저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 코로나19 충격으로 증시가 폭락한 지금은 지수 대신 개별 우량·필수 소비 종목을 골라 사야 하며, 연준과 정부의 정책 대응을 긍정적으로 본다. 시장 상황: 다우가 약 3,000포인트 폭락해 2년 만의 최저 종가를 기록했고 S&P500은 11.9%, 나스닥은 12% 급락했다. 2018년 12월 저점을 이미 깨 더 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 연준·정책: 연준의 긴급 금리 인하와 유동성 공급은 은행 영업을 유지하는 데 효과가 있었다고 평가했다. 재무장관 므누신과 통화 및 소상공인 지원 계획을 논의했고, 펠로시 등과 대규모 부양책이 나오면 시장이 안정될 것이라고 봤다. 지수 투자 비판: S&P500 지수펀드는 부실 기업까지 같이 담게 되므로 승자와 패자를 골라야 한다고 주장했다. 업종별 전망: 항공주는 9·11 이후처럼 장기 부진을 겪을 것으로 봤고 보잉도 부정적이다. 에너지주는 사우디와 러시아의 증산 경쟁으로 피해가 크다. 카지노·레스토랑·엔터테인먼트는 사회적 거리두기로 투자 불가 수준이며 펜내셔널게이밍은 39달러에서 8달러로 급락했다. 소매업(메이시스, 노드스트롬 등)은 실적과 배당 삭감 위험이 크다. 은행: 저평가 상태이고 정책이 뒷받침하지만 주주환원 중단 탓에 아직 바닥 확인 전이라 섣불리 사기 어렵다. 매수 후보: 식품·제약 등 경기방어 필수소비재, 포장식품(콘아그라 등), 필수 의약품·진단키트 관련 기업(써모 피셔 등)을 꼽았다. 금은 하락해도 사 모을 만하다고 봤다. 진행자 발언: 이번 위기는 2007년과 달리 정책 당국이 대응에 나서고 있어 다르다고 평가했다. 시장 바닥은 아직 확인되지 않았다고 본다.
다듬은 글
e of help you save some money my job is not just to put in context and entertain but to educate and teach you Kramer after the worst day since the crash of 87 second worst day ever with the Dow plunging nearly 3,000 points to the lowest close in two years ssp plummeting eleven point nine percent no Nasdaq nose-diving twelve points B two percent but truly sickening day with a horrendous last hour it's finally dawning on people that we're in a real crisis year I've been telling you that this pandemic could be real bad news for stocks since I came back from that Superbowl chasing that we were under estimating the coming outbreak they could send us into eight well I'm going to say a recession because I think that it's pretty obvious that well that's kind of where we're going you know the people did underestimate the coming outbreak and I've got to tell you that as far as I'm concerned it really isn't one of these situations where we can just kind of ride it out we have to think about it we got to figure out what to do we got to work together and I've got some ideas they're not simple ideas they're ideas involving opportunity they're ideas involving what I regard as being let's just say some things that happen that are good when the market goes down but we're not ready yet now first let's talk about what went wrong here I mean I've been saying that we were going to underestimate this this situation I've told you I told you that this market was headed back to two lows we made the last time we were on the eve of recession the December of 2018 we've now taken out those lows and we can go lower because this is worse than the Fed mandated slowdown we had back then the markets fiercely trying to adjust to the vast economic downturn that is the only way to beat kovat and we're jesting we're not there yet the average is likely won't bottom and some more people adjust to the new normal that I've been warning you about for weeks but this is big but at this point after the dramatic heart-stopping sell-off maybe we gotta start thinking maybe it's too late too late too CEL unless we get a short sharp squeeze that was an remember that was a short squeeze that we had on Friday yeah but these levels when everyone's cashing in their chips and total panic and furious redemptions you need to start considering what to buy when the when the bad kovat and economic numbers come out in the next few weeks and there's gonna be bit look I think one of the things that really drove the market down was when the president talked about so why people are really saying hey this is create lasts forever it may not do that or it may anticipate July so we got to be ready so then you probably say well Jim you sound more constructive than you Sam I mean the block it's so horrible well I'm a little more constructive constructive because I'm like the last big recession this time I find that the people in charge the real policy makers actually understand that something needs to be done see in 2007 the Fed and the White House were asleep at the wheel totally I'm willing to lift a finger to stop the oncoming disaster this time is different hey whether you love Trump or hate him it's not about him everyone want to make it about it I'm gonna take another tack I think it's about the professionals people like Fed chief Jerome Powell well I've been critical of but he can make more of a difference than anyone the White House when it comes economy what do I mean I first yesterday I derived the degree of comfort from the actions of the Fed chief that everyone seemed to pooh-pooh and make fun of today I mean give me a break with they were loving all the other stuff he was doing that I didn't like this I like the Fed made some historic moves last night and those moves worked we knew they work why because your bank open for business this morning and let me tell you