저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2020년 3월 시장 폭락은 아직 바닥이 아니며, 실물경제 충격이 수개월~수년 지속될 수 있으므로 현금·유동성을 우선하라는 견해. 시장 상황: 시장은 극심한 혼란과 공포 상태이며, 사회적 행동 변화는 아직 충분하지 않다고 봄. 사회적 공포가 사회적 거리두기로 이어지는 것은 긍정적이라고 주장. 포트폴리오·비상장 투자: 포트폴리오 CEO들에게 현금과 유동성이 가장 중요하다고 전달. 이번 위기는 금융위기(GFC)와 닷컴버블이 동시에 온 것과 유사해 수년간 지분에 대한 매수세가 없을 수 있다고 경고. 바닥 전망: 18일 만에 바닥이 형성되는 경우는 드물며, 16~17일 만에 약세장 고점에서 저점까지 하락하는 과거 사례와 달리 이번 하락은 전 산업으로 번지는 광범위한 충격이라 바닥은 아직 멀었다고 봄. 실물경제 근거: 여행산업 및 연관 산업이 전 세계 GDP의 약 9조 달러 규모이며, 여행이 2분기 동안 50~60% 감소하면 세계 GDP의 약 5%가 사라진다고 추산. 이 파급효과는 수개월~수분기 지속될 것으로 전망. 정책 전망: 연방정부의 대규모·결단력 있는 개입 없이는 침체가 수년간 지속될 수 있음. 금융위기 때의 TARP 수준 이상의 재정 투입이 필요하며, 천연자원 기업 부채 1.6조 달러(정크 또는 그 직전 등급) 등을 근거로 제시. 연준의 회사채·항공·에너지 매입 가능성 언급. 방역 비교: 중국(강력한 통제), 한국(광범위 검사), 이탈리아(전국 셧다운)의 사례를 들며, 미국은 세 가지 중 어느 것도 실행하지 못했다고 평가. 연방정부는 방역 주체가 아니라 주지사·지역 보건당국이 책임져야 하며, 샌타클래라·샌마테오 카운티의 조치를 긍정 평가. 출연자 의견(Ron, Gottlieb 등): 항공편 취소율이 아시아에서 최대 85%에 달하는 등 실물 충격이 크다는 데 동의. 9·11 이후 TSA처럼 정부가 경제 안전망을 제공해야 한다는 의견 제시. 리스크: 연방 차원의 대응이 지연되거나 정치적 갈등이 지속되면 수년간의 침체 위험. 방역이 실패하면 경기 회복 시점이 더 늦어짐.
다듬은 글
Let me ask you first, as an investor before we talk hoops, um what are you telling as a venture capitalist your portfolio companies and how are you as a tech investor thinking about all of this? And Mark Cuban was on a little while ago, said he was actually buying some stocks. I'm curious as to what you're doing and what you're telling people.
Well, um I think that there's two reactions that I have. You know, I think when I look at what's going on in the world, what I would tell you is that the markets are in complete sort of turmoil and panic. And socially, people um really haven't had meaningful behavior change or reactions. And I think unfortunately uh I've been telling people that it needs to be the opposite.
That, you know, a little bit of social panic is actually a good thing right now, especially if it leads to the social distancing and the type of or the things that I own have kind of hung in there. Um although for how much longer I don't know because I I suspect that we're, you know, not anywhere near the lows.
Uh but on the private side, I've been telling all of our CEOs that um this is a very very untested moment in our history. Uh it's not like the Great Financial Crisis. Um it's not like the dot-com bubble. Uh it's kind of like both at the same time. It's the severity and the depth of the Great Financial Crisis and the long refractory period of the dot-com bubble.
So, that means that you could be years without finding a real bid for your equity. Um and so, uh cash and liquidity really are the most important things right now. Those are um those are pretty sobering thoughts. I mean, can you sort of put us on the ground in in the valley? Um you know, Santa Clara has been been hit from from this.
Yeah. What what's What What are they talking about there? Well, here's the thing. Look, I think that there are, you know, periods of time where there are errors of omission. And then there are periods of time where there are errors of commission. And I think as of yesterday we are firmly in a moment where every day that we don't decisively act is an error of commission.
And at the federal level, you know, I think the president was actually right to sort of, you know, stop, block the borders. Unfortunately, he sort of arbitrarily picked Europe. And I think that doesn't make any sense really because you either block them all or you block none. And, you know, all Europe has done is proven that, you know, they're trying to create transparency through testing.
Every other border, I think are just, you know, lagging behind in testing capability and in awareness of the of the actual virality of the disease. And so, you know, to allow people in and out, it just doesn't do anything. So, it's a symbolic gesture that that I don't think stops anything in any meaningful way.
So, if the federal government right now is sort of in the in the land of commission, I think the responsibility will fall to governors. And really, it'll fall to the local health department. And this is where I see some really great things happening locally. San Mateo County, Santa Clara County, where we live, are responding decisively.
