저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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시장 붕괴와 금 급등을 예상하는 영상으로, 결론은 금이 유일한 안전자산이며 주식·비트코인·국채는 위험하다는 것이다. 시장 전망: 코로나19는 기폭제일 뿐 근본 원인은 과도한 부채 버블이며, 2008년과 같은 금융위기가 공식적으로 이번 분기부터 시작된다고 주장한다. S&P500은 아직 20% 하락 전이지만 러셀2000은 25% 하락했고 운송주가 더 크게 빠지고 있다고 언급했다. 금융주·기업: 금융주가 가장 크게 하락하는 이유는 회수 불가능한 대출을 보유하고 있기 때문이며, 호텔·항공사·보잉·크루즈 등 부채가 많은 기업들도 구제가 필요할 것이라고 봤다. 금리·연준: 연준은 결국 금리를 제로로 낮추고 양적완화(QE)로 되돌아갈 것이며, 이는 해결책이 아니라 문제를 악화시킨다고 주장한다. 미국 국채는 가장 위험한 자산 중 하나로 평가했다. 금: 금은 주식 급락 이후에도 상승 중이며, 2008년 QE1 때처럼 1900~2000달러 고점을 뚫고 계속 오를 것으로 전망했다. 무한 양적완화 환경에서 금은 멈추지 않을 것이라고 강조했다. 비트코인: 안전자산이 아니며 주식과 높은 상관관계를 보이고, 시장 상승 시에도 덜 오르는 위험자산이다. 코로나19 충격으로 버블이 터지는 대상 중 하나이며 폭락할 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 정치·정책: 트럼프 재선은 경기 붕괴 책임을 떠안아 어려울 것이고, 바이든 행정부는 대규모 재정지출과 정부 개입을 확대해 통화·국가부채 위기를 부를 것이라고 예측했다. 공화당도 재정적자 문제에 무관심해져 지출 견제가 없을 것이라고 비판했다. 리스크: 부채 기반 경기 취약성, 연준 정책 실패, 통화위기 및 국가부채 위기 가능성이 핵심 위험요인이다.
다듬은 글
you know i think that people have got this wrong you know everybody is looking at this event as deflationary but it is actually the opposite you're going to have a reduction of production so less supply of goods and the world is going to be flooded with money not just the federal reserve uh but central banks around the world are meeting this crisis head on with a printing press as if this is going to make a difference it's just going to make a bad situation worse but you know we are entering another financial crisis the 2008 financial crisis was started by drop in real estate prices this one is started by the coronavirus but what the what's causing the crisis is not the pins but the bubble it's the debt and it was because of all the debt that we had a crisis in 08 and because we have even more debt now this is going to usher in an even bigger financial crisis it probably is starting officially in this quarter uh although they may have to go back and downwardly revise some of the numbers uh but clearly it's starting uh the bear market is starting i mean yes the dow i think in the s p are not quite down 20 but look at the russell 2000 that's down 25 percent uh the the transports are down even more than that and so they're leading the way and in fact you know the russell 2000 that was what everybody billed as the trump trade when trump was first inaugurated yeah you got to buy the russell 2000 it's a pure play on the us economy that's the major index that's doing the worst and then if you look internally it's the financials that are really getting killed and the reason they're getting killed is because they're holding all the bad paper they have made all the loans that are not going to get repaid so this is just like 2008 only it's not just the banks that are going to need to bail out it's the hotels it's the airlines uh it's companies like boeing it's the cruise lines i mean look at all these uh companies that have loaded up with debt because the fed has kept interest rates so low for so long now we have any kind of economic downturn i mean no matter how slight it may be and this may be more than a slight downturn but we were not prepared for anything we had nothing saved for a rainy day and now i mean we might we might not just get a drizzle we might get a downpour but we can't even handle the drizzle because of all the rate cuts in the past uh that the economy is so levered up right now and so vulnerable to this crisis but slashing rates to zero is not the solution right that's more of the problem the fed's going to do it i mean i've been saying since the beginning from before the fed even raised rates for the first time when they were bluffing about their ability to normalize interest rates i said it's impossible that before they succeed they're going to reverse course and go back to zero when the feds said they were going to shrink their balance sheet i said that was impossible that if they tried they would have to abort it and go back to qe and that's exactly what happened and it's not because of the coronavirus because if it wasn't the coronavirus it would have been something else and you know too many analysts out there are focusing on the pin and they can't see the bubble for that pin forget about the coronavirus right what the problem is is the economy it's the leverage it's the debt that is the bubble that is deflating at this point doesn't even matter what happens to the pin because the air is going to come out of this bubble this is the biggest bubble the federal reserve has ever inflated and it has done tremendous damage to the u.s economy and that damage is only going to become obvious to most people after the bubble deflates been an illusion there's never been any strength we've had record trade deficits we've had record budget deficits nothing has changed really since obama was elected we just had a continuation of those failed policies and we just got a bigger bubble and now that bigger bubble is popping and unfortunately