저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 영상 전반은 루시드·GM 등 전기차 기업에 부정적이고, 테슬라에는 낙관적이며, 파업 장기화는 테슬라에 유리하다는 입장이다. [루시드] 3분기 생산량이 전년 대비 32%, 직전 분기 대비 29% 감소했고 재고가 쌓이고 있다. 차량 가격 7만5천~8만 달러대로 고가 수요가 약하며, 올해 주가는 25% 이상 하락했다. 패널들은 루시드가 고가 브랜드에 머물러 확장성이 부족하다고 평가했다. [GM·전기차 수요] GM이 미시간 공장의 전기 실버라도·시에라 EV 생산을 늦추며 '진화하는 EV 수요'에 맞춘다고 밝혔다. 포드도 라이트닝 생산 교대를 줄였다. 설문에서는 응답자 57%가 EV 구매 가능성이 낮다고 답했다. 금리와 인플레이션 부담으로 고가 EV 수요가 약하고, 픽업형 EV는 배터리가 커 충전 부담이 크다는 지적이 나왔다. [테슬라 실적 전망] 실적 발표를 앞두고 가장 중요한 지표는 자동차 매출총이익률(177% 범위 여부)과 인도량이다. 가격 인하는 대략 95% 끝났을 것으로 보이며, 중국 시장의 가격 인하는 더 이상 이어지지 않아야 한다고 봤다. 모델3 리프레시 수요와 사이버트럭 생산 시작(10월 말~11월 초), 인도 개시(이번 분기), 연 4~6만 대 규모 수요가 주요 관전 포인트다. [파업 영향] 아이브스는 UAW 파업이 디트로이트 3사의 비용을 높이고 하이브리드·내연기관 의존이 장기적으로 수익성을 잠식한다고 봤다. 다만 파업이 끝나면 자동차 생산이 재개되므로 일시적 요인에 그칠 수 있다는 질문도 나왔다. [영상 결론] 테슬라 2023년 인도 목표는 약 180만 대, 자동차 매출총이익률은 약 17.7%로 제시되었다. 전반적으로 테슬라는 볼륨 전략에서 계속 우위를 보일 것이라는 시각이다.
다듬은 글
shares of lucid heading downhill this morning after third quarter vehicle production fell 32% from a year ago and nearly 29% from the last quarter GM now following forward in the sense that they are actually uh pushing back production of the EV Silverado um and also the sier Toyota Honda Tesla and the others are loving this strike because they know the longer it goes on the better it is for them in the long term why is it so good news for Tesla I mean eventually the workers are going to come back event I mean whether it's a week or even a month and they're going to start turning out cars again that are going to compete with Tesla so it feels like isn't it more of a temporary hiccup than anything more profound here all that more so let's get to it today Tesla has its Q3 2023 earnings call and as you can see in the pre-market Tesla's probably going to have a pretty down day I'd go so far as to wager that the rest of the week will not be a positive one for for Tesla but I am shocked that Tesla is still sitting at 25277 for the week Tesla is currently down 42% and looking at the 3mon chart Tesla's down almost 133% year to date still over 100% gains I don't think people appreciate how difficult it is to produce battery electric vehicles profitably Tesla makes this look so easy there's a few manufacturers finding out the hard way chairs of lucid heading down Hill this morning after third quarter vehicle production fell 32% from a year ago and nearly 29% from the last quarter the EV maker delivered 1,457 of its air sedans in Q3 that's compared to, 144 in the previous quarter shares of lucid are down more than 25% so far this year you know um Michelle when you think about lucid story there are really two key concerns here the inventory that we just flagged right now yes they delivered more but at the end of the day that means they're still accumulating inventory that's not a good thing for a company like Lucid but also when you think about cost right now we're talking about cars that are upwards of 75,000 to $80,000 at a time where consumers are increasingly sort of tightening their wallets a bit and you have to wonder what the appetite is for a car like Lucid a luxury EV in this environment well I'll tell you it's non-existent not for what it cost to produce this luxury brand vehicle lucid's been around for a while now and what really grinds my gears is that I don't see them trying to make a Next Generation platform to increase their total addressable Market if they plan to be the Ferrari of battery electric vehicles that's fine they're just not going to achieve that goal it's true I mean when you think of other companies of course namely Tesla is the one that always comes to mind when we think of EVS but when you think of their delivery targets and versus the cost that you see for a vehicle like elcid I mean it's concerning and when they report earnings I believe it's November 7eventh these are going to be some of the questions that people have because the way that they actually have their supply line they do a lot of the the Pieces come and they get assembled in Saudi Arabia so you have this this much longer supply chain here whereas we're seeing we're seeing uh Tesla being a lot more Nimble about how it's shipping out it how it's shipping out its Vehicles so if it's still producing less than expected at this point as you're al already seeing some of these Legacy car makers pulling ahead and wrapping up production Lucid really being caught on the back foot here yeah I mean Tesla has larger scales so not sure if it's it's not necessarily an Apples to Apples comparison but you're certainly right I mean there's a lot of competition in the EV space Lucid has always argued they're competing on the higher end but as we see consumers sort of rethink where they want to be spending their money uh with other car makers having those Federal incentives in place you have to wonder um you know how uphill that struggle is for Lucid moving forward this whole rig roll looks a little too difficult for Lucid