go up then Bitcoin and gold have a very very interesting performance because they are often not 100% correlated with the global markets.
Gold is even less correlated here. Bitkin is a bit more correlated because Bitkin is still the smaller asset and is more dependent on liquidity. But Bickin is also developing here into a perfect diversifier, a perfect riskoff asset. So what Ray Dalio refers to as a diversifier is ultimately nothing other than what for example Black Rockck would declare as a riskoff asset or Michael Sailor as a riskoff asset or sell.
This means they are talking about the same characteristics but label it a bit differently. And it's very very interesting that Ray Dalio is now publicly stating this and clearly saying, "Hey, Bitkin needs to be in the portfolio even if maybe not with too much percentage because he says there's still a speculative component." He mentions that the volatility is probably too high.
He justifies it with the 21 million. Yes, the volatility is also tied to that, but I don't see that as AK criterion. If we think long-term, then the short-term volatility is actually irrelevant. But of course, a hedge fund manager thinks differently than a private investor. For them, it's about preventing maximum drawbacks.
And in that sense, I do understand what he's saying here. In any case, he has now endorsed Bitcoin and gold. And now, we need to look at what Robert Kennedy, Robert Kennedy Jr., is saying because he is now strongly criticizing the Federal Reserve. We know by now that there are many people, politicians in the USA, who want to end the Fed.
I think Ray Dalio wouldn't be too unhappy if the Fed were to be ended. He is also a very strong critic of the debt saying we are in the early stages of hyperinflation because we are building a Ponzi scheme by paying off old debts with new debts and this is nothing other than the early phase of a hyperinflationary system.
And now Robert Kennedy Jr. is actually stepping in and he is delivering a complete critique of the Federal Reserve. It's really worth watching. Make sure to check it out. of the Fed is like a pump. Its function it it it operates on behalf of a few Wall Street banks and its function is to act like a pump.
It is literally striplining the wealth and equity and away from the American middle class shifting it up where companies in this country and financial institutions when I was a kid they would go out if you wanted to make an investment they'd go out and look at the the all the factories they'd go to Michigan they'd go to Detroit they'd go to other parts of our country and they look at the factories and they say what does the management team look like what are the production figures what are the financial figures is what is the bank book?
What is the inventory? They look at that and then they make a financial bet. That doesn't happen today. The only thing they're focused on on Wall Street is what is the Fed going to do next? And our country's been financialized and we've allowed all of the industry to leave our country and it's now in China.
We've outsourced it. This is very very interesting how he describes it here and I always tell you that the Federal Reserve let's say is a very very questionable institution and he describes the whole thing here as a pump. That means the Federal Reserve is a pump. I would call it the cantillan effect but he says it's like a pump.
It takes money from the middle class or from people who have very very little money and pumps it up to those who already have a lot of money. And it works through the cantillan effect where people who are very very close to the money creation, who are very very close to the money printer benefit first from new cheap money and other people who don't have access to the capital market have lost massively.
And here Robert Kennedy Jr. says that the whole thing has a lot of criminal energy. He also says that all the Wall Street people and such definitely do not have the interest of the small investor in mind. They definitely do not have the interest to benefit the small investor, but rather it is clearly against the small investor.
They just want to pump up their company valuations. These are cartels and we have a massively nasty system where very, very few people benefit and a great many people are the losers. And that's why Bitcoin is so important. And Robert Kennedy Jr. is also a big supporter of Bitcoin. You should know that a large part of his portfolio is allocated in Bitcoin.
Meaning he has I don't know how much but a large part probably 60 70 80% of his portfolio in Bitkin. It's also been said that he gave each of his daughters and sons a bitcoin or something like that at birth. It's pretty cool of course to come into the world with a Bitcoin. Imagine that you come into the world and 18 years later Bitcoin is probably worth several million.
I mean that's quite a good start in the world I would say. And Kennedy Jr. is someone who not only talks but also acts. That means exactly what he says. He says, "Hey, the Federal Reserve is corrupt. We need to abolish it. We need to audit it." And so on. He says it, but he also demonstrates it by supporting free money.
That means you always have to look at what people do, not what they say. When people, for example, say the Federal Reserve is corrupt, but then still hold government bonds, still hold dollars, and so on, then it just doesn't make sense. But if you say, "Okay, the Federal Reserve is a very, very questionable group, and additionally, you buy Bitcoin like crazy," then it all makes perfect sense.
Guys, let me know in the comments how you see the whole situation. I'm enjoying the coconuts here in El Salvador. Top quality. Check out these mangoes from the tree. It's mango season now. They're not quite ripe yet, but if you don't pick them early enough, they're not fully red or yellow, they turn a reddish yellow.
The problem is if you pick them too late, even though it's actually better to pick them later, the birds eat them all up. That's always the big problem that in the tropics, you're always competing with the birds. It's the same with bananas and so on. There's really everything here. There are bananas, papayas from the tree, avocados from the tree, mangoes from the tree.
I always get everything from the tree, but you always have to compete with the animals. And then it can actually make sense to pick the fruits before they are 100% ripe. But that's still different from in Germany. In Germany, the fruits are somehow picked 3 weeks earlier and then they ripen for about a month afterwards and so on.
And in Germany, it comes to a store, then you have a pineapple that you bite into and it burns your whole face or something because everything is still sour. It's not like that here. You just have to pick it 2 or 3 days before the fruit is ripe or so. So now I'm going to indulge in some mangoes. I'm going to indulge in some coconuts and later I'll indulge in a watermelon.
See you later. Oh, right. And if you still want to buy Bitcoin, I'll put a link below to 21 Bitcoin where you can buy Bitcoin easily, safely, and simply with the code Bitcoin hotel. You can get up to 20% off the fees when buying Bitcoin. Let me know if you've already had a coconut drink. Coconut and Bitcoin to the moon. Peace out.
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