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bad news you can hear is almost infinite now so the question is can you take that i mean do you really have faith that 10 years 20 years three years you don't have to look far to get doomsday economic forecasts simply turn on the television or go to youtube to see forecasts about what will create the next financial disaster great depression or economic collapse whether higher interest rates are to blame inflation or public debt stay tuned this is why someone is always claiming the next crash is just around the corner which is why in my job as a professional investor and in my own personal investing portfolio i like to remember what peter lynch has to say about macroeconomic predictions there's always going to be something to worry about make sure to like this video and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already it's my goal to help you better understand the markets this is what happens in the stock market because everyone has the brain power to do well in the stock market questions where they don't have the stomach for it that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about i went to school grew up with a kid in the 1950s in the decade of the 1950s there was this big theory that the depression was caused by stock market crash totally wrong we had a big time depression in 1929 because less than one percent of americans owned stocks it wasn't caused by the stock market because the economy went down the federal reserve raised interest rates and we had a big time depression in fact we had several depressions like that from 1850 on this is only one of about 8 depression since 1850 but people never understood the adjective in front of depression you could call it a bad depression but it was a great depression people weren't buying in the 1950s because they were afraid of another depression and people were building fallout shelters because they were worried about nuclear warheads and nuclear war every one of these little countries has enough warheads to blow the world up 88 times wright who's built a fallout shelter you know we stopped worrying about it and there's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war this stock market was the best decade the century except for the 80s within two years oil was at 14 and now the experts who are much better paid at this point are predicting that it will drop to four dollars and that we will have a depression and people believe it once more i remember when the money supply was too fast they said we'd have a depression and now they are saying it'll go too slow and we'll have a depression remember the idc debt many countries have names they can't pronounce such as chase manhattan and chemical and manufacturing hanover when these countries weren't doing so well they were referred to as undeveloped or less developed countries now they must be referred to as emerging countries it's like i just learned the other day that the term for someone who is overweight is laterally challenged you have to say laterally challenged yeah but these are idc debt they are all going to go bankrupt and we're going to have a depression then the mideast was going on the world remember that one the middle east around the time of the arab spring people over the weekend become economists and portfolio strategists you know i'm their bull if they take their lunch on the way to work in fact i knew very well the market was going down in october of 1987.
uh dave ellison remembers that my first vacation in six years was going to take and we decided to go to ireland and we stayed there here are a few of his most well-known quotes be sure to pick something from this investing guru lynch has a straightforward investment plan which appears to be at odds with his good investments results he doesn't try to foretell the stock market's future moves using complicated methodologies instead he invests in high quality firms with well-understood business strategies at bargain rates copy this stock familiarity if you're familiar with lynch's work you're probably aware of this well-known mantra purchase only what you're familiar with because you know more about particular industry segments than an outsider this can lead to fantastic retail stocks before wall street analysts catch on peter lynch's effective strategy was taught to the people through his approachable approach in his best-selling books one up on wall street how to use what you already know to make money in the market and learn to earn it's important to have a big company each share of stock you own represents a stake in a genuine company small stores are often stronger stock buys than large shops since they have more to gain according to peter lynch's comment from one up on wall street enormous businesses make small moves whereas small businesses make big moves the present stock price reflects the market's assessment of that company's worth one of three things must happen if you want the company's worth to increase the business is growing organic sales and store expansion are the best ways for businesses to achieve this earnings sales and profit margins all increase at the company the stock is undervalued in the market or the quality of the stock isn't completely appreciated two of these factors are frequently found in great small businesses they have a great deal of potential for organic expansion because their personalization appeals to customers they can continue to grow for years analysts don't pay attention to them therefore there's a good probability they'll be undervalued because they can buy enough shares to have an influence on their bottom line institutional investors often avoid small cap businesses for years a small cap retailer stock price might quickly soar once they begin to snap up the limited number of shares it may be worthwhile to choose the david's over the goliaths of retail if you follow peter lynch's investing method this isn't to imply you shouldn't invest in large cap stores it just means you shouldn't expect them to deliver the same results for instance home depot is a dependable business its days of tremendous development are numbered with over 2 000 locations you must understand which category your stocks belong to in order to know what to expect from them and recognize when their valuation is too rich due to their untapped development potential smaller shops appear to be ideal stock investments how to stay away from a stock market crash lynch defines hot stock and hot industries as those that receive a lot of early publicity and one up on wall street they may see rapid development at first but investors will rapidly learn that they lack the profitability profits or growth potential to support the hype if i had to avoid one stock it would be the hottest stock in the hottest industry says the author furthermore competitors seeking to profit from a hot product's novelty would eventually enter the market with a knockoff version deflating the original company's stock value when a price drops it frequently drops dramatically you may soon lose all of your profits if you don't know when to sell stock market forecasting is a skill that requires a great deal of experience many investors devote a significant amount of time to forecasting the stock market's future performance they might for example try to predict the economy's future growth rate and pinpoint which industries will gain the most they might for example try to predict the economy's future growth rate and pinpoint which industries will gain the most in contrast peter lynch believes that this is a waste of time for investors instead he recognizes that the stock market's fluctuations are a complete impossibility that cannot be reliably predicted the stock market is impossible to predict they are attempting to forecast interest rates someone would be a billionaire if they could correctly estimate interest rates three times in a row this is a topic that is really timely right now in the near term the stock market's performance could be very unpredictable with the s p 500 poised to move dramatically higher or lower in the next few weeks rather than attempting to predict the movement of the index taking a long-term approach and focusing your work on discovering quality stocks could be a better use of your time reasons for investing investors motivations for purchasing a certain stock can vary dramatically one investor for example may believe that a company's balance sheet is robust and that its debt levels are low another investor might consider the competitive edge of the same company to be the most appealing feature of its investment attractiveness peter lynch believes that your motivations for owning a stock should be straightforward and concise you shouldn't buy a stock if you can't explain why you owe it to a 10 year old in two minutes or less according to lynch knowing why you bought a stock and why you still possess it can help you be more efficient with your money it may enable you to concentrate on the most critical features of a company in order to assess its risk or reward potential thanks for watching that's all for today let me know in the comments section what you think about lynch's thinking subscribe to the channel if you haven't and make sure that your post notification is turned on more
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