as a company the cars are absolute stunners but there is no way this should sustainable at this current scale another day another new development that EVS are not doing so hot right now yeah you know uh our head of news miles was talking about how whether I WR the same story over again but this time use GM well in this case GM now following forward in the sense that they are actually uh pushing back production of the EV Silverado um and also the Sierra uh EV that they're going to make at this at this plan in Ryan Michigan they said that they want to quote better manage capital investment with aligning with evolving EV demand that's sort of the big thing they're evolving EV demand potentially what Ford is doing when they cut a production shift for the lightning they're not seeing that demand there potentially maybe they're kind of like cutting cutting Supply rethinking pricing and maybe sort of changing the strategy maybe GM is seeing that as another as a harbinger of what they might see in the future they're not going to they're not going to stop making the truck they're actually making right now in a different plant but they not they're not going to expand as much they thought they were going to evolving EV demand that is one hell of a political term it's no coincidence that they're not seeing the fervor like you would with the rivan r1t or the Cyber truck as it's about to launch consumers aren't frothing at the mouth to get a hold of one of your vehicles that alone should tell you something Ford GM they're trying to make lateral moves into the battery electric vehicle space and I mean why not they already have the successful consumer with their regular trucks all you have to do is get those consumers to buy these new battery electric vehicle trucks problem is them don't want to change you have to make it irresistible a simple lateral change just means they have to do more work to enjoy your product give your consumers something more outlandishly better when it comes to Performance functionality change up the style of your truck the r1t the Cyber truck they built these vehicles from the ground up when you start from such a solid base you're able to then progress forward the next generation of the rivan is going to be built off the back of the success of the r1t Tesla has three generations of battery electric vehicles that they can build and expand on when they're creating the Cyber truck Foundation like that you just can't acquire overnight there's no wonder your vehicles are not drumming up the same kind of excitement seems like being careful with where they're investing at a time where they do have the strikes ongoing too right like just as far as GM only has so much money to go around like all companies only have so much money to go around and when you have less workers literally working for you and you're trying to think about how to be more efficient maybe EVS because isn't the space of efficiency for these car companies right now especially the car companies that have been creating traditional vehicles for so long right it's not like they're Tesla and they're cutting back on EV production so they're cutting back on all car production they're still producing other cars they're just saying you know we got to be a little bit slower with the EV thing and as prus said reminds us of our Yahoo finance survey right where people weren't that willing to move over to EVS we were all pretty surprised by those numbers yeah that the demand picture I think is very interesting I mean you're seeing on your screen now I mean 57% said they're not likely to purchase an EV in our survey uh compared to 11% that were unsure and 31% that were likely and some of the big concerns here revolves around pricing revolves around infrastructure driving range another big factor there and it makes me wonder if we overestimated how many people would be interested in EV is and you know the the tax credits we can get with those cars I think that all is going to factor into it because right now with interest rates so high a lot of volatility in the economy right now spending a ton of money on an EV just doesn't seem top of mind for consumers yeah two big things you guys mentioned so interest rates high prices those are sort of Weighing on demand if you get these cars are cheaper they' probably sell better right but a big thing I think is there's a bifurcation between your model wise and small smaller EVs and your big pickup trucks they're more money huge batteries they need to be filled up filled up with power probably more frequently and our charging infrastructure just isn't there yet so I think there's more concern about that whereas a model y can go 300 320 miles you don't have to worry about charging so I was going to ask that I mean traditionally like we think of pickup trucks as kind of gas guzzlers right or is it the same for EVS they take up a lot more battery and therefore like range anxiety