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hi everyone i'm ivan biyuki and welcome back to wall street silver today we have a very very special guest joining us dr mark faber the editor and publisher of the gloom boom and doom report welcome back sir well thank you very much for having me on your program it's always a pleasure to be with you thank you this is perfect timing this is your moment yeah dr boo dr june gloom and and boom uh the chaos of the world but uh ivan go go for it so dr faber russia has invaded ukraine everyone forgot about kovit commodities are going crazy is now the time to panic yes the timing is incredible because just as covet was about to fade out they find something else to distract people's attention from the reality and the reality is if you look we have now a rate of inflation depending on the household you have a different household than i have and so forth but say between 6 and 12 some people will say prices are going up by 12 and others will say by five percent of us but somewhere in that range and the fed the central bank of the united states is discussing whether they want to increase interest rates by a quarter of a percent or half a percent they are mad these these guys are deranged yeah the last time inflation was as high as it is now was in the 70s and at the time the fed fund rate was over eight percent the people at the fed are like a childish group of people playing in a sandbox they have no clue or they are deliberately dishonest about the reality of the situation now in my view they were looking for an excuse somewhere up in the government i'm not sure the president i'm not sure the fed i'm not sure the treasury department all together at the same time but they were kind of looking for an excuse how can we explain to the public a high rate of inflation what is better than to find a war because of this evil putin we have inflation putin has very little to do with inflation but he reinforced the trend because they embargoed him and they imposed all kinds of restrictions so the prices went up but you understand in my view it's very suspect that we have this nine year that we have discovered 2020 at the time when the fed had started to ease monetary policies six months earlier in august 2000 but it didn't help much economically we were in a weak spot in the economy so then they have copied coverage was very bad for small business people and very good for big business people yes that's true um one of the next areas i want to get into you this is a graph we have of this is what russia exports their percentage share of the total world market natural gas wheat crude oil aluminum copper and lots of other things palladium i mean russia is a powerhouse for commodities for the world um are you expecting this to be like a short-term rally or is this the new normal where we're gonna it's gonna be a long-term issue uh that we have with russia in terms of freezing them out of the economy i don't how long can we go without these commodities coming onto the market well they're still coming into the market uh you know because you look say at the natural gas or oil market once oil is in a tank it's very difficult to determine whether it came from russia or whether it came from somewhere else so it's still in the marketplace obviously because of the ban uh on russia and its bank to use the swift system they may be there could be disruptions i don't think the disruptions will be as bad as westerners think but there could be you have to see one thing clearly everybody says oh putin he miscalculated and so forth uh i think that he miscalculated in the uniform response of western government that is uh that is a fact that his actions have kind of reunited the nato because nato is not a very strong organization but his threat has kind of put them together and of course and we all don't know what goes on behind the scenes and how much money is being transferred we also don't know how much money zelenski receives from the us from israel from other countries and so we we don't know but in general i would say with each dollar increase in the price of oil uh russia stands quite okay what i think is interesting in this whole situation if you look at it the paper currency the ruble has collapsed okay that we all agree we can all see it on bloomberg and on other uh currency tables but is the ruble that important for russia or is the other currency which is crude oil and natural gas and wheat more important i am not so sure the countries will be able to really enforce this expropriation of individuals yeah that that was i was asking that question also under what grounds do we start just taking an individual's property uh what i mean unless they're an agent of the state in some way um or i mean how do you take someone's private yacht that's uh just because they happen to have a russian passport i mean i don't know yeah and do you take it with the girlfriends on board the boat and the kitchen staff and so what yeah i think it's a very questionable thing to do to expropriate someone's ship because the ships they are they they they are not registered in russia they're they have a panamanian flag or multi-flag or cyprus or whatever when all these other central banks see how easily we've we've taken away russia's reserves half of them maybe is that pushing them closer to china is that accelerating the decline of the us dollar by what we're doing right now by kicking russia out of swift by freezing so many of their assets is this a big mistake we're making well first of all i don't think they can take half the reserves away because the dollar holdings in russian reserves have declined from approximately 50 percent a few years ago to now only about five percent okay so and number two the major reserves are in gold of the russian uh foreign exchange reserves and i don't think that the russians would be this to leave their gold in an american bank or at the fed so i don't think they will lose all the foreign exchange reserves