저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 짐 로저스는 다음 약세장이 본인 생애 최악일 것이며 실버를 장기 보유 중이나 매수 타이밍은 모른다고 밝힘. 경기·시장 전망: 부채가 2008년 이후 급증해 다음 약세장이 역대 최악이 될 것이라 주장. 현재 미국 주식시장에 비관론이 많아, 우크라이나 평화 등 호재가 나오면 마지막 대형 랠리가 나온 뒤 심각한 약세장이 올 수 있다고 봄. 장기 상승장 끝에는 대형 블로우오프가 나온다고 언급(1990년대 닷컴 버블 사례). 인플레이션·연준: 인플레이션은 푸틴 이전부터 워싱턴이 야기했다고 주장. 연준은 고용·통화 안정 의무가 있으나 실제로는 일자리 유지에 신경 쓴다고 비판. 금리 인상은 40년 만의 고인플레이션을 잡기에 불충분하며, 볼커 시절처럼 크게 올려야 한다고 봄. 연준이 금리 인상을 멈추거나 작게 올릴 가능성 언급. 실버·금: 실버를 현재 대량 보유 중이며 추가 매수 계획 있음. 가격이 9달러 수준이면 매수, 29달러 수준이면 상당량 매수 가능성 언급. 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음. 금보다 실버가 현재 더 좋은 매수처라고 판단(실버가 고점 대비 더 크게 하락). 농산물·에너지: 농업은 역사적 기준으로 가장 저평가되어 있으나 전반적으로 오랫동안 부진했다고 언급. 에너지(석유) 보유 중이며 고점 대비 크게 하락한 상태라고 설명. 출연자 의견 요약: 로저스는 자신이 시장 타이밍에 능하지 않다고 반복하며 구체적 매매 시점은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
so the next bear market when it comes has to be the worst in my lifetime i'm not i'm not trying to scare you i'm just giving you a few facts and the facts are the debt has skyrocketed since the last bear market oh one quick statement in washington they say no we won't have any more bear markets we've solved problems but if you believe those guys don't listen to me hello everyone i'm ivan biyuki and welcome back to wall street silver today we have a very special guest everyone please give a warm welcome to the man who needs no introduction jim rogers welcome back sir i'm delighted to be here alvin it's good to see you again yeah absolute pleasure it's always nice to have you back uh jim the markets are on fire and silver has had a tough run this past year are you bullish on silver now last time we spoke about three four months ago you weren't bullish are you bullish now well i still own silver i haven't bought it yet i told you at the time i was waiting for some kind of correction now ivan i'm horrible at market timing so don't ask me for the timing but i am still waiting i still own lots of silver yeah i periodically buy more as gifts but no i i plan to buy a lot more silver and gold but mainly silver based on current prices when the right time comes and i have no idea when the right time will be you should ask wall street silver they know oh yeah i'm talking to them every single day we're uh we're getting pounded right now but we're we're waiting for silver prices to go up uh moving on to the stock market could this be potentially one of the biggest storms uh we've seen in the markets what's your prediction for let's like let's say the nasdaq will we see another 20 30 drop before this is over we're going to see the worst bear market in in my lifetime and and in your lifetime in 2008 and none we had a bad problem because of too much debt ivan since then the debt oh my gosh the debt everywhere everywhere even china has skyrocketed now so the next bear market when it comes has to be the worst in my lifetime i'm not i'm not trying to scare you i'm just giving you a few facts and the facts are the debt has skyrocketed since the last bear market oh one quick statement in washington they say no we won't have any more bear markets we've solved problems but if you believe those guys don't listen to me what do you make of the sentiment in in the u.s for for the stock market are are we at a point where people rent a hard assets like precious metals well right now there's a lot of pessimism at least i perceive that there's a lot of pessimism in the u.s stock market and that usually leads to a rally a scenario might be that something happens in ukraine peace comes ceasefire whatever and that will cause a huge rally in the u.s stock market but i would suspect that that would be the last rally and then i mean because a lot of pessimism that would be a surprise good news cause a big rally everybody would get excited again central banks would say we don't have to worry as much they do they do but they're not very smart people um and then that would be the end then we would have a very very serious bear market what are you looking for are you looking for like a hedge fund to blow up like what is what is jim rogers looking for to keep his eye out well that's a very good question i would suspect and that something always happens that people are not expecting i would suspect that if nothing else and it works the way i said it would just because it could become a case of wild over exuberance and over value because people would be so excited they would say we don't have to worry because inflate pro wheat prices would go down oil prices would go down so people would say for a while we don't have to worry about inflation we don't have to worry about the central banks the central banks would calm down and that would cause a blow-off often at the end of long bull markets you it ends in a big blow-off uh at the end of the 1990s we had a gigantic blow off in the dot-com boom it often ends that way and that's what i would suspect so we would have a big big rally wilder than eve and i would believe and that would be the end and looking back in uh 2020 they spent billions and billions to stimulate the economy and of course there was a lot of helicopter money going out but now we're at 40-year high inflations in your opinion uh mr rogers is is putin the cause of inflation or is it ultimately the fed balance sheet and and money creation is putin yeah