Jim Cramer: There's trillions of dollars on the sideline, how can you not start buying?

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결론: 2020년 3월 하락장에서 Cramer는 반등 가능성은 인정하나 실물경기 침체와 실적 하향을 이유로 추가 하락 가능성(S&P 약 150포인트)을 열어두며, 과거 저점 매수 사례를 들어 저가 매수 기회를 강조한다. 과거 대공황급 폭락 사례(1987년 블랙먼데이)를 회상하며, 당시 장중 바닥이 확정되지 않았고 연준 유동성 발표 이후 반등했다는 점을 설명한다. 교훈은 장 초반 반등 후 급락이 있을 수 있다는 것이다. 경기 판단: 서비스업 비중이 약 2/3인 미국 경제 특성상 침체 상태로 본다. S&P500은 2018년 12월 저점(약 2,345)을 아직 웃돌고 있어 약 150포인트 추가 하락 가능성을 언급한다. 실적 전망: 이익 추정치(EPS)가 크게 하향되어야 하며, 추정치 하향 국면에서는 주가 상승이 제한된다고 본다. 종목 언급: 디즈니(Disney)는 테마파크 폐쇄에도 불구하고 매수 기회로 본다(매수 의견). CEO 행동: 3M CEO의 자사주 매수처럼 경영진 매수가 더 나와야 기업 신뢰가 회복된다고 봤다. 의료 관련: 코로나19 치료제 관련 기대(클리블랜드클리닉, 로슈 등)를 언급하며 과학자들에 대한 신뢰를 표명한다. 자금 흐름: 대기 자금(sideline cash) 수조 달러가 있으며 이것이 매수로 이어질 수 있다고 주장한다. 리스크: 추가 하락 가능성, 실적 하향 지속, 경기 침체 장기화. 워런 버핏의 '공포 시 매수' 원칙을 인용하며, 2차 세계대전 때 매수 사례를 든다. 출연자 전망: 단기 반등 후 재테스트 가능성을 인정하지만 장기적으로는 매수 기회라는 입장.

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01. we're gonna get some gains here at least gain something back from yesterday yeah I mean I listen to Mikey so terrific I'd call back as I was a hedge fund manager during the period of the crash in 87 it was very interesting because the crash went from two 2246 in the dow down to 1725 on Black Monday and what people don't remember that own terrible Tuesday there really was no price discovery we put it piece it together Jim Stewart I she pieced it together and we came up with about 1,400 at one point until the the Fed came out and said listen we will give you all the liquidity one then we ended up rallying 400 points went to 1841 so we did open up then down and then finish above where we were on Black Monday and then the following day we were also up too so the lesson was if it didn't replay what happened then is open up then go down precipitously and then come back because the Fed said something I don't know if the Fed will do something today but just be aware that it was not a perfect bottom on terrible Tuesday well that's what I wanted to ask you which is to say do you think we've hit a bottom how do you think about even understanding when and where that could be well look I mean I think we're in a recession and Isis people in a recession because there are very few places we're a service economy two-thirds of the economy and I don't know I'm not seeing a lot of people doing what are part of the service economy so we went to down to about 2003 345 in the S&P during the bear market that was in the 12 24 2018 period we're still above that for the S&P so it's entirely possible that we could lose another 150 points in the S&P just to get back to we where when we thought we were going to have a recession so I think that's reasonable again it was a great buying opportunity at the bottom of terrible Tuesday here would be obviously terrible Friday we if we reproduce that but not the opening in the open it was a sucker play yeah he did I saw your comments earlier that you know you're never comfortable after a day like yesterday with with any upward movement but we have been locked up limit right so does that give you any take any than that that this could be a lasting bouncing that was overdone yesterday man I think it would be overdone him with the speed that it did it but I think that there are a lot of components where the Ernie's have to estimates have to come down a great deal and when you have estimate cut stocks can't go higher and you take Disney as a classic example I think Disney's a buy today because I'm waiting for them to close the theme parks and they did today but there were always people who don't know about these things Joe and they say holy cow they closed the parks right and they sell the stock even though it might be a terrific buying opportunity I wish we had more CEOs step up to the plate and say you know what I want to buy my stock as we did there was a mid day in terrible Tuesday the 3m CEO came out and said you know what this is a great opportunity I'm gonna buy a lot of stock we're not getting it and maybe that's because a lot of CEOs bought stock higher but I'd like to see business confidence pick up because business leaders show that it's the right time well not seeing that hope springs eternal dim and and I don't want to be given that item but when you have on the same day that you have what was really as scary felt almost as bad as 87 it in terms of flushing and it coincides with all the the closings that we are seeing people haven't factored in any of the closings and they they just came one after another yesterday and it coincided with them I saw I don't know you'd probably be right we you always have to retest the lows but that just seemed overdone it maybe we get some positive that you're the Cleveland Clinic the Roche the I don't know whatever we have I have tremendous faith in our scientists and I think dr.

02. Faust you've done an amazing job I will point out Joe how many there's trillions of dollars in the sidelines waiting and waiting and waiting well they've got what they've been waiting for they've got the opportunity that they've said no to how can you not start buying your unless you just are so fearful and remember that is when warren buffett says you must buy he bought in world war two and look like we were gonna lose the war all right Sterling's coming on now Jim so just stay tuned like Barry you