저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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달러 붕괴와 금 가격 급등 가능성을 주장하는 영상. 핵심 결론: 미국 달러 위기가 임박했으며, 금 가격이 크게 오르고 신흥국 자산이 유리하다는 입장. 워런 버핏의 배럭골드 매수는 그가 인플레이션 심화를 예상한다는 신호로 해석됨. 과거 금에 부정적이었던 버핏의 입장이 바뀌었다고 봄. 연준의 과도한 유동성 공급으로 2008년보다 더 큰 부채와 버블이 쌓였으며, 이것이 달러 위기로 이어질 것이라고 주장. 달러의 기축통화 지위가 약화되어 세계가 달러 본위에서 벗어날 것이라 예상. 각국 중앙은행이 금 보유를 늘릴 것이라고 전망. 미국은 수입 소비에 의존하던 구조를 벗어나 생산과 저축으로 재원을 조달해야 하며, 정부 적자 재원 확보가 어려워질 것이라 봄. 연준이 무제한 통화 발행으로 달러 가치를 희생해 주가·부동산 폭락을 막을 것이라는 논리. 주가가 명목상 올라도 실질 구매력은 떨어진다고 강조. 금 가격이 1만~2만, 나아가 5만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 언급. 다우지수와 금 가격이 과거(1932, 1980)처럼 비슷해질 수 있다고 주장. 달러 기준 신흥국 부채가 탕감되는 효과로 신흥국 통화 강세와 생활수준 개선이 예상되며, 미국인의 상대적 부는 감소할 것이라 봄. 현재 신흥국 주식은 약 100년 만에 가장 싼 수준이라며, 미국 주식을 팔고 신흥국 주식을 살 기회라고 언급. 리스크: 달러 가치 하락 속도가 자산 가격 상승을 상쇄할 수 있으며, 명목 수치에 속지 말고 구매력을 봐야 한다는 경고.
다듬은 글
big day of reckoning coming for america and it's coming very soon mainstream financial media is completely ignoring i mean you're asking questions that not only don't they have the answers to but they're not even smart enough to ask the questions when you see a guy like warren buffett moving into a barrick gold as to what does this imply as far as what warren buffett's outlook is for the us economy and for the dollar and for inflation and and for the bond market when buffett was bad-mouthing gold in the past i mean what he really was saying was that gold is not the best hedge against inflation it's a non-productive asset it just sits there and warren buffett always says that he likes to own businesses not even stocks he likes to buy businesses and obviously he does that through the stock market but he's investing in underlying businesses because he thinks that businesses provide a good hedge against inflation they have real assets you can raise prices it's just that now i think warren buffett realizes that inflation is going to be much worse in the future than it's been in the past and warren buffett knows that during periods of very high inflation which we've had in the past that's when gold really shines so i think what this move shows you is that buffett now understands that the traditional hedges that he's used for inflation are not going to be adequate for the severity of what's coming because buffett knows what inflation is he defines it as an increase in the money supply he correctly labels it as a tax uh and so he knows that he knows it's just not rising prices he could see the federal reserve debasing the dollar he sees the deficits he sees all the spending and so he understands goals going to go up but i think the reason he chose to buy a gold mining company rather than just the metal is because he likes the business aspect of barrick gold because they make money mining gold and he's not even buying just buying their income streams but when you buy barrick gold you are in effect buying all the gold in the ground in the mines that they own he knows is going to be far more valuable in the future than it is today i have been warning about a dollar crisis for a long time in fact if you go back to my first book crash proof how to profit from the coming economic collapse and that book predicted the 2008 financial crisis because i wrote about how the federal reserve had inflated this housing bubble and that when the housing bubble popped we would have this financial crisis the worst recession since the great depression 10 unemployment trillion dollar deficits and that i i wrote at the time that the the government would respond to this crisis they would print more money they would slash interest rates and they would attempt to reflate the bubbles i believed at the time that that action that all the money that they would print in order to try to reflate these bubbles would cause a dollar crisis what i got wrong at the time was underestimating the ability of the fed to not just attempt to reflate bubbles but to actually succeed i was surprised that they were able to blow up a bubble that was bigger than the one that popped in oh eight but they did and because they did that we were able to kick the can down the road uh you know until now but during those years of can kicking all of the problems that led to the 08 financial crisis have gotten so much bigger we have a lot more debt now than we did then we made far more mistakes because interest rates were even lower for an even longer period of time so the federal reserve has screwed up the economy in a far worse way than it did before so now i think the dollar crisis that i have been warning about and helping my clients prepare for is just around the corner i mean the dollar is going to implode and and you know you mentioned back in 1971 we went off the the uh the gold standard we did but the world did not go off the dollar standard the dollar was marked down dramatically during the 70s but the world continued to hold it as a reserve currency i think the significance of what's about to happen is the world is now going to go off the dollar standard well people have to appreciate how great of benefit the dollar being the reserve currency has been for the u.s economy it's kind of like if you had a checkbook and you could just write checks and buy stuff you didn't actually have to have any money in the bank you could just write checks and buy what you wanted because nobody ever cast your checks they just circulated people just took your checks and and passed them around and so you could live a great life and buy whatever you want if no one casts your checks and that's what's been going on no one's cashed their dollars in no one's taken their dollars and tried to buy anything that we make they just hold them they buy bonds they buy stocks you know but they don't buy real stuff so we haven't had to make good these ious so we're able to import all these products and consume them and we don't have to export products to pay for them we're able to borrow all this money but we don't have to save the world does it for us so we've had this whole bubble economy this consumer-based economy that is on the foundation of the dollar's reserve currency status when the world rejects that and goes back to the gold standard which is not this archaic thing people think oh that's the stone age we were on the gold standard until 1971.
