저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 코로나19 확산 추이가 당분간 시장을 지배하며, 이번 반등은 과매도 기술적 반등일 뿐 지속 가능하지 않다는 판단. 시장 상황: 전날 다우 1985포인트, S&P500 9.29%, 나스닥 9.35% 급등을 언급하며 이는 극단적 과매도에 따른 반등이라고 설명. 10년물 금리는 2.87%. 코로나 전망: 한국형(검사 확대) 대응과 이탈리아형 급확산 중 미국이 이탈리아 궤적을 따르고 있다고 우려하나, 한국형 궤적으로 가면 시장에 긍정적. 확진자·사망자 추이를 면밀히 봐야 한다고 강조. 정책 및 유동성: 민간 검사 확대 협의체(월마트·타깃·월그린·CVS 등)를 긍정 평가. 므누신 재무장관의 유동성 공급 발언을 1987년 블랙먼데이 때 연준 대응에 비유하며 시장 안정 기대감 표명. 재정 지원이 없으면 서비스 중심 경제가 위협받는다고 경고. 경기 리스크: 경기침체는 올 수 있으나 금융위기로 이어지지는 않을 것이라는 시각. 아마존 중심 경제는 지속 가능하지 않다는 견해. 치료제 관련: 리제네론, 일라이릴리를 치료제 개발 유력 후보로 언급. 바이오주 관련 긍정 뉴스가 아직 없다는 점을 지적하며 치료제 발견 시 급등 가능성 열어둠. 투자 전략: 급등한 금요일 후장 반등 추격매수는 지양. 안전한 배당주를 하락 시 분할 매수하라는 조언. 단기 랠리 지속성에는 회의적. 리스크: 검사·치료제 불확실성, 재정 지원 지연, 감염 확산 시 추가 매도 압력.
다듬은 글
look we know had a great rally in the last half-hour but you have to accept you and me that the world has changed and we need to change with it from now on when we come in on a Monday we're not going to be focused on sales or earnings of companies but we're going to be focused on coronavirus infections and fatalities these days the pandemic controls the action you can get a bounce like we had today one of the greatest bounces I've ever seen dal gained 1985 points SMB climbed 9.2 9% Nasdaq jumped nine point three five percent yes those are not mistakes all the backs of an extremely oversold position Bo's ten years a two point eight seven percent yield for the Dow coming in today and the White House has put together a private-sector coalition to boost testing but until this virus is contained or cured or just naturally levels out you should expect much of this game to be repealed more selling and if we don't get the fiscal help needed to preserve the rudiments of our service based economy I think today is going to end up being a good day to sell and it already happened maybe Monday let's be real we can't sustain a meaningful rally here as opposed to the late Friday afternoon not to be trusted short squeeze until we have the Cobra 19 situation under control and we can't get things under control without tests kiss and some sort of antibody medicine that triumphs over this scourge really talk about that later in the show we know there are two paradigms here we've got South Korea okay which is doing it right right we have Italy which has been totally overwhelmed so far we seem to be following the Italian trajectory I think post NBA maybe that's what changed things that looks like we're following more of a South Korean trajectory but we had to be watching these Co good numbers like hawk because of this trend continues I predict pain but if we give me more like South Korea this Marky cats fire especially if the Treasury secretary and the House Speaker hammer out a deal to tide over the entire sphere of commerce and protect the otherwise soon-to-be unemployed working person it is that binary we simply won't be on terra firma as long as the kroner numbers keep surging and dr.
Tony Fauci has to come out and not reassure us cuz he can't that the illness is ten times more deadly than the regular flu it's a fact who wants to go outside when every authority figures telling you to stay home you can't go out to eat or see a game if any games are still being played and stay at home at the same time the Amazon economy which is what we're developing is not a sustainable economy even if it's great for Amazon shareholders now we did have a couple positives today I like the private sector coalition that came together to boost testing hate him I like him Trump put together impressive group in no time flat you could be cynical about Walmart and Target and Walgreens and CVS but after a while there's too many to be cynical about and for the stock market purposes we did hear some magic words this morning when Treasury secretary Steve minuchin said they hope provide all the liquidity the markets need to remain orderly when the Fed make that exact same statement in the crash of 87 terrible Tuesday that caused the market it turn around and it never looked back listen there will be liquidity available whatever we need to do whatever the Fed needs to do whatever Congress needs to do we will provide liquidity and this will be an entire whole of government approach led by the president that's it that's what you need to hear that's what made this market go up really even if we have a recession that means we won't have a financial crisis and even if we can just keep the system going there's always the possibility that Regeneron or UI lilly those are the ones that are closest can come up with the treatment for the virus I don't go yet us something somewhere I expect an answer from them as soon as this month that said I don't like that none of these biotechs has been leaking good news believe me if they had a real breakthrough I think they just stopped testing it and just give it to everybody immediately on the other hand Lynch life for the C / General on and the first guess we had on the show 15 years ago when the stock was a 5 it's now 4 to 65 says he's confident in his approach and moving fast Lilly's equally confident she'll hear later in the show remember there's always a possibility something can go right if somebody comes up with a viable treatment you wish you bought stocks even as the crazy exalted levels we saw at the close when the shorts panic and the algo funds exacerbated the upside just as they aggravated the downside yesterday I don't like either side by the way I don't like how it goes up like it's only gonna goes down like this that's why I think you need to buy stocks though with safe dividends here as well as highest growth tax although the key is to buy them grabs you in the way down not chase like today on a vicious artificial close up I hate that kind of Friday rally why because it is not sustainable so calming cost is going forward after this insanely positive day alm you
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