but of course i agree that they lost a ton of money a because the stock market has collapsed and b because the currency has collapsed now the thing is this with the stock market collapse when you think it's through it say bp and also total they have holdings in russia in the case of bp british petroleum they own i think 12 or 20 percent rosneft and they said they want to sell it okay i think it would be a very interesting proposition a for the russian central bank for the russian government to buy that stake back at the very deep distressed level number two it would be a great idea for china to go to to russia and say look you have all these assets that are being sold we are interested to buy them because they could get reserves at very low cost but that's true so exactly how the whole situation will play out nobody knows for sure we just don't know and also tomorrow there could be a ceasefire i don't think there will be because i think once the american decided we get put into walking to so-called trap or to start the war they won't settle for anything that suits putin right away yes they basically the aggression is to get putin out of the way and put in he will not go out of the way but it's possible that someone in the kremlin or in russia knocks him off so dr faber the what everyone wants to know is you're the master you're the what's happening you're the boom doom and gloom report guy how do you position for this situation i mean you've been talking about preparing for these types of scenarios for many years how do we prepare for it well as i always said if you look at central banks and if you look at the characters at the characters who are at central banks and fix the policy decisions and so forth i think it would be hard to have any confidence in any of these characters so my view would be you have to be your own central bank and i don't think that right now is the best moment to buy gold but i think this situation has shown once again from the eruption of the conflict stock markets got hit they got if hit everywhere in some places more in some places less but they got hit and also bitcoin got hit and in my view precious metals offered some stability of course they're also volatile and sometimes they move up twenty dollars and sometimes they move down twenty dollars but in general they've fulfilled their position of being stable now there are other commodities that have gone up much more wheat is up like 50 in two months that and the fed sits there and says it's transitory i mean it's unbelievable unbelievable you know my advice is i don't think the time is ideal to buy gold here but i've been buying gold for the last 30 40 years every month it's a little bit and so and occasionally i increase the position meaningfully but i never sold anything at all these are my reserves because i do not trust governments but i have to also say i don't trust exact more precisely the custody of my goal do you understand have in the safety post box with banks if they could seize the properties of the oligarchs and if they could lock you down they can also one day say well we'll take you all the way they can also say we take your bitcoins away you understand they can do a lot of nasty things i would also say you understand not everybody has that good fortune but i feel reasonably comfortable with having a real estate in the countryside you know outside big cities uh next to a river ideally so you have water but not not next to a bridge because there are many movies about the war times and bridges the tanks have to cross the bridge and if you have a house next to the bridge i can tell you the house is gone but a house far away from socialists but in the countryside it's not a good investment as an investment but is a safe thing to have in uh difficult times because i'm not sure if you live in new york city or in hong kong or in tokyo or in london in a difficult situation the food may not get into the city that is true yeah like that like the whole trucker experience in uh canada that was a risk and i've seen this is a very interesting it was very interesting experience for me i was in argentina at the height of the inflation in 1985 1985-86 and uh i was talking to ordinary people they say well it's very bad because we don't get any food so i asked how come you're the richest agricultural producer in the world in terms of population in terms of acreage this very rich agricultural country but they said because of the very high inflation the farmers don't want to sell their products wow because if you in a very high inflationary environment which was to brazil at the beginning of the holiday holidays i got for one dollar three uh halfway through the whole holidays it was at six and by the time i left it was at nine the depreciation is of us so in those conditions people don't want cash money they want to hold on to something in those difficult times lots of things become money like cigarette packs become money because it is easy to transfer and then the last thing i wanted to say i always argued for diversification i think it may not be a bad idea to have some assets in latin america and maybe some assets in asia the singapore stock exchange and the hong kong stock exchange especially hong kong is very very inexpensive at the present time because we've been going down since 2015 we're no higher than say in 2006.
and the property companies are at half book value now the property price may go down but this is the reason i emphasize at the beginning the fed they cannot increase interest rates a lot cannot in europe is the same all the governments are bankrupt if interest rates go up a lot yeah so my sense is that actually inflation will accelerate well we look forward to talking to you again in the near future great thank you thank you for joining us and uh you should interview mr putin i sent the invite he hasn't accepted yet but uh yeah now you tell him if he can talk with victoria nuland yeah you
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