something it probably wouldn't have all day I heard that your own pals emergency rate cuts and liquidity injection somehow failed because the stock market kind of literary are you kidding me hey it was good he wasn't trying to save the stock market read mistake you're trying to prevent bank runs try to make the Treasury market work believe me they were gonna happen the Fed had done this in 2007 he wouldn't had to quit with the worst downturn since the Great Depression pal took another financial crisis off the table thank heavens there will be plenty of losses they'll be locked tons of bankruptcies and ballooning unemployment but because pals got his eyes on the prize providing liquidity where it's needed we have one less horrible thing to worry about and that's a big horrible second this morning I spoke to Treasury secretary Steve munition about his plans to stabilize not not the markets but the small business base of this country again people think he wants to stabilize stocks that's not what the games about I want to stabilize Docs I can't nobody but he like what the Fed did and he made that point labeling something a recession doesn't really advance the ball I like that I mentioned them what we really have is a hiatus in business hopeful have so much Dimas that at some point we also will be able to look through the current weakness and started racing companies great balance sheets that can thrive when the hiatus is over or when the numbers level off it was remembered trying to flatten the curve I know it's too early for all that stuff we've taken out the lows from December 2018 but this panic is much worse than that panic because this time there won't be huge layoffs in bankruptcies that never got to it last time because the Fed Chase's view hopefully though senator in addition speaker Pelosi can agree to a giant stimulus package that will time working people over until we contain the virus and by the way could someone understand you know the payroll tax deduction that's good if you have a job now after 1099 and not if you don't have a job so they got to think a little bigger down there wish I were down there just knock some heads together we get this thing straight now put it all together and I think there are real opportunities developing over with missus think Bernie Sanders you I've developed me out there with the averages down 30 percent from the highs the VIX fear gates highest level ever worst day since 87 a day that felt a lot like today when I traded it so yes there are opportunities here but there now and you won't be able to catch them using broad index funds this is a time to pick individual winners and losers it's 60 percent of stocks are own fee is some sort of index fund for years we've been told we're morons for trying to pick stops and the best you can do is hope to mirror the performance supporter averages but the problem with the index funds is you never Lyon both the winners and losers and the difference between winners and losers has become a to start for that to make any sense that's when the opportunity comes in people there are many industries that are truly on the ropes here and I expect them to remain on the ropes for a long time unless they fall flat on the canvas if you invest in S&P 500 index fund you have to in the pad the very bad the disasters and small group of easy identify winners why own all the losers I don't want to own any of the airline stocks to you this feels a lot like the aftermath of 9/11 nobody wanted to fly and the industry was crippled sure they eventually bounced back but only after 15 billion dollar bailout we're only on one maybe day three of what's looking like a total collapse in air travel don't try to be here or there of course where the president stands behind them 100% I don't want anything airspace either now with Boeing struggling debt being downgraded that's it that's a bad one that's like 2007 I know we should want the sale well it's another problem I can't if he's driving up a Saudi Arabia and Russia are flooding the world with supply you don't want to own any of the oils here to super bounce back you just hope they don't bleed into all the other parts of the finance world same goes restaurants entertainment I just got word from your city we have to close a restaurant in our bar too many people gathering I wish and social distancing makes this whole group on investable Penn National Gaming is the paradigm they give this great hook up with barstool for sports betting but now that remains canceled there's nothing to bet on this stock was at $39 last month and eight bucks today someone upgraded Las Vegas Sands today really retail same problem nobody feels like buy an anything unless ordered from Amazon that will change them I think