They're responding quickly. They're doing the hard things. They're sacrificing their local economies in hope for this greater good to prevent the social spread of this novel coronavirus. And so, schools have been dismissed. Folks are working from home as much as possible. The problem is now we need the federal government to step in and provide the social and safety infrastructure that all Americans deserve.
They deserve them every day before today. But from today on out they absolutely deserve it. The richest country in the world has no excuse for not stepping up and taking care of every single man, woman, and child in America. You said um earlier that we're nowhere near a bottom. Those were your words.
When do you think we get there and how are you going to know when we are there? you know, um bottoms are not created 18 days after something like this starts. So, you can go back in time and look at every meaningful drawdown in the markets, but when you go tip to tail in a bear market in 16 or 17 days, um and they are brought by things that start as an exogenous event, but then very quickly morph to a broad set of externalities to a large set of constituents.
What we're dealing with now is a broad-based market decline, um broad-based impacts to GDP. So, you know, for example, if you just look at travel, the travel industry and and all its related interconnected businesses, you know, are almost 9 trillion dollars of the world's economy. Now, if you think you see travel trade off by 50 to 60% for two quarters, uh that's 5% of the world's GDP that's going to go up in smoke.
And so, these knock-on effects, I think, are multi-month. They're probably multi-quarter. And again, I go back to how I started. In the absence of massive and decisive federal intervention that that creates confidence in the markets, it has the potential to be multi-year. And this is where I hope, you know, the rancor and the partisanship ends today and people really in the federal bureaucracy figure this out.
But if they don't, then the drawdown, I think, tip to tail will be as bad as the great financial crisis except unlike it we're not going to see some clever cute V-shape recovery. We're going to see what we saw after the dot com bubble burst which is years of malaise. I um I want to get some reaction to what you're saying here from our our panel because they're they're listening intently and I can tell from their faces that they want to react to what you're saying.
Ron and you're the one I I looked at here. Um that's a a very uh sad and sobering view if it comes true. Yeah and and listen I it's hard to disagree with the numbers with respect to the impact on global GDP when you look at some of the airline traffic numbers coming out of Asia you're seeing cancellations of up to 85% of flights.
So this is profound and and when you start talking about travel restrictions in the United States in in Asia in Europe um this really puts a freeze on the movement of people and potentially the movement of goods because those people who are delivering goods will not be allowed off the boat as as we heard from the president last night.
So the multi-year process um I think depends on whether or not we as as was said get a forceful response. And and where Scott Gottlieb said, you know, we shouldn't nationalize the response to this after 9/11 we nationalized certain responses like TSA and things like that where the government stepped in and provided both a psychological and a substantive safety net to the economy.
In the absence of that and I mean full-blown as as Chamath suggests as well then yes. The bazooka doesn't exist because as was just pointed out this extends the entire economy. It's not just the financial industry. It's not just the the oil industry. It's every single business. say to you is if Eric Rosengren who suggested the Fed may buy different assets or may expand its asset purchases that means corporate bonds.
That means airlines. That means energy. They may redefine that intervention process. but but there's no intervention when people aren't leaving their house to go eat dinner, to go to work. You guys have to keep You guys have to keep something in mind. Look, we've seen three important examples, and I think we would be foolish to ignore them.
Example number one, China acted in within weeks in a completely repressive and authoritarian way, but it worked. Do you believe the numbers? Hold on Hold on a second. It It doesn't It doesn't matter whether you believe the numbers or not. The point is that I think that directionally they they have gotten this thing under control.
Example number two, South Korea acted in a very different way, but with broad-based testing. It seems to have worked. Number three, Italy reacted by a broad-based, federally instituted, top-down shutdown of everything. We don't know yet whether that works. We have done none of those three things. We don't have the capacity for number one, politically speaking, or culturally speaking.
We haven't been able to do number two, and we have no idea whether number three can even be effective at this point in the game. So, when you put those three things together, the only thing we can now start to do, in my opinion, is really start to map out the level of stimulus that the federal government needs to inject in the system.
It will be TARP level. It'll probably be more than that. For example, you know, you have 1.6 trillion dollars of debt that's junk or just above junk just in uh natural resource companies in the United States, which also happen to be the largest employer in the United States. So, now you could have both, you know, an employment shock where hundreds of thousands of good American hardworking citizens are furloughed or fired at the same time as these companies become insolvent, and somebody needs to step in to buy upwards of a trillion dollars of debt.
That's just in one industry. Uh Chamath, um I did want to talk to you about the NBA, but I feel like we should do that another day. I think we we've gotten our arms around what the professional sports leagues are are trying to do to get their their arms around it. We're we're we're thinking of all of of everybody in those industries and and the fallout not only from the team level, but to the vendors, the the folks who work in the arenas who have already been affected.
Let's do that another time. I hope that we can talk to you again. I do appreciate you coming to the phone. Thanks, Scott.
Comments 0