저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
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8월 말 전 매수 3종(브로드컴·마이크론·엔비디아)과 매도 3종(사이에나·네비우스·델타항공)을 제시. 매수 종목은 AI 수요 기반 성장과 합리적 밸류에이션을 근거로 들며, 매도 종목은 주가가 펀더멘털을 앞섰거나 업황 사이클 리스크가 크다고 판단. 목표가는 명시하지 않고 '적정가 대비 가격' 중심으로 설명. 과거 실적·주가 상승은 근거로 언급되나 예측 자체는 3종목별 방향 발언.
다듬은 글
If you have the wrong stocks at the beginning of September, it will cost you real money, and I mean real money, not theoretical paper losses that you wave your hand at. Right now, I have three stocks that Wall Street is feverishly recommending buying, and three that the smartest business analysts are quietly advising clients to get rid of by the end of the month.
One of these companies is about to announce a metric that could single-handedly move the entire market. The other one has grown a lot this year, and everyone loves her , which is why I'm nervous about her. I've spent almost 50 years doing one thing: figuring out where money is going to flow before it happens, and I can tell you that for free.
Stock advice without a target price is simply a gamble with added complications. So today I'm going to tell you about all six companies, what they actually do , and more importantly, how much you should actually be willing to pay for them. No water, no fuss, just numbers and the arguments behind them.
Let's begin. Before I go any further, I want to say something directly to you. What I'm about to tell you is something I've been studying for decades. And I learned most of this the most expensive way. First losing money. I give this to you for nothing but one thing. If this helps you, click " subscribe" right now.
Before you forget, before you get distracted by the next video, I'm not asking you to pay me a dime. I'm asking for 30 seconds of your time in exchange for what I've lost my career for. Fair exchange. And now let's roll up our sleeves. Let's start with the first stock on the buy list, and it's one that many still don't value properly.
Broadcom. Everyone wants to talk about the company that makes chips. Fewer people want to talk about a company that makes specialized chips for the biggest AI players on the planet. The ones that no one notices because they are not bright. They just quietly print money in the background. Broadcom's data center and AI chip business is growing at a pace that most companies would envy.
And management predicts that this growth will accelerate in the next quarter. This is not a small thing. When a company tells you that growth is accelerating, not slowing, based on already big numbers, you pay attention. And here's the interesting part. The stock actually fell after the latest earnings report.
Why? Because investors are greedy. And when you already have insane performance, anything less than perfection is punished. This is not a reason to run away. Sometimes this is the moment to act decisively. So let's talk about price, because that's the whole point of the game. It is now a company worth almost $2 trillion.
When I look at the value of the enterprise, I see significant debt on the balance sheet, but I also see a business generating tens of billions in free cash flow every year—more than enough to comfortably service the debt . The return on capital was solid, not as impressive as in the pure software business, but quite decent and growing.
What I really like is the profitability dynamics. 10 years ago, this company was making a significant profit on every dollar of revenue. Today, this indicator has increased significantly, which indicates that the business is becoming more efficient, not the other way around, even despite scaling. Revenue growth has been rapid over the past few years , and analysts expect it to continue for many more years, with profits potentially tripling over the next few years.
The only thing that makes me hesitate —and I'll be honest with you —is the dilution of shares. The number of shares outstanding has increased, meaning current owners are getting a slightly smaller share of a larger pie. I do n't like it. But when I run this through a 10-year model, using conservative revenue growth in the high- teens, healthy free cash flow margins of around 40%, and a reasonable multiple given the quality of the business.
I'm coming up with a fair price, well below the current low, but with real upside potential if AI development continues to accelerate as management promises. This is not a super profitable offer, but it is a quality business that can be patiently owned. And quality always wins over time. Second purchase.
And it may surprise some of you—it's Micron . This is a memory chip company, and memory has historically been one of the most brutal, cyclical, boom- and- bust businesses in the entire technology industry, but something has changed. Building AI requires not only processors, but also vast amounts of high-speed memory to run them, and Micron is at the heart of this shift.