there will soon be so much excess inventory that the off price houses will be able to offer cash grab consumers some truly incredible deals but we're not there yet for the moment the whole industry is toxic consider Macy's is now fall in 75% sports the 22.5% you calls us down 74% 14% yield Nordstrom's all 60 percent nine percent yield nearly those stocks are all screaming that the earnings are in danger and dividends wants to be cut retail so disaster with the exception of the largest companies I know the banks are cheap and now that the feds take an action I believe they'll come out hole given that the feds willing to throw money in but until other people start agreeing with me there'll be soso investments at best more like you fodder for the Bears before the bottom no it's not 2009 when many of these banks were in single digits however they lost the principal support when they pledged to stop buying back stock let that sink him autos hum please please other parts suppliers now commodity candles enough paper cannot steal now I think maybe I'm too bearish I don't well let's listen Jim federally you have since CEO of Dow Chemical later in the show tap too hard a probably too soon although I said last week buying the fastest growing text is often the best way to play a spring-loaded rebound but you have to be prepared to lose money before we get there and I bet you 99% of you aren't willing to and you better start learning how to do it with all these sectors that are too tough though and if the data is just getting going to get worse and it is we're gonna see the denominator get big all that other stuff it's like Jesus like algebra why have I tell you to be opportunistic okay did you know that the makers of literally everything you might find the supermarkets sold their stocks drop in unison this morning that got hammered because they're part of the MCS then the stock pickers came in the packaged food companies rally furiously on the August and and so many the drug stocks did well they keep back their gains from late afternoon some of them close to big I like ConAgra I know needle in the haystack but come on we look we look for needles what do we do here okay I think we're going to get some big Khurana virus numbers now that we're really gonna test people's strength and earnest we get more lockdowns like in San Francisco we may not even be able to shop although I think grocery stores will still be open we'll hear her readiness reports from every part of the country because we underestimated how bad it was gonna be but well some of us did but today gave us a template for what works when the economy's on hiatus the stocks and companies that make parts we can't live without check out your medicine cabinet check your fridge or look at your pantry bottom line honorific day where the averages are down 12 to 13 percent we shouldn't we got to stop buying average instead we should buy quality recession-proof stocks because that's what works when the economies won't hate us time a whole time to hold your nose and buy a couple of winners get started and flu losers I say no more selling no more selling without a big update like we had on Friday to get you better prices then you can expect into the teeth of this panic let's go to channel hi oh please Jay well we got ya how's it going well Jeff had looks slightly better days but you know I'm still around how are you I'm doing well thank you hey I got a quick question for you interested in adding silver or gold into my portfolio trying to diversify up my investment just want to get your thoughts about the precious metal market right now in which that's the best way to invest in core people have given up in the precious metals because they think they were in a terrible deflationary storm and I say you know what I always find room for gold I think that you want to own gold and I don't mind that gold is going down I think you buy some right into this weakness I actually think the barrick gold bottoms and that's how it was by gol D my gosh you don't need if it's a proof tape right stick to the quality recession proof stocks as they come hey this is what you have to buy into those openings when we're frozen down 7% that's what worked it'll work again on man tonight America's capacity Technica rotavirus we get a big bump blue thermo Fisher after it receives an emergency okay put us up to five million test kits a week I've got this who's with the CEO then the head of CBS Health Net with Trump last week to discuss the ways to combat the corona virus I'm gonna talk about the company's latest issues and the teeth of demand crushing global pandemic how is it company like Dallas to see itself I'm talking with the CEO
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