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Free shares of technology companies. This is what I give you today. Free shares that I'm sure you'll remember in a year and regret not buying during this downturn. And one of them fell by 15% today. Not 15% for a bad month. 15% today, in one session, while people on TV are screaming that the world is falling apart.
That's the thing. No one tells you about a day like this. The scariest- looking chart and the best buying opportunity often look the same on the day of the event. The same red numbers, the same panicked comments, the same doomsday headlines . The only way to tell them apart is to actually do the work.
And almost no one does this work. They simply react to the color on the screen. I've been doing this for over 40 years. I've made more money acting aggressively at times like these, when good companies are being thrown out with the bad ones, than at any other time in my career. But I want to be honest with you, because I've also lost money by jumping in too early, to the real bottom, simply because I lost my head and skipped my homework.
Both statements are true. Fear can be your best friend or it can destroy you. And the difference between these comes down to a few simple questions you ask yourself before you touch the keyboard. So today I will ask you these questions. This is the real filter that I use, the same one that I've relied on during five or six real crises in my life, not just during this little fluctuation that we're having right now.
And then I'll name you three companies I like in this downturn and one stock that everyone is begging me to buy, but I would n't even touch with your money. Before I get to that, I need 60 seconds of your time, and I promise, it's worth it. What I'm about to show you cost me decades and many expensive mistakes.
Most of this you will never find in books or finance degrees, because the people who really know it are usually too busy making a living to sit down and write it out for strangers on the internet. I'm giving it to you today for free on one condition. Subscribe now before you look any further, not later.
Not because I need a number for my ego, but because when the next real downturn comes—and it will come—the algorithm will decide who even watches this channel. And I don't want you to miss a video that actually matters because you forgot to subscribe today. This one decision was probably more valuable to some of my viewers than a semester of studying finance .
It doesn't cost you anything. Do it now, click, and then come back. So, let's talk about why a great company can report the best quarter in its history and still have its stock plummet the next morning. Because if you don't understand this one thing, you'll be panic selling good assets your whole life without even realizing it.
I have seen smart, disciplined, and very sensible people do this over and over again for four decades. The company exceeds all analysts' expectations, and the shares still fall by 8, 10, 15% the next day. This seems wrong. It seems almost unfair, as if the market punishes success. But this is not accidental and not personal.
And once you actually understand why it happens, you stop fearing it and start waiting for it, because that's usually when good assets come up for sale. The first reason is simple, but almost no one understands it. The market doesn't care if the news is good. He only cares about whether the news is better than what everyone has already quietly priced in .
If a stock has been rising rapidly for six months, expectations rise along with the stock price, usually faster than the business can keep up. So when a company announces, "We grew 20% this quarter." In any normal world, this is a success. This is an indicator that most businesses would give anything for.
But if the crowd has convinced itself, without even realizing it, that the figure will be closer to 25, then 20% suddenly seems like a disappointment. While this is still a truly great result, business hasn't gotten any worse . In fact, nothing has changed inside the company. The dream was just a moment ahead of reality, and now reality needs to catch its breath.
This single dynamic explains a huge portion of the nasty reactions you see every reporting season. And understanding this will save you from panic selling a perfectly healthy company. The second reason is bigger than any individual company. And honestly , it doesn't apply to this company at all. Large institutions, pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds—they move huge amounts of money in blocks and think in terms of sectors rather than individual businesses: too much tech, not enough energy, too much growth, not enough value.
When one of these big players decides it's time to cut back on the tech sector , they don't necessarily sell their worst assets first. They sell their best assets because good stocks are liquid. And liquidity means you can quickly sell a huge package without the price collapsing to your detriment. So your favorite company, with a clean balance sheet, growing profits, and a great management team, is being sold simply because some huge capital needed to move billions of dollars into a completely different market sector.
Nothing broke inside the company itself. It's just that someone else rearranged the furniture in the room and your shares accidentally ended up in the wrong place. And the third reason is the one that people most often ignore. And, to be honest, it was she who repeatedly burned me at the beginning of my career.
When something big comes along—a big IPO, a hot new sector, a flashy story that grabs all the attention—the money for it has to come from somewhere. And large foundations don't raise these funds by selling garbage. They collect them by selling their best, most liquid assets , because they are the easiest to quickly turn into cash.
So, the stocks you own may be falling not because there is something wrong with them, but because funding is needed somewhere else for something new and attractive. I learned this bitter lesson a decade ago. Watching a position I was proud of fall just because the money flowed into something more spectacular, I learned not to assume that a falling price always means trouble in the business.
