저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 지수보다 개별 종목 선별 투자가 유리하며, 시장은 강세이나 리스크 관리가 필요하다는 입장. 시장 전망: 지수는 코로나 충격 후 빠르게 회복했고(1만2천 → 7,500 → 1만2천 복귀), 강세장은 심전도처럼 등락하며 지속될 것으로 봄. 다만 언제든 조정이 올 수 있음. 지수 레벨: 니프티 12,430 부근 접근을 언급했으나, 지수 신고가 여부에는 큰 의미를 두지 않음. 개별 종목이 신고가면 충분하다는 입장. 투자 전략: 지수와 연동해 매매하지 않으며, 좋은 종목을 고르면 사기를 당하지 않을 것이라고 봄. 시장은 항상 종목 선별가의 몫이라는 관점. 리스크: 지수가 하락하면 우량주도 10~20% 하락할 수 있으므로 그 가능성을 감수해야 함. 신중하고 선별적인 매수 필요. 은행주: 아직 매수하지 않았으며 저평가·소외 상태라 상승 여지는 있으나, 향후 6개월간 자금 이동과 금리 등 불확실성이 큼. 기술주 선호: 향후 5~10년간 IT 중에서도 제품(프로덕트) 기업을 선호하며, 밸류에이션은 서비스 기업보다 높아야 한다고 봄. 중형 IT주(라므코 등) 중심으로 포트폴리오를 재편 중. 경기 민감주: 철강·시멘트 등 구경제 업종 회피, 디지털 기술 기업 집중. 텔레콤: 기술 기업으로서 인도 텔레콤도 향후 성장성이 좋다고 평가. 결론: 새 삼바트(2077년)에는 기술 섹터 강세를 기대하며, 추가 종목은 추후 공개 예정.
다듬은 글
I was picking some really good stocks, and I keep watching them, they are currently trading near the highs. Tell me, what is your view for the new year? Well, you should understand that whatever happened was quite surprising, and I think very few people would have thought that this also happens in life, that what you think does not happen, so as the saying goes, a man proposes and a good disposes, it is the same, this bullish market should be kept in mind, and it is possible that there will be problems in the market, it is like a cardiogram, as long as it keeps going up and down, it is alive, so it will continue, but it seems as if this caravan will continue like this, but of course, it is a risky business all the time, so you should always exercise restraint and be cautious here, and I think if you invest in good stocks, you will probably not get cheated.
Choose shares, the market has always been for stock pickers, and look at Vijay Kedia Sahab. After the smile, now look, Bank Nifty is seeing further gains. It was barely 40 points above, 150 points above, and above 122 at this time. Nifty today and yesterday. Since morning, we have been showing how far we are from the all-time high, and see, gradually, we are getting closer to it.
The 12430 level is not far away now. Doctor Sahib, please show that countdown again. KD Sahib, do you feel that this level can be reached even before Diwali? I know, you don't talk much about levels, but look at what you are feeling from within. It is difficult to say this, you will need an astrologer for that.
But I will give you another answer, I do n't think about my investments like this, and I don't even follow the index. I have said this many times on your channel that I do n't follow the index. And the index is different. When the index comes, it definitely brings an atmosphere of joy. And as far as the all-time high is concerned, it is like my age, it happens every day.
It reaches an all-time high, right now our index is rising at the same rate, so I do n't know if it will be on Diwali or later, but it is okay, it may not be an all-time high, and there are many shares which are at an all-time high, so that is a matter of great joy, if the index rises and your share does not rise, then it does not matter, so this is my thinking, Keria sir, Keria sir, tell me, this 12400, after that 7500 and then 12400, although you have said very well that you do not follow the index, but during this entire period, if you see the earning support we got, be it banking, be it mid-cap, be it large-cap, IT, be it pharma, how much did it surprise you, and on the basis of those earnings, what is your favorite thing at this time, sir, see, let me tell you, first let me talk about the surprise, it completely surprised me, if you ask me, when it reached 9000, 7500, that also surprised me, and when it came back to 9000 If it was 10,000 and you had told me that it would become 12,000, I would not have agreed with you.
I do not believe it. But this is a different issue because the index always surprises. The stock market always surprises itself. I would definitely like to say one thing that you should think that the index of stocks settles and comes back to the level of 12,000 in a month. So if we forget about Covid once because no one has the answer to it.