people you don't want to get a pickup EV you'd rather get a model y I mean for instance the model y probably has about a battery that's probably half the size of a F-150 extended range battery um and they probably get around similar range but the model y will get a bit bit more right depending on situation so you're you're basically your efficiency is half um meaning you want you got to charge more it's going to take more going to cost more to fill up the battery so it might be the fact that that just that use case of an EV pickup not going to happen or not happening right now not happening right now cybertruck efficiency will blow everything out of the water Tesla is reporting its earnings tomorrow after the close of trading all eyes will be focused on margins after reported low delivery numbers and cut prices earlier this year A lot has changed since the last earnings call with the UAW walking out on the big three automakers here in the US and many saying the strike will benefit Tesla including Ford's executive chairman Toyota Honda Tesla and the others are loving this strike because they know the longer it goes on the better it is for them it's bringing IES W bush managing director hey Dan good to see you you are bullish on Tesla um you know we've heard a lot of rhetoric that the strike is going to be good for Tesla and I guess I'm trying to figure out exactly how that is going to play out and whether we're going to see it in the numbers I mean look it's good for the long term because the biggest competition was coming from 4 GM Stanis in the US you'll be able to make plenty of money selling hybrids and internal combustion engines back of the napkin math probably for the next 5 years or so a hard Choice must be made and it seems like GM and Ford are taking the easy way out my only message to them don't be asking for no F bailout as we approach the end of the decade and that's why it's really been a shampagne on Ice moment for Tesla relative to this but clearly look they have their own challenges that they're trying to navigate but the UAW torpedo has really been a disaster for Detroit wait but so explain this to me um because why in the long term why is it so good news for Tes I mean eventually the workers are going to come back event I mean whether it's a week or even a month and they're going to start turning out cars again that are going to compete with Tesla so it's feels like isn't it more of a temporary hiccup than anything more profound here Julie come now even if there was no UAW strike Tesla was running laps around the American market so much so in fact that Tesla could halt everything they could shut down every Factory for a couple of years in GM Ford they would still need a telescope to see where Tesla is today and that's before the strike yeah Julie I mean that's obviously a great point but I think the bigger thing is what the deal ultimately looks like what the cost in takes are going to be for GM for do they have to raise prices two three $4,000 that's a huge Advantage for them relative to Tesla and others and I think that's really been the frustration here just as Mary and Farley are building this Eevee transformational strategy the UAW really comes with a deal that is you know what I view is just not feasible just given the business model and the easy answer would be to scale back on your battery electric vehicle plans and make as much money as humanly possible with hybrids and internal combustion engines I mean that is your bread and butter but your margins will slowly erode away as you approach the next decade and that's what Jim Farley Mary bar they can see the iceberg that is approaching here in a few years this will become less and less profitable as the years roll on while they see the imminent Iceberg you have a mutiny on the damn ship this only ends in disaster tomorrow what are the key metrics Dan you're going to be watching know is it margins is it deliveries and what do you expecting on those Bogies yeah and Josh great to see you I look I'm from a margin perspective with these price Cuts they've sacrificed margins for volume so the big focus is going to be 177% gross margin the autog gross margin next credit that's the Line in the Sand and then does musk formally put a flag up there and say the price cuts are basically done you can wait forever elon's going to do whatever it takes to to get more vehicles on the road especially when you have major catalysts hinging on miles driven like full self-driving I'm not saying that the margins aren't important at all but when they're industry leading who gives this more miles driven more batteries being produced these are the things that are going to help Tesla cement their future pathway in Gold because that's the problem here is that once you start going down these price cuts the fear is you just continue to go down that same road in 2024 and it's very important that margins trop out this quarter you're