All three of these reasons have one thing in common . They are about sentiment and capital movements, not whether the business itself is actually working. And this is where the opportunity lies. Because most investors don't see the difference between a stock falling and a company collapsing. On the first day, they look the same.
The news headlines are the same. The red arrows are the same, but under one is a gift, and under the other is a warning sign that is better not to ignore. So, here is the filter. Three questions . It takes about 5 minutes per share. And this works regardless of whether it's a 9% pullback in the chip sector or a full-blown collapse like in 2008 or 2020.
I have refined this approach throughout my career and still use a version of it whenever the market throws a tantrum. The first question, and it is the most important, the one that decides almost everything else. Has the business itself become worse? Forget about the stock chart for a second. Cover it with your hand if you need to, pretend you don't even see the price.
Just look at the metrics behind it. Those that truly describe the state of affairs in the company, not what people think about it. Have revenues increased compared to what management expected a few months ago? Did they raise their future forecasts, leave them unchanged, or quietly lower them? Was there some unpleasant surprise hidden in the fine print ?
Warnings about slowing demand, rising costs, the departure of a major customer—if profits are growing, forecasts are stable or higher, and things are going well, then business is normal. Point. And the fall in share prices is a problem of sentiment, not of the company. This is a real gift, plain and simple.
But if you dig deeper and find that revenues are falling and management is quietly reneging on its own promises from last quarter, this isn't just a slump. This is a market that sensed the smoke before you saw the fire yourself. Read the transcript of the reporting conference if you can bear it, or at least a quality summary of it.
The questions that professional analysts ask the CEO, and more importantly, the answers to them, speak volumes more than any headline, because that's where the people with real money look for weaknesses. The second question: is it just this stock that is falling or the entire sector together? It takes 10 seconds and gives a lot of information.
Open the charts of two or three competitors in the same industry. If your semiconductor company stock fell 9%. Check other major chip manufacturers. If they all fall together, this is not a story about your specific company. This entire sector has fallen under a wave of capital outflow to other areas.
This is even somewhat reassuring, because it means that nothing specific is broken. But if your stock is falling rapidly, and all competitors around it are calm, in the "green" zone, or have barely changed—this is not capital rotation. It's a spotlight, and it's usually aimed at a real problem. Something specific has gone wrong with this company, and you should find out what it is before you buy even a single share.
The third question is what distinguishes professionals from everyone else who shouts on social media. What does the “smart money” actually do? They don't say it, they do it. I want to be honest with you , because it took me years to fully believe this. Ignore the loud voices on the internet. Ignore most of what you hear on financial television.
When someone talks about a deal on air, in almost all cases they have already made it. And now they are simply promoting their own interests, hoping that enough people will follow them to push the price in their direction. Watch what people actually do with their money, not what they say into the microphone.
Do company executives, those who see the real numbers every day before anyone else, buy stocks with their own money? Now insiders sell shares for a hundred different reasons that have nothing to do with the state of the company: paying taxes, buying a house, diversifying overly concentrated assets, paying for children's education, or anything else.
But insiders buy stocks for only one reason on this entire planet. They believe that the price will rise, and are willing to back up their belief with their own money. When you see insiders start buying up stocks en masse during a terrible market drop, it tells you more than any headline. And besides, look at where institutional investors' money is actually flowing, not at what price target some analyst predicts.
I'm skeptical of price targets from analysts because these forecasts often come from banks that have business relationships with the companies they analyze, and to pretend that it doesn't influence their opinion— at least a little—is naive. True institutional buying is a quiet, invisible process that only becomes known weeks after it occurs.
In my experience, it is this signal that has real meaning. Now let's apply the filter to the market we are currently observing, as the chip and semiconductor sector has been hit hard over the past few weeks. And the reasons for this are exactly as you would expect. There is real new competition emerging from abroad, which is cheaper and sometimes surprisingly high-quality.
This combination has caused many people to panic and exit otherwise great businesses. And it is in this fear that I seek benefit, not an exit from the market. The first company I would draw your attention to is a long-established chip manufacturer that almost everyone wrote off as a deadweight loss a year or two ago .
And I was laughed at for it. And I was laughed at for it. There was enough mockery in the comments and everywhere else . Rightly. It's part of the job when you go against the crowd. Since then, the share price has increased several times from that low, and the latest earnings report was the best in many years for this company.
Income growth has accelerated significantly, instead of barely moving at a few percent as it was before. For a time, earnings per share far exceeded anyone on Wall Street's forecasts. Their newer, higher-growth divisions, related to data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure, grew by almost 60%.