donald trump is going to get the blame just like george bush you know the housing bubble popped uh towards the in the last year of bush's second term and that meant john mccain had no choice chance against barack obama well the same thing is going to doom the reelection of donald trump he now has no chance really against biden because everything that collapses on his watch is going to be blamed on him and then by extension on uh tax cuts on deregulation on uh you know on a free market and so biden is going to come in and implement more big government solutions to big government created problems and they're going to give the federal reserve more power to do even more damage and we're going to have a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis uh during the obama during the biden administration if it doesn't start uh before trump even finishes his term but that's gonna be much worse than just a financial crisis like we had last time so we're going to end up getting a joe biden but joe biden's a liberal democrat and he's going to be pushed even farther to the left by the obama wing of the party but the other problem is that during the trump turn trump term rather republicans totally signed on to the idea that deficits don't matter they no longer cared about how much deficits we had or how much money the government spent so there's going to be absolutely no opposition whatsoever when obama was president at least the republicans in the tea party were trying to lean against the expansion of government under obama and they applied some type of break to the spending but that's not going to happen this time around the democrats are going to have carte blanche to spend as much as they want on ridiculous stimulus programs and all of it is going to be financed by the federal reserve they're just going to be printing money and so you know the people who think they're they're buying something safe by buying u.s treasuries wait till they wake up treasuries are probably the riskiest asset that people can be buying what they should be buying is gold because gold is going to be the only safe haven left standing but gold is not down at all gold is still positive over the last several weeks since stocks really started to sell off on coronavirus and all the implications the price of gold is actually going up so gold is so much stronger now than it was in 2008 and if you remember once the market stopped falling in 2008 and then the fed really came out with qe1 and that monetary policy was out there for everybody to see the price of gold recovered it went from about 700 or whatever the low was remember it fell from about a thousand at its peak in 2008 to around 700 maybe a little lower and then it exploded to almost 2 000 i mean the price of gold came close to tripling on qe1 the only reason it stopped going up is because everybody was convinced that the fed's policy worked that it was a success that they could normalize interest rates and shrink their balance sheet well this time nobody is going to believe that lie even if the fed tries to tell it so it's qe infinity the balance sheet i mean interest rates say at zero forever and so gold's not going to stop going up this time it's going to go through that 1900 2000 high of like a hot knife through butter and it's going to keep on rising so you know don't just you know worry hey why hasn't it gone up you know just buy it because it's got no place to go butt up there was a debate going on as to whether or not bitcoin was a safe haven a store of value an asset that people would flock to in times of trouble and financial turbulence uh well i think the answer is no it's not a safe haven asset it is a very risky asset the price of bitcoin has collapsed by more uh than the stock market during uh the last several weeks and in fact it's not even a non-correlated asset a lot of the bitcoin promoters uh when it was clear that kind of bitcoin had decoupled from gold and that it wasn't acting as a safe haven then they started to say well its value is that it's non-correlated but i think that argument has got out the window not that it ever had much validity because if you look at the way bitcoin's been trading throughout this crisis it seems like it's very highly correlated with the stock market when the stock market goes down bitcoin goes down more and then when the stock market goes up bitcoin goes up but it goes up less you know if the market won't go up on good news then i might as well get out because that's a sign that it's about to get killed and i think that's what's going to happen and i've been talking about how this coronavirus is the pin that's pricking a lot of bubbles and it's ironic that one of the bubbles that's being pricked is the bitcoin bubble instead it's going to be the catalyst for it to come crashing down to earth if it hasn't already crashed by the time the happening occurs you
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