저자: 미상 · 외국인
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애플·테슬라·엔비디아 차트 분석. 애플은 AI 전환 후 6주 상승으로 단기 눌림 가능성이 커 180~215대 구간 근처 추세선 눌림 후 반등 확인 시 조건부 매수 제시. 테슬라는 3년 주봉 하락추세로 장기 부정적, 단기 페넌트 돌파 전까지 관망. 엔비디아는 포물선 상승으로 과열 위험, 보유는 가능하나 신규 매수는 자제하고 일간 상승추세선 이탈 시 매도 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
All right, Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia were the most actively traded stocks on the market today, so I thought I'd go through the charts of these three stocks on different time frames and give you a sense of my opinion on whether they are buy, sell, or hold. I want to make sure you understand it's my opinion. I'm not a licensed investment adviser, but I've been trading the stock market for over 30 years and have some pretty good insight into where stocks will go.
Let's start with Apple. What you see on screen is a three-year weekly chart. The first thing I want you to notice is the recent performance. Apple made it public that they were moving into the AI space, which broke the downward trend line, and that has led to six weeks of upside action. At this point the stock looks strong. I like it longer term, but anytime a stock makes those kinds of gains in the short term, it's likely to pull back. It's simple math: when someone bought at 180 and it's now at 215, there's motivation to take profits. So I think a little pullback is inevitable.
The question is when it will pull back. To answer that, I go to a shorter time frame, the six-month daily chart. I'm going to draw a line across these bottoms. This is your trend line. You can see we're quite far above it right now, and anytime price runs away from the trend line, it's likely to come back to it. So for Apple to become a buy, I'd watch for it to come back to this trend line and bounce off it. If it can do that, there's good potential for the upward trend to resume. I'm putting a conditional buy on Apple. I don't want to buy it here. I like the longer-term outlook, but it's likely to pull back in the short term, and you're better off buying on the pullback and then the break of the pullback.
Let's look at Tesla next. Stick around to the end, because I'm going to show you why the market has a fair bit of deception in it. There's a deceptive picture being created by the market, and two of these three stocks are the culprits. I'll show you why shortly. First, Tesla's three-year weekly chart. The stock is in a downward trend, meaning sellers control the market. There's general pessimism about this stock. Over the last three years we've had falling tops on the chart. There were periods with some shorter-term rising bottoms, and we're starting to build a small rising bottom here, but we're still underneath the downward trend line. Based on that, the long-term picture is negative for Tesla. I would not want to be a buyer if you're a long-term holder.
That doesn't mean you can't be a day trader or swing trader. If I go to the 30-minute chart, I can see optimism building. This is a pattern called a pennant, and the moves up and down are getting tighter, which means volatility is compressing. If it breaks out of this pennant to the upside, a short-term trader looking to hold for a few days or a couple of weeks could profit from that upside move. At this point, though, I would not touch the stock. As a swing trader, I'd like to see it break out of the pattern. If it does, great. If not, it's best to leave it alone.
Finally, Nvidia, really the top-performing stock among the large caps, with awesome gains. The issue is that although it's very strong, it's making what we call a parabolic upward trend line. When you have a parabolic upward trend, investors are very emotional. The fear of missing out is causing a lot of people to buy, and that's a dangerous situation, because when trends go parabolic, they set up for a sharp downward move eventually when the bubble bursts. There's no sign of weakness yet, so I think the stock is a hold. I'd hold it if you're in it, but I would not buy it here. It's way too risky. If you're a day trader or swing trader holding for a few hours or days on an options trade, that's a totally different story. I'm looking at this as a longer-term investor, and it's too risky here because it has made such considerable gains.
So when do you sell? Anytime a trend goes parabolic, I shorten the time frame I analyze and look for a break of trend. The chart on screen is a weekly chart, and it's gone parabolic, so I shorten to the daily time frame to look for a break of the trend. I click six-month daily, and there's the upward trend line I drew across the bottoms. There are two ways to do this. If you want to be really aggressive, sell if this trend line is broken. A move down through it would be an aggressive sell signal. The other way is to wait for a falling top. Typically, an upward trend breaks, builds a falling top, and then breaks down from that falling top through the upward trend line. So step one is the trend line breaking, step two is building a falling top, and step three is the breakdown from the falling top through the trend line. If you own this stock and are looking for a place to exit, that's my strategy. I don't see a reason to exit yet, but it's a risky stock, so I would not be a buyer here, only on weakness. The long-term momentum is still up. If there's a major pullback like we had back here, when the stock pulled back for seven or eight weeks, that presented a buying opportunity. I actually did a video on that back then, selling on the bursting bubble and buying back on the break up from a rising bottom. Breaking the downward trend line was the inverse of what I'm telling you to look for now. Here you had a pullback, a build of a rising bottom, and then a break from that rising bottom, which led to this nice wave up. I think the next trade on Nvidia is to the downside, and perhaps buying on a bit of a bargain hunt after that.
I hope you've enjoyed this video. I'm happy to do more if we get more subscribers and likes. Let me know if there are topics you'd like covered, and I'd love to hear your thoughts: buy, sell, or hold on these three stocks. Let me know what you think, and I'll look at doing more of these. Thanks for watching, and trade well.
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