yeah like a lot of people okay which leads to a statement when things go wrong politicians always blame foreigners but ivan this inflation started long before mr putin before anybody could spell mr putin's name no no this this started long before that it's been accelerated because the price of wheat has gone up a lot oil has gone up a lot but no mr putin didn't cause this washington d.c caused this now do you believe uh what we are seeing it from the fed is a mirage and we're made to think that the fed is trying to fight inflation but their actual mandate is just keep the u.s dollar alive or right at the top well they have two legal i mean mandates by law one to make this currency stable one to have good employment full employment that's what the law says uh they don't really pay too much attention at this i tell you they pay attention to keeping their jobs they think that printing this money has what's good for the us they now think first of all and as you know they said oh don't there's no inflation no first of all i said don't worry we have things under control then they said there's no inflation it'll just be transitory ivan i've been around long enough not to listen to these guys i know they don't have a clue and whatever they say is either wrong or maybe even dishonest because they're trying to keep their jobs but to answer your question they did start raising interest rates to some extent but we have had the highest interest of inflation we've had in 40 years if they're really serious about inflation they have to kill it they have to hit it very very hard in the late 70s when we had the worst inflation in a long time the chairman of the federal reserve raised interest rates in a staggering way short-term interest rates went over 20 percent of his name was paul volcker and he he they told him you must kill inflation he did it he knew what had to be done well interest rates are nowhere near 20 now in the u.s these guys have raised interest rates a little bit but for the highest inflation in 40 years raising interest rates piddling piddling pilling is not going to solve the problem do you think they'll pivot or they'll do a pause what's your opinion i don't know what that means i like i don't know government speak i see people in government yeah i've been watching you i've been watching way too much uh powell speaking uh but i'm proud of you do you think they'll contin like do you think they'll just say oh we're going to raise rates but to save the stock market they'll pause and they'll stop raising rates just to save well yeah yeah yes that's what i was saying before if there's peace for instance or for whatever reason they will come along and they will do a little bit but they will not do what's necessary raising interest rates a lot is necessary they will not do that and they will say things like well what we have done is taking effect and now we can slow down i don't think they will say we're not going to raise any more they would just raise by lower amounts and not as often now let's talk about our favorite subject silver do you have any price predictions for 2023 420 2023 for next year oh 2023.
i've i have told you watch wall street silver we're trying to get some opinions from you well my opinion i i i am not a good market timer i am i will say again i am not buying yet i own lots of silver uh i have never sold any silver ice over for many decades so there's a lot of silver over there but uh i am not buying it yet i have no idea what will make me buy silver if silver goes to nine if i'll buy a lot if silva goes to 29 i'll probably buy a lot uh because i do expect to own a lot more silver before this is over so uh right now the difference between gold and silver which is a better buy in your opinion jim silver or gold well in my view and there's a simple facts silver's down dramatically from its all-time high gold is down a little from its all-time high so if i were buying today ivan i would obviously buy a lot more silver than gold and if that continues when i start buying again i will buy both but i will probably buy a lot more silver than i will gold for whatever reason silver is a better buy now in my view than gold but i own both and i will buy more of both especially silver so what are you doing what commodities are you investing in now like sugar what do you think's a good pick well agriculture is the cheapest on a historic basis but i own them all i own energy oil prices are still down dramatically from their all-time high but many things are sugar's done a lot agriculture agriculture has been a disaster for many years i think i told you more people in america study public relations than study agriculture right agriculture has been a horrible place to be the average age of farmers in japan is 66.
the average age of america's 58 i mean wow i doubt if you know anybody you went to school with who became a farmer right no they all went into the silver margin i wish they went all into the silver market they will don't worry they'll be there well mr rogers we want to say thank you and absolutely appreciate you for coming on and hopefully you come back so thank you so much i hope so too ivan i'm a fan keep up the good work awesome and tell us when to buy silver take care you
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