I do not have it at all. I am nothing. People have it, big doctors and presidents of big countries, economists or doctors do not have the answer to it. But you should think that there is a patient who runs so much and is on the index of 12,000. Suddenly, he has some problem and he reaches 7,500. He reaches the ICU.
It seems as if the world has ended. In six months, he recovers and comes back to 12,000. This in itself I am telling you a story, sir. I want to tell you that even though I do not follow the index in the sense that I do not integrate my investments with it. If the index increases, I will buy it; if the index decreases, I will not buy it.
I do not do that. I definitely follow it and watch it. Within the index, it tells a big story of its own, that 12 is 5.5 and 5.5 is 5.5 back or 12 and that too within six months. This tells a big story of the coming future. Something like this was repeated in 2008, the index which crashed. I do not know about Nifty, but let me tell you about BSE.
The index was 21000 which decreased to 7700-800 something in a month and after doing that, it came back to the level of 15000 in three months. That is, after the fast recovery it did not go below 12000. So I think Identity is such a move and this in itself tells a big story. Right now there is an atmosphere of Covid and the market is also so hot.
So, there is a little fear in talking with too much excitement, but you should try to understand this or your audience should try to understand that what is this strength or strength in itself, it is very right sir, you said a very good thing and it is right that around the all-time high, you do not want to sound a little bullish, which is very good and you take care of our audience, that is why you are talking like this, but this sir tells that the story of India is very bright, FII money is coming, FDI investment is coming, GST figures are improving, tell me this, now from here let's talk not about the short term but a little longer term, those who still missed this bus, there are many people who might have missed this bus, I am shy and many people did not understand that the recovery will come so soon, what should they do, should they wait for the dip or should they start investing slowly, stock specific, as you do, see, I feel like this sir, the stock specific approach is the fruit of it They keep blooming all the time; it's not just that such flowers bloom in spring.
So, if you talk about myself, I am fully invested, but I keep refilling my portfolio. So, I have n't faced any problem buying any stock even today because, as I mentioned, I do n't integrate them with the index. So, if I like any stock or think I like it, I am ready to buy it even today. But at this time, you must understand that if the market index falls from here, then those shares will also fall for you.
If you have 100% faith in any stock that it is a very good, cheap buy, a very beautiful share, a very good share, a strong, long-term buy, then also that stock can fall at 10, 15, 20, depending on the market, at any time. So, you should have that mentality in the stock market. And this is applicable forever, not in today's situation; this formula applies in every situation.
So, you should be prepared for the things that you may lose. If I have to look at the prices, I would say selectively, very selectively. I am still keen on buying shares, I can say this for myself. Okay Sir, the word you used, selectively, very selectively, in that selective selection process, where does banking stand at this time because we saw that in the crash that happened in March, banking was the biggest loser, the prices of some shares had become such that it was difficult to believe, where would you place banking at this time, at least see, I have not bought any bank shares yet and I definitely follow them, that is, I follow some shares of every sector, I definitely follow 200, 300, 400 shares, I do not pay attention to other big shares, so as far as banking is concerned, I have not worked in a bank yet and because it is simple, I can get involved in it, bank shares will rise, they can rise because they are under-owned and are also at very cheap prices, and but personally, in my mind, They also do not have the clarity to understand what will happen, after six months or so, these monies will be removed or the interest, there are many things involved in it, so there are many things in the market, sir, if you do not like dal, then you can eat lady's finger, eat paneer, that is your choice, so it is not necessary that we invest in the bank, if I am telling you for myself, if I do not invest in the bank, then I will have some problem, today I am personally facing some problem, sir, with your audio, but KDA sahab's point was very good, some people like dal, some do not like it at all, some like curry or other vegetables, this was a very good point, sir, please complete your statement, I think the audio is correct now, our director sahab is telling, what do you like, please tell me sir, because I remember that in the meantime you liked the system of rum in midcap IT, what results did that stock give, in my opinion, show me the stock around 00 once, doctor sahab, please, how great is the money you have made these days, what thing do you like Are you liking it Ba, if you don't want to take names then at least tell us the story which you like, okay I can hear you sir, I can definitely hear your voice now, so see, as you rightly said that when we last talked, I liked midcap IT, even today whatever I am refining my portfolio today, as I told you, and whatever my focus is on is only on one sector and that is technology, you know, and whenever I get a chance, I remove all my stocks from here and there and I want to focus only on technology, I feel that the time of technology has started and in this also I will give you a little more clarity, in technology also, my focus is strong on product companies for the next five to ten years because it is impossible to say any vision for 10 years right now in such an environment, in the environment of Covid or in an environment of uncertainty, but still we keep the target the same, even if we change our target later, then my focus is on technology and in technology I think product companies have a very bright future in India, and their value is much lower than service companies today.