The profit growth that this company has recently shown is not a mistake. Profits have risen sharply compared to last year, and because of this, stocks have risen sharply . Now I want to be careful because when something goes up in price so quickly, your instinct should be suspicion, not excitement. This is the number one rule in this business.
Never fall in love with a schedule. So I delved into the real numbers. This is still a company trading at a very reasonable multiple relative to analysts' earnings expectations for this year, especially compared to the growth rate. The management itself has publicly stated that we are still in the early stages of demand for their products thanks to AI, not the later stages.
And that's important because memory pricing cycles can change in an instant once everyone decides the good times will last forever. This is the risk you are taking with this company. Now it is a cyclical business, dressed in the costume of AI growth. When I model this, I use a wider range of outcomes than for more stable businesses because cyclical companies deserve a wider range.
In the worst case scenario, if prices normalize faster than expected, stocks could lose much of their gains. In the best-case scenario, if demand for AI memory continues to outpace supply, as it has so far, there is real room for growth even after such a jump. The average scenario still indicates upside potential from the current price.
My advice on this ? If you buy, take a smaller stake than for more stable companies because you are being paid for real cyclical risk, and never bet everything on a cycle, no matter how good the story seems right now. Third purchase, and I'm sure you guessed it—Nvidia. I know, I know, everyone and their brother has their own opinion about Nvidia, but let's put aside the noise and just look at the business.
This company is still showing 80% year- over- year revenue growth, with a huge base, where data center revenue is leading the way. Such growth on this scale is almost unheard of in the history of public markets. The company is also actively expanding beyond just chips, delving into robotics and what they call physical AI, as well as announcing partnerships that could unlock hundreds of billions of dollars in future infrastructure spending.
The arguments "for " speak for themselves. AI infrastructure spending is a multi-year platform shift , and this is a company that sells shovels regardless of who wins the real AI race. Here's the balance sheet, and it's as clean as it gets for a company of this size. There is more cash than debt, which is rare at this scale, and the return on invested capital is simply outstanding.
A true signal of quality management running a quality business. The only reasonable objection, and it is fair, is the assessment of value. These stocks trade at a significant premium to both earnings and free cash flow. And free cash flow is currently lagging behind profits as the company invests funds back into the business to keep up with demand.
So the real question is not whether this company is great. Everyone agrees that this is a great company. The real question is whether you are overpaying for this greatness today. When I model this for 10 years with growth rates significantly lower than Wall Street analysts' forecasts, because I like to be conservative and assume that some of that growth won't come true, I still get a fair value with a reasonable margin above the current price under the average assumptions.
This shows that the market does not price perfection forever. He values continued successful execution, and this company has earned more credit for its trust than almost any other business I have studied in my career. That doesn't mean she can't have a tough quarter. This means that long-term calculations still work, even if you're a little skeptical about the hype.
Now let's move on to the list for sale, and the first one we have is Ciena. This is an optical networking company. They manufacture equipment that transfers huge amounts of data between data centers, and this year they have become one of the main beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom. Revenue increased dramatically.
Profits have multiplied several times compared to last year. And management raised its forecasts. At first glance, this looks like a great buy. So why is it listed for sale? Because the price has so far outpaced fundamentals that even very optimistic assumptions about the future do not provide confidence in the current valuation.
The stock is trading at a price-to-free cash flow multiple in the 70s, which is an extraordinary figure for a company with mid-single-digit profit margins and return on equity . Compare that to a business like Nvidia, which also trades at a premium but backs it up with huge margins and a huge return on capital.
Ciena doesn't have the same margin of safety built into the business itself. Analysts predict that profits will roughly triple over the next few years and revenue will roughly double , implying significant profit margin growth. And that's too much for a forecast for a hardware company in a historically competitive, low- margin industry.
