COLLAPSE OF EVERYTHING - Economic Disaster Prediction from Charlie Munger

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찰리 멍거의 경기침체·인플레이션·화폐 증발 경고를 소개하는 영상으로, 특정 종목이나 자산의 단기 가격 예측은 포함되지 않음 경기침체 가능성: 인플레이션 상승에 따라 향후 12개월 내 경기침체 확률이 6월 30%에서 47%로 올랐다는 예측을 인용하며, 실업·임금비용·금리 상승 위험을 설명 금리 영향: 변동금리 대출과 신용카드 이자, 자동차·주택 금융비용이 금리 1%p 상승만으로도 뚜렷하게 늘어날 수 있다고 설명 투기 버블: 멍거는 주식시장이 기업의 본질가치와 분리된 투기 카지노가 되어 버블이 형성되고 결국 터진다고 봄 통화 증발과 인플레이션: 무제한 화폐 발행은 장기적으로 부정적 결과를 낳으며, 일본 사례는 예외일 뿐이고 미국은 일본과 다르다고 주장 정치적 리스크: 현재 인플레이션은 볼커 시기와 달리 정치인들이 고통을 감내할 의지가 부족하고, 포퓰리즘과 독재 위험이 커질 수 있다고 경고 달러 가치: 연준 설립 이후 달러 구매력은 96% 이상 하락했고, 멍거는 한 세기 내 달러 가치가 0에 가까워질 수 있다고 예측 장기 전망: 인플레이션을 핵전쟁 다음으로 사회에 큰 장기 위협으로 보며, 투자되지 않은 저축 자산은 인플레이션에 취약하다고 강조 생활 조언: 소비를 줄이고 계획적 구매에 신중하며 시간을 소중히 여기라는 권고, 근대화의 이점(교육·의료 접근성)도 언급

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01. Charles Thomas Munger is one of the wealthiest people in the United States with an incredible investing track record Warren Buffett has identified Charlie Munger as his closest colleague and right-hand man and Monger holds the position of Vice chairman at Berkshire Hathaway the multinational corporation Buffett controls one of the finest investors of all time Munger is now predicting a severe crash in the financial markets and the US economy this may be a scary scenario to many but you need not be alarmed want to find out why keep watching the likelihood of a recession increases as inflation Rises according to a number of recent economic forecasts this could lead to a rise in unemployment wage costs and interest rates recession is more likely to occur in the next 12 months 47 chance now versus 30 in June the National Bureau of economic research or nber is the organization responsible for officially declaring recessions which they Loosely Define as a major fall in economic activity that is spread out across the economy and that lasts for more than a few months a rise in interest rates may increase monthly payments on Consumer loans and credit cards with variable interest rates the cost to finance a car and possibly the cost of a mortgage an increase of just one percent would have a very noticeable impact Charlie munger's predictions if you want to be successful in anything you need to obtain more value than you pay for this is the concept of investment Monger is of the opinion that the stock market has devolved into a speculative Casino where gambling is done and has become separated from the fundamental values of many businesses because of this bubbles are formed which will inevitably burst according to historical evidence unchecked printing of currency would inevitably result in adverse Financial effects in the long run according to Monger the fact that Japan has not been negatively affected by their own money printing may be an exception rather than the rule going forward into the future Monger adds that the inflation that is occurring now is not the same as the inflation that volcker fought against in the 80s and that politicians do not appear to have the same resolve to endure the economic misery in order to combat inflation it may have been okay with most people back then the tolerate Folker to do everything necessary to get the inflation rate under control if it's different today and likely that the current Fed chair won't have the same amount of leeway Munger mentioned what Plato thought took place in the early Greek city-state democracies one person one vote if there's a lot of equality then you will have demagogues and demagogues will stir up the populace and before you know it you won't have a democracy anymore Plato was probably not too far off the Mark when he came up with that and it has been in place repeatedly in Latin America we don't want to proceed in that direction the majority of the time the difficulties caused by inflation led to the development of new leaders who make assurances that they will save the population and bring back prosperity this is typically the path that dictators take to gain power our governments have been printing money hand over fists in recent years the government takes advantage of low interest rates by barring heavily without raising taxes amonger cautions that this is the fundamental issue with loose monetary policy which is that the government loses its ability to exercise fiscal constraint not only do we have a significant problem but the remedy to it which is the easiest for politicians and the Federal Reserve to implement is to Simply print more money this is how we will solve the temporary problems long-term risks are a natural consequence of the situation we are aware of what transpired with the Weimar government of Germany in the 1920s continued to bring more money this ended up in governmental collapse and ultimately led to the rise of Hitler this whole fiscal policy is fraught with risk we don't want to have politicians doing whatever is simple even if it didn't affect us last time that doesn't mean it won't this time if there isn't any self-control involved in fiscal process then you're going to put yourself in some precarious situations however Monger does not believe that Japan is in any kind of grave danger he believes that we will not be able to handle our difficulties as effectively as Japan does because they have already accomplished a significant amount of this and have survived if there are no repercussions for the expenditure and debt of the government then more of the same will be done for political advantage the United States of America is not like Japan in any way shape or form hence we should expect quite different results from our never-ending national debt and currency printing the USA has been the primary driver of global economic expansion during the past Century and the effects of its current predicament could be felt all around the world when the value of occurrency's buying power earnings power and savings value are devalued by the government there is a huge potential for political instability any strong personality who claims to solve all of the country's economic issues and is rewarded with filthy when he successfully does so can become the leader of a western nation which puts that Nation at risk his forecasts cover a lot more ground than just a fall in the stock market they also highlight The Perils of an economic collapse and the possibility of political unrest Monger claims that if you examine the history of the Roman Republic you will see that they engage in consistent currency inflation for a number of centuries in the end the Roman Empire as a whole was brought to its knees therefore inflation represents the most significant threat to our society over the long term second only to the possibility of nuclear war Monger forecasts that within the next Century the value of the United States dollar will more than likely reach zero this is not as absurd as it would first appear since the Federal Reserve was established the value of one United States dollar has decreased by more than 96 percent in addition the value of the United States dollar has decreased by 86 percent just since 1971.