even though it was a dollar standard the dollar was backed by gold and redeemable in gold so the dollar was as good as gold at least that's what everybody thought who signed on to this so we're going to go back to the monetary system that existed before the dollar was a fiat reserve currency the world is going to back their currencies by gold rather than us dollars that doesn't mean we're going to be transacting in bars of gold it just means that foreign central banks are going to hold more gold and that's going to be the primary asset that backs up their their their currency and so in that world where the world is using real money and not dollars now america is just another country now if we want to consume we have to produce we just can't you know run huge trade deficits if we want to run these big government deficits we got to fund them americans have to save americans have to lend this money to the government you know we can't we're not going to get it from the chinese or the japanese or the saudis now if we try to get it from the federal reserve if the fed is just printing money but the dollar is not being held as a reserve currency then we just have massive inflation or maybe even hyper inflation you're not going to see real estate prices crash or stock prices crash because the value of the dollar may crash more so it's like you know if i'm in a car and i'm going backwards at 20 miles an hour and the car next to me is going backwards at 30 miles an hour it may look like i'm going forwards but i'm not it's just i'm not going back as quickly so you could be losing wealth in an asset that you think is appreciating but it's not because you're measuring the value of that asset in a currency that's losing value faster than the asset itself because the federal reserve can print an unlimited amount of money there's nothing that stops them and that's what they're doing so they're going to destroy the value of the dollar the government is going to try to prevent prices from coming down that's what they want they don't want the stock market crashing they don't want the bond market crashing they don't want the real estate market crashing so they're going to sacrifice the dollar to prevent all that from happening i think gold can easily at this point go to 10 000 15 20 000 uh you know it's gonna go much much higher i mean look at where the dow jones is you know the dow jones is what 26 27 whatever that is uh you know i could easily see the price of gold and the dow jones being the same i mean they were the same in 1932 they were the same in 1980 so i think that they will be the same again i just don't know exactly at what price they'll meet but i'm pretty sure they're gonna meet or come close to meeting and and so it's probably not going to happen with the nasdaq the dow down at 5 000 uh maybe it could happen at 10 000 but maybe it'll happen at a higher number i mean they could both need at 50 000.
you can have the dow jones at 50 000. and gold is 50 000 an ounce but if gold is 50 000 an ounce you have to understand that 50 000 on the dow may mean that you're poor even if you own stocks and the dow jones is at 50 000 if a ounce of gold is at fifty thousand you have to ask yourself how much is a loaf of bread gonna cost me right so everything is relative you know forget about the numbers it's the purchasing power that matters not how big the number is but what you can actually buy i think that when we get this reset of the global monetary system where the dollar is no longer the reserve currency the the country that has benefited the most from this is the united states well it's the emerging markets that have suffered the most they're the ones that have been supplying the united states with a lot of the goods that we don't produce but that we consume and they've been loaning us a lot of their savings uh and so what happens is uh their standard of living has been suppressed they can't consume as much as they produce and a lot of their savings have been loaned to us as opposed to invested productively in their own economy so once the dollar crashes you have all this emerging market debt that's dollar denominated that basically gets forgiven and and now i think these currencies appreciate that takes a lot of pressure off their economies their domestic inflation rates their interest rates and so i think that they're going to just it's like a giant weight that's been lifted from their shoulders they're going to finally get to eat the fruits of their own labor they're going to consume their production and they're going to invest their savings productively in their own economies they're not going to squander it on u.s treasuries so i think there's a lot of opportunity americans are going to see their standard of living go down but across a lot a lot of the emerging markets you're going to see a big increase in the standard of living and relative wealth i think you know asset prices are going to move up as people in those countries become wealthier on a relative basis americans are going to be poorer and therefore our assets are going to get marked down so it's just a lot of opportunity and then if you just look at these emerging markets if you look at the stock prices and compare them to what you're paying for stocks in the united states i mean this is the cheapest they've been in maybe a hundred years we haven't had an opportunity to sell u.s stocks and take the money and buy emerging market stocks at such a favorable exchange rate as what we can see right now you
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