저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
지난주는 투기적 자산(은·비트코인)의 기술적 디레버리징, 이번 주는 데이터 중심. 비트코인은 기관 채택이 느리게 진행되며 당분간 변동성 지속 전망. 올해 핵심 테마는 변동성·분산·파편화. AI 테마는 무차별 열풍에서 기업 옥석 가리기 단계로 진화, 하이퍼스케일러 과잉투자 우려로 채권 스프레드 확대는 건전한 신호. 고용은 GDP와 디커플링되는 것이 가장 큰 거시 우려이며 AI는 여러 요인 중 하나. 금리는 AI 생산성 향상으로 하향 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Joining us right now is Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor to Allianz, also a board member, Mohamed. We're all trying to make sense of these markets last week. For a moment, seemed like a bloodbath, then things turned around. We got Bitcoin. We're all trying to make sense of of what's exactly happening here.
What is happening in your mind? So, last week was mainly technical, Andrew. It was a deleveraging that started in the most speculative parts of the market. Um silver, Bitcoin, etc. And started contaminating others, but we got the well-established buy on the dip conditioning coming in. So, last week was technical.
The week before was policy news. This week is going to be all about data. So, you know, it's a fascinating time to be observing and participating in these markets. Can you explain the Bitcoin situation? Only in so far as people really bought into adoption. That attracted a ton of speculators. And then you got to shake out.
You see it also in silver. You see it to a lesser extent in gold. And I I think this is what we've seen so far. I think the fundamental theme for Bitcoin is continued slow institutional adoption. And it's going to be volatile until that base of resident investors, not tourist investors, resident investors becomes big enough to absorb.
It is in gold. It's not in silver. It's not in Bitcoin. So, for the we just had um Anthony Pompliano on. We were looking at Bitcoin obviously under 70,000 again. Are you uh we've talked about Bitcoin over the years. Do are you of the view this thing continues to to fall, or do you think this is a bottom here?
I think this continues to be volatile. I have not been a big investor in Bitcoin because I don't quite understand things that go beyond the technicals. Um, but I see it as volatile. This year, as opposed to last year, I think the big three themes that investors have to embrace is volatility, dispersion, and fragmentation.
That is what's going to determine their success this year, whereas last year, it was all about embracing secular themes. So, so we're seeing a change in what is driving markets. And then, when when you think about the sort of technical nature of last week, I don't know how technical it is, because I think to myself, there seemed to be a psychological, for at least a moment, and this is the question is is just how permanent it is or not, and maybe it's not at all, given what happened on Friday.
But, there was a view, all of a sudden, two things going on. One was, "Oh my goodness, uh these companies are now spending too much. Before we used to give people credit, uh stock would go up if you spent a lot of money. Now, maybe not." The second piece was, "Oh my goodness, some of these software companies, uh smaller software companies, are going to run into a lot of trouble because people are going to effectively vibe code the same program." What do you think of those two issues?
So, I think the AI tech theme is evolving. Last year, we embraced anything AI. We fell in love with those working on foundational models. Literally, anything that had an AI label on it attracted money. We're now in a more mature phase of this process, and we're asking the right question. We're starting to differentiate between companies.
A Google versus an Open AI is is is an example of that. Secondly, we're starting to realize that there's a certain dynamic, um driven by FOMO, whereby there will be overinvestment. And the bond market has widened spreads a little bit on on the hyperscalers, and that's the right thing to do. Um so, what I see is that the the themes are evolving from something that was new, that we embraced very holistically, to something more healthy now, where we are starting to ask questions and we starting to differentiate between players.
Mohamed, we're going to have Kevin Hassett on in just a little bit bit. What do you think of the employment picture in America right now? So, my biggest worry on the macro is this decoupling, Andrew, of strong GDP from the labor market. I have a piece coming out in the FT later this week that says this is really consequential in terms of economic, social, and political implication.
It's not the first time we see it. We saw it in the 1990s. We saw it in 2000. We saw it coming out of the global financial crisis. But, this is the first time we see it when the economy has been persistently strong. So, I would ask him, how worried are we that job growth is decoupling from GDP growth?
And if we are worried, what can we do about it? And how worried are you? I mean, that is the fundamental question. How much do we think this is a function of AI? So, I think it's a function of three things. Certainly, AI has an impact. I think also we we are unraveling some post-pandemic behavior. And I think there's general policy uncertainty.
So, AI is a contributor, but it's not the only thing. Um how worried am I? I think this time around, this is going to be a more persistent and more consequential phenomenon. But, it is one that we can mitigate. But, we need to talk about it, analyze it. But, the last thing we want is for GDP growth to decouple from jobs.
Okay. So, Mohamed, here's the real question. And and give credit uh where credit's due to Kevin Warsh. You know, he's been talking for a long time about the idea that AI could create this productivity uh boom, and and that would allow, frankly, uh the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates without actually creation creating more inflation.
But, then you talk about the dual mandate, and you start to think about what do you do about employment on the other side? If you're Kevin Warsh, what do you do? So, I think Kevin is correct. I think that we are entering a period where we will see productivity enhancements if we get diffusion right, if we get adoption right.
I always stress that. I think that will increase the safe speed limit, meaning the non-inflationary speed limit for the economy. And I think rates can come down from here. Um I think if you focus on Kevin Warsh, the tendency has been to focus on rates and the balance sheet. There's a third element, which is the reforms to the Fed.
And I think that is really important because if the Fed is to return to being a constructive policy maker, it needs to reform quite a few things and how it does it. And Kevin Warsh, judging from his April speech in Washington last year, has some pretty good ideas about that.
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