저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 전기차 성장을 넘어 전력 저장·소프트웨어 기반 에너지 사업으로 확장될 것이며, 이로 인해 시장가치가 크게 늘 수 있다는 장기 낙관 주장. 테슬라 2분기 실적: 실적 발표에서 흑자를 기록했고, 에너지 사업도 수익성을 보였다고 언급. 매춘 크레딧(규제 크레딧) 판매 덕분이라는 베어(약세) 측 비판에 대해 그는 무시할 만한 논리라고 반박. 과거 흐름: 2020년 초부터 약세 논리와 강세 논리의 대립이 있었고, 그는 장기 전기화 트렌드를 근거로 강세 입장을 유지해 큰 수익을 냈다고 설명. 4년간 보유해 수익을 봤다고 함. 에너지 사업 전망: 테슬라가 배터리팩과 소프트웨어로 개인이 분산형 전력 사업자가 되도록 돕게 되며, 에너지 규제 완화가 다음 성장 동력이 될 것이라고 봄. 이 시장 가치는 수조 달러 규모라고 주장. 시장가치 변화: 3월 말 이후 테슬라 시가총액이 약 2,000억 달러 증가했다는 점을 언급하며, 그중 얼마가 반영됐는지와 에너지 부문 추가 상승 여지를 질문. 리스크와 반론: 기존 전력 유틸리티 기업이 장기적으로 불리해질 수 있다고 봄. 다만 20년 단위의 장기 전망이며 단기 주가 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음. 종목별 방향: 테슬라 장기 강세(매수 관점), 기존 유틸리티 장기 약세 가능성. 출연자 전망은 장기 견해 위주.
다듬은 글
let me just ask you about Tesla because they had their earnings last night they beat you know the Bears would say they beat because they sold these tax credits and how long are these Tethys credits going to be you know a sustainable business model what do you say you bought you you bought into tests or buttons in the debt a long time ago I think this is a really important example of a much bigger trend that's happening in the stock market which is that retail investors now have access to so much information that it's almost on parity with people that work in traditional investment organizations and what we've seen is that's happened is that the quality of that analysis and the ability to see around the corner is as good and in many cases better than traditional investment firms and the way they view the problem so from day one you have had this massive tension between the Bulls and the Bears on this company and the Bulls basically saw a long-term trend around electrification and the Bears tried to play with balance sheet mathematics of course if I said you can sell 90,000 cars but then if you negative sell a hundred thousand you've not sold ten thousand and you would say what does any of this mean you can use any convoluted logic to try to be short this stock and what you would have done is just lost an enormous amount of money and so what we're gonna see now is that the stock is gonna become part of the S&P 500 it is the leading edge when it comes to electrification and decarbonisation and here's the thing Andrew what the Bulls will get right and what the Bears will ignore from here is that this is no longer about cars that that's the first wave of growth and I think people are pricing in an evisceration of traditional autos and an enormous shift to v's of which Tesla will get the disproportionate share so now what is the bet if you ask me as an investor who loves that company it was in page four or five of their quarterly earnings release where they talk about the energy business and they said a couple of interesting things the first is that it was profitable and the second is that they're also producing software now that allows effectively anybody to become a distributed utility now think about for a second you were talking about one of them predictable reasonable businesses that have raised hundreds of billions and trillions of dollars of debt and what Tesla is going to do with their battery packs and their software's all of a sudden allow each of us to be in the energy business as well again people will get angry they will not understand they will try to push back and they will be wrong and what's gonna happen is that this talk is now going to represent the totality around decarbonisation and sustainability so it was really great to own this thing around cars for the first four years I did it I made a lot of money but now I unders company as a bat towards decarbonisation towards deregulated energy and towards the ability for all of us to become our little micro utilities what is that market worth Jomon I mean I asked us because since the end of March we've seen Tesla add about two hundred billion dollars in market cap so the question is how much of that was captured in that run and how much more is there on the energy side of things and I'm glad you picked up on that because I think it was the second thing that Elon Musk said off the top of the conference call he talked about that business which really shows you where it is positioned in his mind when it comes to the growth of this company I mean to your point and by the way the way you frame it is exactly correctly he has been consistently giving us the trail of breadcrumbs to understand this business he had a quote unquote secret plan that he published on the web then he updated that secret plan and publishes it again so all you had to do was just read it and put together a reasonable one or two page or two underwrite the investment and you know that's basically what I did I try to force myself in these big decisions to simplify things versus complexify them and he told you by the way in this earnings released the next big push is going to be around energy and energy deregulation so what is that worth Melissa this is worth trillions of dollars and the reason is because if you look at the debt stocks and the earnings potential and the regulatory framework that is allowed local utilities to thrive it is measured in hundreds of billions and trillions of dollars and if individuals can get the solar panels by the battery packs and get essentially free software or low-cost software that allow us to collect the sun's energy and redirect it back into the grid what you're going to see are utilities basically go upside down and that was the class of death that people would have told you is completely completely the safest and basically would be you know guaranteed yield ad infinitum and I think in the next 20 years you're gonna see examples where that's not the case
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