right Elon Musk has not been shy about this he's playing a volume game and if it mean sacrificing profit margin so be it but in your opinion Dan you know the company you follow it for a long time do you think the price cuts are over we think about 95% of them are over I mean there could still be some price cuts down the road but I think in China they're going to really have to to stop these price Cuts because ultimately then it's a Ras to zero right and I think that's even though this has been the right poker move to get to this point I think going forward they have to sort of hold the line the same because if they continue to cut prices and margins continue to tr tread lower that would probably be what I'd say is probably the biggest bease in which clearly a macro that's not Roses and Rainbows speaking of something else that investors are watching that they're not necessarily hearing what they want to hear on is the model 3 refresh you talk about this in your note too as being another area of focus from the call what do you want to hear from Tesla what do you think you're going to hear from Tesla on the model 3 refresh it's really about demand in other words are you starting to see demand that up picks on the mile through refresh price points 101,000 higher that's key especially in China you know when you look at the refresh and look China's the hearts and lungs of the Tesla growth story here I think the other Focus to Josh's question is going to be cybertruck do they kind of talk about production any sort of targets when does production start start when do deliveries start and this is a what I view is a very important call for Tesla on the Cyber truck Dan when do you expect that to to come rolling off when when do you think that's going to hit how much do you think they're going to charge for that what's the price point and what really do you think demand looks like for the Cyber truck well I think demand looks super strong I mean you we call pre-orders I mean obviously some of those could churn but that's going to be upwards of a million right so I I do think there's demand for 5 600,000 even off the bat I think price points 65 70,000 I mean when you even look at some of those rivan price points I think it's going to be in that category I think production starts by Halloween early November delivery start this quarter and then you know going into next year Street wants to see called 40 50,000 potentially higher and that's important to the broader Tesla story to show that you could talk to talk Walk to Walk in terms of the production SI I know it's a what have you done for me lately type situation but um Tesla's been talking the talk walking the walk for almost 20 years now and in my experience it's not a matter of whether or not Tesla will get it done the timeline just might be a little off I guess that's what happens when you're doing stuff that no one's ever done before same for me again Dan what you think the the demand is going to be for the cybertruck look I think overall demand is for when I look at over the next few years 5 to 600,000 you know in terms of what could be so this is something on a steady state that could be six bigger units per year but it's all about production I mean look at what we've seen with r right production has been the issue not the men um and Dan I'm sure we've talked about it before I'm not a I'm not a buyer of the Cyber truck this is not for me I'm not living in Mad Max the Thunderdome I don't need to drive a car that looks like that but I do Wonder listen if the thing ends up being a runaway hit if people love driving this thing on the roads does that up the ante on other car makers to get weirder well duh and Julian remember I mean if you're driving this you know around no no one's taking your parking spot right so I think this is going to be kind like that's not something in its favor that's kind of icky about it in my opinion but you know that's just me totally no but look but but no doubt this is it's up it's up the game when you look at rivan you look at cybertruck it's up the game and that's why it's been so important for Ford with the F-150 light for GM and others to go after this category and when it comes to Tesla yet again the Skeptics will criticize and I think yet again they'll continue to outperform in conclusion while Tesla has a volume based game plan Lucid GM Ford they seem to be scaling back well to each his own but all eyes will be turned toward Tesla's Q3 reports today by all accounts there shouldn't be anything too surprising to report I fully expect them to reiterate their guidance of 1 8 million Vehicles delivered this year have a gross Automotive margin around that 177% range and maybe a few nuggets of how Tesla plans to proceed in the future either way it will be informative and I'll be tuning in quite closely that's all I have for you today be easy peace k
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