저자: JensenHuang · 외국인
요약 보기
AI는 컴퓨팅 방식을 근본적으로 바꾸는 역사상 최대 인프라 투자 사이클이며, 2025년을 기점으로 AI가 유용해지고 토큰이 수익화되면서 수요가 폭발적이다. 하이퍼스케일러의 대규모 설비투자는 정당하며 현금흐름이 곧 증가할 것이다. 2008년 아마존 AWS 투자 사례처럼 지금의 지출은 나중에 큰 수익으로 돌아온다. 과거 닷컴 시기와 달리 GPU는 전량 임대 중이며 구형 GPU 가격도 오르고 있다. 엔비디아는 최대 공개 보유 종목이며 인프라 빌드아웃은 향후 7~8년간 지속될 전망이다.
다듬은 글
It's an interesting time to have you obviously which anytime is but especially given what's been happening within the market today looks a lot different than the last couple of days have the market obviously concerned with what's happening on the spending side of the the hyperscalers and this big buildout in AI what's your take from that the way the market continues to react to this
demand is skyhigh and there's a fundamental reason for that we're in the once- in a generation infrastructure buildout this is the largest infrastructure buildout in human history and there's a fundamental Reason for that artificial intelligence is going to fundamentally change how we compute everything.
Everything from database processing, the way we do search, the way we do recommener systems, the you shop, the way you watch movies, and of course these new agentic systems that are being that that are being developed and evolved. Last year, this last year, we saw an inflection point in AI. AI became super useful.
No longer hallucinating, it's generating informed content. It's reasoning. It's thinking, it's doing research. It's able to use tools. All of a sudden, AI over the last couple of years went from being curious to super useful. The inflection point also came with it, profitable tokens. Anthropic is making great money.
OpenAI is making great money. If they could have twice as much compute, the revenues will go up four times as much. I mean literally these guys are so demand cons so compute constrained and the demand is so incredibly great the number of uh enterprise users the number of consumer users the number of startups are being built on top of these companies it's just going through the roof.
So when you see numbers that are frankly remarkable that $660 billion this year will be spent by the hyperscalers as we continue to learn like we did from Amazon last night. you sit back and think to yourself that's completely justified based on what you see. It is appropriate and sustainable and the reason for that is because all of these companies cash flows are going to start rising.
You know people are comparing it to cash flows. One of those numbers are wrong. It's just the cash flow is wrong. We are addressing the largest software opportunity in history. For the very first time software is not just a tool. A tool is like Excel. Now software uses tools. So these AIs use Excel.
And so I think the the uh the opportunity to to uh for this new new era of software is incredible. And we're seeing it already uh moving the earnings of Meta. Nobody uses AI better than Meta. And so if you look at the way that they're using AI, AI went from a recommender system running on CPUs to now a generative AI agentic system that is making recommendations.
Everything from the way they social media works and the way they they recommend ads and help uh advertisers create content has fundamentally been changed and their earnings show it and that's the reason why they're investing so hard. They see just a much larger future potential for it and not just one company.
This is going to affect AWS's shopping and the way they recommend goods. This is going to affect how Microsoft's enterprise software works. Every single company is is sees the same inflection point and that's why everybody leaning in so hard. I feel like that's the point that you were it's an interesting point.
It sort of turns the way you you need to think about these businesses on its head that if you're just fixated on the spending side as you were talking earlier about oh they're spending such a huge portion of their free cash flow you're kind of missing the story. The market needs to get its arms around that.
Do you as well as an investor? Yes. I if you turn the clock back Scott to 2008 2009 right Amazon could have taken their profits and sent them back to us by way of dividends. Instead, Jeff Bezos said, "I'm going to invest in this thing called AWS." Think of it as digging a gold mine. You have to spend a lot of money to dig the gold mine before you get the money before you get the gold out.
These guys are digging the biggest gold mine in the history of software, right? But it costs something up front. Now the question is do you believe Andy Jasse and Mark you know Mark Zuckerberg and Sundar and Jensen that this opportunity is that big or do you have a special insight that causes you to understand there's no gold in the bottom of the gold mine.
As an investor I'll just tell you this. I want my personal net worth I want my funds net worth levered against AI because all human progress is going to be derived from machines helping humans think and augment human thinking. And so whether it's owning Nvidia, which is our largest public position, or whether it's Anthropic or OpenAI, all of these companies are going to be tremendous beneficiaries.
And they're doing it at scale. There are increasing advantages to scale, right? And so I think it's hard for people to get their arms around now, just like it was in 2008 and 2009. But thank God Jeff Bezos did that. Now it's $140 billion business generating 30 billion a year in annual profits that people criticized him for investing in back then.
How can it's just it's incredible that OpenAI and Nanthropic are 20 billion run rate companies profit generating profitable revenues and accelerating growth all at the same time. These are extraordinary things and it makes perfect sense from where we sit. How can we be so certain that the amount of compute we think we'll need and that we continue to hear from CEOs like you that we will need is actually going to come to fruition.
Isn't it inevitable that we're going to at some point overdo it? But we're not going to know that until it's too late. It's not like roads. Roads once you lay it down, it stays fairly useful for a long time. The way computers work is you build up the infrastructure, but then you start replacing it five, six, seven years later.
And so I think it's going to take us some seven years, eight years to build up to the level that we have to sustain. And after that, we're going to be refreshing and slightly growing. And so we've got several years of build out ahead of us. The the important thing is this. You have to go back to first principles.
Computing has fundamentally changed. It used to be pre-recorded. Excel and PowerPoint and all these tools and all the software is pre-ompiled. They compiled it and they sent it to us. The way software works now because it's contextually aware every single time you use it, it takes into consideration the context, who you are, what you're asking about, what's happening to the world, what other information you give it, the context.
And every single context is different and every single response is different. So from now on every single pixel every single beep of a sound every video that comes out of the computer is generated in real time and that's the reason why we need computers to operate software at such a large scale going forward and all these tokens are what we call intelligence and for the first time we have we're generating something of tremendous value intelligence as numbers and these things we as I mentioned earlier this last year we went through an inflection point because these tokens became profitable and so we just have to make more of it.
Can you blame in some ways investors who have PTSD from the last time tech went through this revolution and evolution at the same time for seeing certain things that remind them of then and worry that they'll happen again. It's good to always reflect on history. Um history informs us but history doesn't repeat.
And so you have to take into consideration what's actually happening. Always go back to first principles and think about what is actually happening right now. The fundamental difference a huge difference between now and um some things that happened in the past with the internet there was a ton of dark fiber.
There is no there are no dark GPUs. 100% of the GPUs are rented. In fact GPUs that we sold six years ago the prices are going up. It's not like it's antique. I mean, it's incredible. It's like a flying wine. The demand is so high that GPUs I sold six years ago are going up in price. And so, I think the demand is just incredibly high for the reasons that I just said.
One, we went through an inflection point. AI has become useful and very, very capable. Two, the adoption of it is incredibly high. And three, because these AIs are thinking, the amount of computation it needs is great. And so to the extent that people continues to pay for the AI with you know and the AI companies are able to generate a profit from that they're going to keep on doubling doubling doubling doubling.
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