저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2019년 실적 호조와 2020년 1월 시점 금리·시장 전망을 다룬 JPMorgan 공식 뉴스 영상이다. 실적: 2019년 4분기 순이익은 전년 동기 대비 21% 증가했고, 연간 순이익은 364억 달러(주당 10.72달러)로 사상 최대다. 사업 확장: 70여 개 신규 지점을 16개 신규 시장에 열었고, 중국에서 다수 지분 증권사 영업 승인을 받은 미국 최초 은행이 되었으며 기술 투자를 계속한다. 경영진 발언: CFO Piepszak은 소비자 사업과 CIB의 시장 확장 기회를 강조했고, 상업은행은 현재 10개국에서 운영 중이다. Dimon 회장은 지정학적 긴장 속에서도 글로벌 성장이 낮은 수준에서 안정화됐고 일부 무역 이슈 해결이 연말 거래를 지지했다고 밝혔다. 미국 금리 전망: 2019년 미국 금리(10년물)는 무역 긴장과 연준 인하로 급락했다. 전략가 Lebovitz는 해외 저금리와 채권 수요 때문에 10년물 금리가 지속적으로 2% 이상으로 오르기는 어렵다고 봤고, 금리 상승 시 매수세가 유입되어 다시 낮아질 것으로 예상했다. 장단기 금리 역전이 주기 말 이전에 다시 나타날 수 있다는 가능성도 언급했다. 주식 전망: 최근 상승의 대부분은 밸류에이션 확대(멀티플 확장)에 따른 것이며, 지정학 문제 진전에 기반한다. 2020년 경제 성장은 2019년보다 나을 것으로 보이고 이익 성장률은 약 10% 수준으로 예상된다. 다만 시장이 다소 앞서가고 있다는 우려도 제기됐다. 커뮤니티 투자: 라틴아메리카(멕시코, 콜롬비아, 아르헨티나, 브라질, 칠레, 페루)에서 일자리 창출 프로그램을 운영한다. 칠레 산티아고 태양광 교육 프로그램은 400명을 교육해 85%가 정규직으로 채용됐고, 브라질에서는 흑인 인재를 위한 대학 연계 과정을 운영한다. 리스크: 무역 갈등 미해결, 해외 저금리에 따른 금리 상승 제약, 지정학적 긴장, 주식 밸류에이션 부담이 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
This week: JPMorgan Chase is reporting record financial performance for 2019. We remain well positioned as we continue to build on our scale and benefit from the diversification of our business models. A look at the earnings numbers and contributing factors. U.S. yields fell sharply in 2019. Could we expect a rebound soon?
And how J.P. Morgan is strengthening communities in Latin America by investing in people. Connecting people who have been left behind with economic opportunity is not only the right thing to do, its a business imperative because when our communities thrive, so does the economy. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase News.
Im Kim Morton reporting from New York. Earnings numbers are in. Not only did JPMorgan Chase produce a net income for the fourth quarter of 2019 thats up 21 percent from the same time last year the firm reported a record net income of $36.4 billion for the full year, or $10.72 per share. In 2019, the firm added more than 70 new branches in 16 new markets, became the first U.S.
bank to be approved for a majority-owned securities business in China, and continues to invest in technology. Take a listen to what Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Piepszak said in a press call: If you look in our consumer businesses, market expansion is an extraordinary opportunity for us. And these are really powerful markets Boston, DC, Philly In CIB, we just talked about China but we have opportunity to continue to hire bankers, really talented bankers, by sector and by geography in places where were under penetrated.
In the Commercial Bank we have both the expansion here in the U.S. as well as the international expansion there. Were now in 10 countries. And then in AWM, we continue to have opportunities there as well, whether it be in wealth management or in China. Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon wrote that despite a high level of complex geopolitical issues, global growth stabilized, albeit at a lower level, and resolution of some trade issues helped support client and market activity towards the end of the year.
You can see the full presentation, including the disclaimer, and listen to the Financial Results Conference Call, on jpmorganchase.com. U.S. yields fell sharply in 2019 as trade tensions weighed on the global economy and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates. But could they be set for a rebound in early 2020?
Lets send it over to Christina Dello Buono. An end to Federal Reserve easing has left us with a relatively flat yield curve right now. Global Market Strategist David Lebovitz with J.P. Morgan Asset Management is joining me. David, even with trade tensions likely to continue, do you expect yields to bounce back this year?
So I think its going to be tough for yields to move sustainably higher than about 2 percent on the 10-year and the reason for that is although weve made progress on trade, a lot of things remain unresolved. You look at interest rates in the rest of the world and they tend to be lower than in the U.S.
and in some cases negative. And so what this has done is lead to an investment community that remains a bit cautious, but is very hungry for yields. So even if things get better and rates do go up, I anticipate that buyers would come in, pushing them back down. Is it possible the yield curve could see periods where long-term interest rates are actually below short-term rates and what could that mean?
We could absolutely see the curve invert again much like it did at the end of the summer last year. I think it would mean primarily that monetary policy is too tight given the state of affairs and whether that view is driven by an escalation in geopolitical tensions, whether its due by a material degradation of economic growth, I mean, that can be debated.
But I do think that there is the potential for the curve to invert again sometime before the end of the cycle. So lets talk markets, too. Whats driving them higher and can it last? Equities have been on a tear and the majority of the move that weve seen has been due to multiple expansions. So, valuations going up, and thats really been based on the idea that were making progress on a lot of these geopolitical issues.
Economic growth looks set to be better in 2020 than it was in 2019, earnings growth is going to be somewhere to the tune of 10 percent. I do wonder if the market is getting a little bit ahead of itself here but theres a lot of optimism that has surrounded markets and helped push them higher. Great. Thanks so much for joining me today.
Thanks for having me. Inequality, poverty and lack of education can prohibit talented individuals from entering the workforce. J.P. Morgan is working toward solutions supporting job creation and emerging talent in Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru. In Santiago de Chile, J.P. Morgan partnered with Fundación Chile and solar energy companies to create a program to help train 400 people.
Eighty-five percent were permanently hired. In Brazil, theres an opportunity gap for many black individuals. J.P. Morgan teamed up with Zumbi dos Palmares University and the Banking Federation to prepare them to join the workforce. I pursued J.P. Morgan like crazy. And one day at the university I saw, for the first time, a course oriented to black population.
And that for me was sensational because I knew I was going to be at a place that, even with challenges, I would be with people who go through the same life as I do. That wraps up this weeks JPMorgan Chase News. Im Kim Morton. Well see you next week!
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