I think the valuation of product companies in IT should be better than service companies, even higher. So my focus, like you mentioned Ramco, it falls in that category. There are many such companies, so I am focused on that for the next five years. I was just about to ask whether you still find this space attractive or not, because now the US elections came in between, and after that, everyone started saying again, look, the elections have come, even if Joe Biden comes, it will still be a good day for the IT sector.
So, what do you not like at all? Some people do not like Locky Walky at all. They say that no matter what you do, even if you give them money, they will not buy it. What do you not like at all in this market? Please tell me this too. [Sangeet] Please, as I said, firstly, I will recite all the old couplets again.
I can be colourful, as I said, it's an individual choice, so I'm just sharing my personal view with you. As I told you, I haven't made any commitments in banking as of now, and I probably won't do that right now. I focus on that. Apart from that, everyone talks about commodity stocks, saying, yes, the new steel cycle has begun, there's a boom in cement, and it will definitely increase, but I want to avoid all those old economy stocks, so I want to avoid them for now.
I'm only focusing on digital technology, and basically product companies. I avoid all other things. You should understand this from an investment point of view. Okay, sir, you mentioned IT, and especially if you look at product companies, I mean, as an investor, when I'm listening to you, should I focus more on midcap IT?
If you look at it, the last six months have changed all my thinking. When on the first day, we were It was said that you have to work from home, so we did not understand how this would happen, but today a large workforce of IT is working from home and is working very successfully, so what do you think, should we focus more on mid-cap IT, this business has completely changed, we have seen the results this time too, yes, I have a similar view, in this large-cap IT will also do well, but I believe only in the middle class and mid-cap, because I am middle-class, so I invest my shares in mid-cap in the market, so I like mid-cap IT, as you said correctly, and work from home is absolutely correct, earlier it was not thought that this could happen, but 75% of the workforce of big companies have decided, they have declared that you have to work from home only, now some statement has come from TCS or Tech Mahindra that they are doing recruitment on the basis of work from home only, so this has completely changed, the entire scenario has changed that like you They used rotary phones and mobile phones, so with time it is important for you to evolve, it is important for you to change, if you do not change, you will be left behind, people will move ahead of you in life, so that is why you have corrected me, namely IT and product based companies basically or other technology companies, like technology, telecom is also a technology company, if there is technology in it, I like that, telecom technology also has a good future in India because whatever problems telecom had, all those problems seem to be over, as you are seeing that a lot of money has come into the company, Bharti is also recruiting and FUN is also doing it for survival, so any technology company, I like its future, so for the next 510 years, you like this sector, it means in the new Samvat, you are going to be bullish on this sector, some more names will come out in a few days, you are not telling right now, you are saying but I am sure you are saying something else You must be watching technology companies closely, but Sir, before leaving, it has been our custom with you to hum a nice song on the occasion of this moment.
Your voice is so melodious. We always ask when will you come next time and when will we request you. And the one-liners you give on situations, what can I say Sir, let something nice happen before leaving Sir. So, look Sir, I knew that like last time, you would ask something or the other, so I have prepared and done my homework.
So, let me recite a two-line poem for you. It is of two lines and it has been written by Himkar Shyam ji, who is associated with Dainik Jagran. He has written two very beautiful lines. May we get such a blessing on the day of Jyoti Parva. May happiness shower everywhere. May everyone prosper. Wow, may everyone prosper.
Wow, what a Diwali Sarve Bhavantu Sukhi Na Sabka Kalyan Ho Sab Sukhi Rahe. Thank you very much Sir. Once again, many many happy Diwali wishes to you from our side. Thanks a lot. We will meet you again soon and we will see your smiling face again. Thanks a lot, so let's say KD sir, keep a stock specific approach and instead of looking at the index, look at the stocks, the sector which he likes is the mid cap IT product side companies.
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