Jim Cramer: Companies that can weather the coronavirus without government help will likely be a buy

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결론: 정부 지원 없이 코로나19 충격을 견딜 수 있는 기업이 매수 대상이며, 필수재 중심으로 현금이 많거나 배당과 현금흐름이 양호한 기업을 고르라는 주장이다. 정책 대응 평가: 재무 측면은 재무부와 연준이 2008년과 달리 잘 대응하고 있다고 평가한다. 바이러스 대응은 다른 주체의 몫이라고 선을 긋는다. 시장 기간 전망: 고틀리브 전 FDA 국장의 기본 시나리오인 4월 말~5월 초 정점을 언급하며, 투자자는 몇 주간 버틸 인내심이 필요하다고 본다. 종목 선별 기준: 1차는 현금이 많은 기업, 2차는 배당이 높고 현금흐름이 괜찮은 기업, 3차는 현금 압박이 있을 수 있는 기업 제외다. 필수/비필수 구분을 중시한다. 언급 종목과 방향: 베리존은 싸다고 보며 매수 쪽으로 언급했다. 프록터앤갬블은 배당수익률 2.74%가 충분치 않다고 평가했다. 달든(Darden)은 실적 발표를 앞두고 판단이 어렵다고 했다. 주의 업종: 소매, 레스토랑, 항공, 여행, 레저, 호텔은 평가가 어렵다고 보며 리스크가 크다고 언급했다. 조건과 리스크: 고유가·정유사처럼 필수성이 불확실한 업종은 신중해야 하며, 대상 자산 중 직접 예측 발언은 없다.

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01. it's about attitude Carl the attitude in 2007-2008 was you know what it serves you right that was Treasury and the Fed was were good what's the issue this is not the case we've got a Federal Reserve that clearly understands what went wrong in 2009 we have a trader who is that who is the Treasury secretary who is saying yeah absolutely we're going to be able to deal with these things and yes the one thing that then I talked about is how is what is the ratio of people who get sick versus people who spread it I mean they're all trying to say look we're going to handle the financial side we can't handle the virus side that's other people and while Rick says that it's the dollar and other people saying it's commercial paper believe me what they're saying is we're gonna hold it together financially but you got a hook they'll be hold it together biologically and that's what I think that when we get in them in the in the weeds as we worry about individual programs because this is not like 2007 they are listening they are hearing what Rick is saying you know saying you know what we're gonna we're interesting to do i even instead about hospital beds okay its defense to follow through on on that line of thinking Jim if we go with Gottlieb's it sounds like his base case which is a peak in late April or early May people are investors markets are going to need to have stamina for a matter of weeks right absolutely so what you're looking for I would say our companies that are selling through cash or companies that have the ability to survive no matter what because there's demand for their products and I think that's the way you want to analyze the stock you want to say essential non-essential essential non-essential and we know a lot of companies are non-essential is the third tier oil company that we all knew as being say a $40 stock is it essential now a $2 no we're going to speak to Phil about the question is we need an airline system nobody's denying it but do we need an airline system where the companies may help make a lot of money well that's not what the president's thinking about and I think we have to think all right what company without help from the government will get through to the other side and that is probably gonna be a buy you know okay you have to just pick you have to look at the the components and there are things that I think again that I do want to buy I mean I think that Verizon is cheap I think that I'm trying to figure out whether Verizon 50 yeah it's okay it's not bad let's take a look at Proctor use if you buy Proctor here you're getting two point seven four that's not enough I'm looking I'm doing you own analysis I'm looking for stocks that have been accidentally high-yield because their stocks have fallen and I'm looking for stocks that are not appreciably that far from their lows within the last two years the reason for being in this new world order that when the smoke clears when the illness goes away they're they're necessary Darden reports this week I mean that's a tougher one I mean do we need Olive Garden's I think we need those people who have jobs who work there I think that that's a secondary your first check down if this is going to be football your first check down is to is to look for companies that have a lot of cash that are gonna be needed after the illnesses conquered your second one is to say alright what companies have good dividends that have decent cash flow that I think can get through this and then your third one is to say I don't want any of these companies because they could be cash-strapped and they are thinking about some retail retailers restaurants airline travel leisure hotel those are very hard to reconcile you