02. when the United States abandoned the gold standard on the basis of the patterns of declining purchasing power seen in the past his prognosis is very close to becoming a certainty this should serve as a wake-up call on the long-term threat that inflation poses the savings account that are not invested in assets significant number of its warnings focus on inflation and the political unrest that it brings about things aren't all doom and gloom there is a potential of a recession but there is also the possibility that certain variables can counter the recession and there are measures that we can employ ourselves to preserve money in the event that the worst case scenario occurs keep watching to find out how advantages of the modern world Monger said that the last 100 years from 1922 to 2022 are fascinating in fact the previous hundred years before that also saw another large chunk of modernization for the 1800s everything had been relatively the same for thousands of years it was a rough and restricted existence the past two centuries have brought quite a few advantages of modernization globalization bring a country up to speed with other industrialized countries requires modernization to collaborate with world leaders and progress globalization it is crucial to regularly Implement improvements the majority of the population lives in cities and has some level of formal education on a worldwide scale education is the key to opening doors to improved job and business opportunities healthy lifestyle generally speaking we are more aware of the importance of health and fitness thanks to the educational practices of the modern day during times of Crisis people from developed countries are more likely to know how to take care of themselves physically and mentally an abundance of information affordability of Health Care Service availability today's society has both more accessible and more sophisticated medical care options at its disposal the convenience of modern medicine and Healthcare Systems has resulted in an overall healthier population in developed Nations many conveniences made possible by modern technology are not without their drawbacks however for both people and the environment dangerous drawbacks are linked to some of the primary problems that contribute to the cons of modernization so what can we do spend wisely Monger says that young people shouldn't waste money on flashy purchases they quickly disappear there is no permanent home for material possessions when you see them in the store they have that brand new gleaming appearance when the packaging is broken open however they quickly begin to deteriorate something brand new is always just around the corner with all new designs looks enhancements and functions everything in our environment improves from garments to automobiles to tools and kitchenware and with the help of planned obsolescence we can rest assured that our newest acquisition will be obsolete in no time the more we shop The more stress we put ourselves through nothing is more vulnerable to damage deterioration or theft than the material possessions we bring into our life all of our material possessions need regular upkeep our possessions demand our undivided attention and effort the spaces must be cleaned organized managed and maintained as a result we tend to focus on them rather than the things that can actually improve our lives in the long run unknowingly people are incurring greater costs with each transaction products are being bought with the hard-earned money from people's jobs as Henry David Thoreau once said the price of anything is the quantity of life you exchanged for it time is what we really trade for goods and services spend each day trying to be little wiser than you were when you woke up day by day and at the end of the day if you live long enough like most people you will get out of life what you deserve Charles T Munger recession may be inevitable yes and anything that can go wrong will go wrong although that does not mean it will happen in the way in which experts predict it will never be the extreme worst case scenario one must stay vigilant if things are going smoothly and always be reminded of the joys in life we must maintain an equilibrium in all of our endeavors if you want to learn about having a wealthy mindset click the videos on the screen thanks for watching