저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Ives는 소프트웨어가 AI 혁명의 핵심이며 시장이 이를 과소평가한다고 주장. Salesforce(PE 약 15배), ServiceNow(선행 PE 약 25배)는 과도하게 매도됐다고 보고 매수 관점 제시. 사이버보안 종목도 긍정적. MSFT는 단기 자본지출 부담으로 '유죄 추정' 상태지만 12~24개월 내 주가 상승을 전망하며 매수 입장. 기업 고객의 5%만 수익화됐다는 점을 성장 여지로 언급.
다듬은 글
Dan Ives is here, star analyst of Wedbush. Um, I mentioned at the top of the program that you moved a couple of really beaten down names into your your AI20, that being Salesforce and and Service Now. Um, what do you make of what Jensen said amidst all of this skepticism about that space? I think the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution will be in software.
Now, look, right now it's data center buildout, GPUs. I mean, you're still in the early days of this what what's going to be a 10-year buildout, but software is going to be key of the use cases. I mean, it goes to our point. If you look at Palunteer and ultimately followed by Snowflake and in my opinion, to say Salesforce and Service Now are structurally broken companies.
To me, look, in my career, it's I think it's the most disconnected call that I've ever seen. investors thinking that software is not going to play a huge part of the AI revolution. It will. That's not to say that certain ones aren't being disintermediated in a extraordinarily large way or there's a belief if they're not today that they will be tomorrow.
Right? As as Brad Gersonner was telling me, you're not selling these stocks because you are so upset with what's happening today. But you now more than ever need to see some justification for the multiples that these stocks have commanded. Let's take that. What what is the what's the PE of Salesforce and Service Now?
Can we show that there? There it is. So, okay, Salesforce is down to 15. The forward on service is is almost 25. Is that justified? Well, it's my view that like the monetization because like when I when I look at the revenue for a service now or Salesforce, I could argue there's 20 30% incremental revenue from where they are today.
We're talking, you know, ultimately tens of billions of dollars you when it comes to Salesforce that are not factored in to the valuation because I get in the near term it's a headwind. bending off I I think would be the first one to admit it but to say that Salesforce and Service Now given how integrated they are in enterprises in the stack you look at the hundred thousands of customers as these use cases play you haven't seen it today but in the next 6 9 12 18 months I think what Jensen talked about is exactly right you cannot paint all of them with the same brush you can't just say an SMV pure play is they're going to be impacted as much as a Salesforce, an Adobe, a Workday.
I mean, not everything has traded miserably, but but obviously so many have. I mean, when you look at all these companies, how do you know what justifies a higher multiple versus ones that don't? We showed a pretty good discrepancy in the forward pees of both of these names, which have equally gotten hammered.
You can maybe can you look at a salesforce and say okay at 15 times earnings that stock has corrected enough that it looks attractive but just because you can make that case for one doesn't necessarily mean you can make it for the other but you are because I view it as snow salesforce is the one if there's one name that's been so dislocated relative to what I believe what the opportunity would be it's sales force and I could also argue some of the cyber security names like powto and crowdstrike when I look at service Now betting against McDermott has been the wrong move.
If you look at that install base now, I could say they were early on in terms of AI and now they're really sort of being viewed as they're going to be disintermediated. But Scott, like I've talked to what 40, 50 CTO's, csos, IT managers over the last week to make sure the stress has to make sure that I'm not looking at wrong and I feel further conviction in this.
So can you adjust those those that's like asking people on the on the football team, hey, how's the team? Everybody's like, "Hey, we're great. Everything's great. Can you can you trust that you're getting the the best opinions on what's really happening by asking the people who are at the companies where their stocks are are declining?
Aren't they all trying?" I'm talking about the buyers. I mean, the buyers of Salesforce, the buyers of Service Now, the buyers of cyber security. And I feel I come away viewing this as I mean, I'd say it's a generational type of opportunity in terms of what's happening in software. Okay. Let me ask you this.
Microsoft got downgraded today by Melius, which says, quote, "Satcha lost the AI narrative." I know you you're gonna counter that. Um, but doesn't the stock kind of worry that Melius is right? Yeah. and and Ben an analyst you know who I have huge respect for I think but is there but but you the AI revolution is not gonna be successful unless Microsoft successful because of how integrated they are in enterprises in Azure in the backyard of you know ultimately really the core enterprises move into AI have they hit some sort of perception soft spot here relative to Azure relative to capex in terms of that not all being allocated ated to Azure.
Yeah. But I think this is one where when I look at Microsoft, I think it's a stock that has a five in front of it and six in front of it over the next 12, 18, 24 months. I just think near-term, right now it's a guilty till proven innocent. Well, I mean, how do they prove themselves to be innocent that Melius suggests today that they need to increase their capex marketly, that's the word that they use, not me, to keep pace with what Google and Amazon are doing.
So, their free cash flow, at least in the near term, is going to take a big hit. Isn't the market aren't investors going to have a problem with that? I think investors clearly, you've seen that since the quarter, right, in terms of the selloff. My view is when it comes to micro, they're not going to have to increase capex maybe to to the level that that they're talking about as well as also when it comes to the enterprise, the monetization, they've only monetized 5% of the of their enterprise customers.
That's why I'll bet on the Dela and Redmond to navigate this. book right now. It's, you know, there's obviously very negative sentiment.
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