And their manufacturing division, the part of the business that produces chips for other companies, grew by an additional 30%. This business was truly ruined a few years ago, losing market share, lagging behind in technology, but it has clearly changed fundamentally, and not just for looks. When such a company rolls back just because the entire sector got excited, while its own real performance continues to improve quarter after quarter.
This is exactly the gift I was talking about earlier. I would rather buy a developing success story at a discount than a perfect story at full price. The second name is the one that fell by about 15% today. And I promise you: if you actually read the numbers under the headline, and not just look at the red arrow, the story will look very different than the price suggests.
Sales exceeded expectations by a good margin. Profit— with even more. One of the purest successes you'll see this reporting season, but the stock still crashed because the crowd quietly priced in something close to perfection ahead of this report. And management's forecast, while quite reliable , wasn't aggressive enough to satisfy a market that had become a little too greedy about what the future was supposed to look like.
Run this through the filter we just created. Has the business gone bankrupt? No. Both revenue and profit exceeded expectations. Does this apply only to this stock or the entire sector? Mostly just this one. The reaction is exaggerated compared to its counterparts, indicating emotional excess rather than fundamental causes.
Expectations simply outpaced reality by a moment. Same story as reason number one mentioned earlier in the video. This 15% drop, in my honest opinion, is exactly the kind of overreaction that will seem like a gift in a few months. Not an alarm signal. Which one should you run away from today? The third name is slightly different from the first two.
A company that benefits from actually physically building the infrastructure on which all this artificial intelligence runs. The unglamorous “picks and shovels” of the whole boom, rather than the flashy consumer side, it was dragged down along with the more exciting names simply by the sector rotation.
Although its own backlog , the actual contracts and commitments it has, and its own forecasts continue to grow steadily quarter after quarter without any real interruption. Competitors in the same market sector are currently experiencing very similar setbacks, which directly indicates overall weakness in this niche.
Capital comes from the whole topic , not from some specific problem of the company hidden inside. To me, this is a textbook definition of a stock falling for reasons that have nothing to do with the business itself. And it is in such situations that patient money, as a rule, is rewarded after a year or two.
Now about the stock that everyone keeps asking me to talk about in the comments: the one that is still incredibly popular, that private investors love so much, and that I still wouldn't touch even at a lower price than a few months ago, when I ran it through the same filter. The picture turned out to be not clean at all .
And to me, that's more important than how many people love this story. Growth has been slowing for several quarters in a row, rather than accelerating like the companies I just reviewed. The company's forecast was secretly lowered twice over the past year , which is not a very good signal from the management team.
And when I checked the situation in the sector, its direct competitors held up quite well during the same period, which clearly shows: it is not sector rotation that is dragging it down. This is something specific that happens inside this particular company. Additionally, I did not see any significant insider buying during this drawdown.
There is no group of executives who would invest their own funds in the way I would like to see, and that is a worrying signal. I follow social media popularity very closely, but it is not a fundamental indicator and never will be . A stock can be everyone's favorite, talked about on every financial account you're subscribed to, and still remain the one you should avoid at this particular moment.
I would always rather be first and right about something boring than late and wrong about something exciting. So here's my challenge to you, because watching a video like this and then not taking any action is how most people waste really useful information. And I see this happening all the time . Before the market opens tomorrow morning, pick just one stock that you already own that has had a rough few weeks that is keeping you up at night a little, and run it through these three questions on your own, writing it down if you have to—on paper.
Don't just glance at the graph, feeling scared, and close the app. Check to see if the business has really deteriorated beneath the surface. Check whether the entire sector falls with it, or whether it remains alone at the bottom while its competitors " turn green." Also, check to see if the people who actually run the company are quietly buying up shares or are quietly heading for the exit, telling you that everything is fine.
It will take you maybe 15 minutes of real work, and I promise it will change the way you feel the next time your entire portfolio turns red on the screen. This is the main purpose of everything I have just explained to you. Get rid of panic on days like today. Because panic is expensive. It forces you to sell at the minimum and buy at the maximum.
Whereas the clear thinking we just practiced together costs you nothing but a pinch of patience. If any of this helped you, even a little, subscribe now so you don't miss the next video before the next real fall. And it always happens in the end . That's just how markets work. Leave a comment telling me which of these three names you're following the most, and be honest with me and yourself.
Are you really buying during this dip, or are you still sitting on the sidelines waiting for it to be safe? I'll tell you one secret. In four decades of working in this field, it's never truly safe at a time like this. That's usually the whole point, and that's usually why it works.
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