저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
NCC 리미티드 단기 급락 분석 영상. 결론: 지지선 확인 전까지 관망하며 하방 지지 구간에서 분할 매수 기회를 노린다. 최근 주가 흐름: 최근 1개월 약 20% 하락, 최근 수일 8% 이상 하락, 1년 기준 큰 폭 하락. 약 90원에서 70원대로 밀려 있음. 기술적 지지·저항: 약 75 부근 지지선이 깨졌고, 다음 지지는 약 60 부근. 과거 약 100 부근이 저항으로 언급됨. 시장 상황: 중소형주 전반이 약세이며 회복 시점은 불확실하다고 봄. 기업 펀더멘털: 매출 약 8000억 원, 순이익 약 280억 원으로 나쁘지 않다고 평가. PSU 성격으로 밸류에이션이 싸다는 주장. 주주 구성: 프로모터 지분 약 92.68%, 5스타 뮤추얼펀드 약 13.4%, 라케시 준준왈라 지분 약 11%언급. 프로모터 지분은 작년 약 30% 감소. 배당: 주당 배당 약 80파이즈 수준 언급. 투자 조언 및 리스크: 회사 자체는 나쁘지 않지만 하락 추세가 멈추지 않아 지금 투자는 신중해야 함. 60 부근 하단 지지 및 약 62~64 구간에서 매수 기회 가능성. 10년간 큰 하락과 큰 상승이 반복되어 장기 성과가 부진했다는 지적. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로는 회사가 회복할 수 있으나 단기 반등 시점은 불확실하며, 지지선 형성 여부가 핵심.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, today is August 23rd, and in this video we will talk about NCC Limited.
주가 급락 현황
NCC Limited has fallen more than eight percent over the last few days, and it has been falling continuously. Where will it stop, and where is the support? Before we begin, if you have not yet subscribed to the channel, please subscribe now, because there will be many more videos in the future that will be very helpful.
So let's talk about NCC Limited. It is trading around ₹70, and it has fallen eight percent. Looking at the last one month, it has dropped about twenty percent. The infrastructure services company is going through a huge decline, and for the last two weeks it has been falling continuously. Because of this decline it has not yet recovered. It has fallen from almost ₹90 to reach ₹70. Over one year, we can still see a decline of about 98 percent... wait, let me correct that: the stock was trading around ₹30, gained momentum, and reached ₹100. Then it broke back down. Strong support appeared to be visible near ₹75, and then it broke that as well. Now it has broken that too.
지지선과 장기 전망
Where is the support now? The support appears to be around ₹60. If that breaks, it would be a bad sign. Generally I think it will not fall much further, but since the market is in a debate mode, it is still difficult to say anything definitively. However, one thing is that the stock is better for the long term. Looking at the last ten years, one pattern has always been common: there is a huge fall, then a huge rally. You can see a big fall, then a big rally, then it breaks again, rises again. I have talked about this before. Support around ₹70, ₹74–75 used to be good support, and that has broken as well. So I think a strong support should be found nearby, and as long as that second support holds, you will definitely see a rise in NCC in the long term.
시장 상황과 주주 구성
Looking at the current situation, midcap and smallcap stocks are weak. The situation has deteriorated, and it is difficult to say when revival will come, but there will definitely be a rebound. Here the market cap seems to be around ₹6,000 crore, and smallcap shares are around ₹450 crore. As for holdings, 92.68 percent is held by the promoter, and 13.40 percent is held by a mutual fund. Looking here, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had an 11 percent holding in NCC Limited, which is a very good thing.
Another positive point about this company is that the promoter's holding fell by about 30 percent last year. The promoter has continuously reduced its stake. Now, the promoter's holding is around 46 percent. The company is also giving a dividend of about 40 percent, which means around 80 paise is available as dividend. About 98 percent of analysts are advising to buy, while 90 percent of people are talking about selling here.
기업 실적
Looking at NCC, there has definitely been a decline, but now it is in a phase of decline. Revenue is around ₹8,000 crore. As for profit, according to me it is not that bad. Profit is around ₹280 crore, which is good. The good thing about NCC is that the current price is not that expensive according to me. It is a PSU company. Right now the price has come down, and the valuation looks low. It has not even reached the level it had in the long term. The simple reason is that a big fall at great speed is visible here.
기관과 개인 투자자 동향
Here, if you look at it, 50 percent of the shares were subscribed, and those are people like you and me who clicked the subscribe button. Many buyers have bought, and mutual funds are also buying. As a big fall has been seen, the next quarter's holding pattern will be very interesting. Whenever there is a break, retail investors always panic. I do not consider this as bad. Retail investors sell in the middle of the fall, big funds and houses buy here, and when the market starts running again, retail people buy as well. So this is also seen here.
I am just saying the company is not bad, but that does not mean you should go and invest your money here. The company itself is not bad, but first of all, this fall... I have always said in all the videos I have made that whatever shares you see breaking in this manner are breaking continuously, and no support is visible. Supported shares are breaking. The initial support was also broken, and it broke hard. Now there is another support of ₹100, which is a breath-taking support. That should be held and should not be broken. In NCC Limited, I would say there will definitely be buying opportunities at lower levels, but supports need to be formed. It is important to stop this one-sided fall. For the next few days the stock should hold a little, and some backing support is necessary here so that a base can form.
중소형주 전망과 매수 기회
Midcaps and smallcaps are getting beaten all around. Recently there has been a big sell-off in midcaps and smallcaps. So if someone says it will recover a quarter from here, according to me it will not happen like that. We will have to wait, and it will take time. But it will definitely bounce back, because look, the fundamentals of the company are strong. There is no doubt about it.
Fundamentally, NCC is a very strong company. The valuation that comes out is also better, and considering the company's business and everything else, it looks quite good. It looks cheap to me. I have made a purchase related to this stock and am in a huge loss, so one should hold it. With the downside, it may go up to around ₹62–60, or it will try to reach close to that. Buying opportunities can arise at that level, around ₹64–65.
But I would also like to add one thing: in this company, it has always been seen that after a big fall there is a rise, and after a rise there is a fall. We have seen that NCC has not been able to deliver growth over the last ten years. If you look at the graph, you will see that after a big fall there is a big boom, and after a big boom there is a big fall. Even in ten years, only this much movement has been seen, which is not good at all. The money should double in ten years, and even banks do that, but that has not happened here. Whenever such a break occurs at a level below ₹... there will be buying opportunities. When the price goes up, there will be selling opportunities and profit-booking opportunities. So remember this here. If you find a level on the downside and see it around a certain price, there will be buying opportunities, and when it goes up again, there will definitely be selling opportunities at that level.
So I will end the video here. If you liked it, please like and share. If this is your first time on the channel, please subscribe, and you can tell me what you think about this company in the comments. Thank you.
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