When I model this conservatively, using mid- single-digit to low-double- digit revenue growth and modest margin improvement, the fair value turns out to be significantly lower than the current price, even under generous assumptions . When I adjust the assumptions to be more aggressive, it still doesn't close the gap completely.
This is a classic trap: a really good business that became a really bad investment because the price outpaced the fundamentals. Great company, but the price is wrong. That's the whole story. The second sale, and it will be controversial, as it is one of the most popular titles on the market right now—Nebius.
This company essentially rents out computing power for AI. Think of it as a landlord for AI infrastructure, and the growth rates are almost unbelievable. Revenue has grown by several hundred percent year-over-year, and the company is moving from losses to real profitability. They signed large, multi-year contracts with large cloud customers.
On paper, it looks like a rocket launch, and the stock has more than doubled this year because of it. But here's my problem. When a business generates negative free cash flow because it spends huge amounts on infrastructure development, outpacing demand, it cannot be valued in the usual way. You have to ask yourself what you are actually paying for.
The stock is currently trading at around 60 times this year's expected earnings. And if you look at it through the price-to- sales ratio, since free cash flow and net income are still at an early stage, the multiplier is inflated even compared to other AI infrastructure companies that already have real profitability.
Even assuming aggressive growth, with revenue doubling over the next few years, a proper discounted cash flow model still yields a valuation that is significantly lower than the current share price. This doesn't mean the business isn't real. Over time, it could really become a big company. But a great business and a great stock at a specific price are two completely different matters.
And now the price is so far ahead of the real funds generated by the business that I would rather watch it from the sidelines than chase it now. The third and final sale, and this is a completely different matter— Delta Airlines. This may surprise you because the business is actually doing well. Record revenue last quarter, premium ticket sales are growing well, and management confirms strong full-year profit forecast, despite some of the highest fuel costs in industry history.
So why sell a company that is doing so well? Well, because airlines have been breaking investors' hearts for the better part of a century, and I don't say that for nothing . Some of the smartest investors alive today got burned by betting on airlines at the very moment when things looked their best .
Profitability in this industry is extremely low. The debt load is significant due to fleet financing, and one bad year, whether due to a spike in fuel prices or a recession that undermines business and leisure travel, can wipe out years of accumulated profits in a matter of months. Analyzing the numbers, we see that these stocks are trading at a multiple to next year's expected earnings, which assumes that the current favorable conditions will continue indefinitely.
The level of debt remains high compared to the free cash flow generated by the business. And while the return on capital has improved , it's still far from the quality criteria I look for before agreeing to overpay. When I make conservative assumptions—moderate revenue growth in the low single digits and margins more in line with the historical industry average rather than this year's exceptionally strong results—the fair value turns out to be slightly below the current market price of the stock.
This doesn't mean that Delta is a bad company. They are definitely one of the best airlines on the market. This means that the price already takes into account a lot of good news. And airlines, by their very nature, are a business where good news doesn't stay good forever. When the cycle changes, and it always does eventually , that's when you'll want to be on the sidelines, not crowding the exit with everyone else.
So, let 's summarize. Three companies I would be happy to own at the right share size and price, and three companies where I think the story looks better than the math at this point. Here's the real lesson behind all of this, and that's the main thing I want you to walk away with today . It's not about guessing the success story.
Anyone can tell you a good story about any of these six companies. The point is to know how much you are willing to pay for that story and have the discipline to walk away when the price and fundamentals stop aligning. This discipline is the difference between an investor and a gambler. . Choose one stock, just one, that you already own or plan to buy, and crunch the numbers yourself like we just did.
Realistic revenue growth assumptions, realistic margin metrics, a fair multiple, not expectations. Don't blindly trust what some analyst says on TV, and don't trust me either. Do the work yourself. If you found this helpful, please subscribe, as I will continue to do this every month, and leave a comment telling me which of these six companies you want me to cover first when their earnings reports come out. See you in the next issue.
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