Market bounce back has to do with spending hyperscalers are planning: Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

하이퍼스케일러들의 약 6,500억 달러 규모 AI 설비투자가 경기를 자극하고 있으며, 자산 전반이 강세다. 경기는 팬데믹 이후 견조하고 침체 우려는 없다고 본다. 아마존·엔비디아 등 메가캡은 투자자 수익 측면에선 부진했지만 기술주 경쟁이 오히려 마진을 유지한다고 평가. 단기 조정 가능성과 시장 확장(breadth) 필요성을 언급했다.

다듬은 글

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01. Let's bring in Ed Yardi of Yardeni Research. It's great to have you here. Really appreciate it. First top level thoughts about the market today. What do you think is going on? Happy days are here again. I mean across the board, everybody's buying buying buying not just stocks but Bitcoin, gold, and uh so the asset a lot of asset classes are doing extremely well.

02. And I I think a lot of that has to do with all this spending that these uh hyperscalers are are planning to do. $650 billion this year is going to be very very stimulative to an economy that honestly doesn't really need to be stimulated. We also have uh refund checks that are coming uh that are going to be very large.

03. Yeah, it's amazing to contemplate. So what here's what's ironic. So Amazon shares are down 8%. Our guest last hour said yeah they're a little behind as far as he's concerned and need to spend this 200 billion figure to catch up. The rest of the market is cheering. Nvidia is up 7%. Everything in the AI value chain is like great.

04. We're thrilled. Glad to hear it. Nobody's talking about a recession and uh the only question is how big a boom are we going to have from all this. Right. J the Atlanta, what is it? The Atlanta GDP. Now, I know it fluctuates, Ed, but it's showing about a 5% GDP growth. And I think you're touching on a really important topic because we like to keep things simple here.

05. We say, okay, Meta or Amazon is spending a billion dollars on a data center. What we don't talk about is that there's probably 500 to a thousand vendors, y different companies inside of every data center, whether it's the steel company or the concrete maker or the computer company or the the wiring.

06. The company makes the wires that trickles down across the board. It's a huge stimulus to the economy. Well, the economy, first of all, has been amazingly resilient since the pandemic. I mean, since the pandemic, we had a two-month recession and it was engineered by the government. They shut everybody down.

07. They locked us up. Uh, ever since then, it's just been up up and away. I mean, think of everything that's happened. We've had the pandemic. Uh, then we had the uh the the supply chain disruptions, inflation soared, the Fed raised interest rates, we had tariffs, and here we are all-time record high in the markets, and the economy absolutely booming at an all-time record high.

08. You have to think a couple of thing. I mean one falling interest rates now are helping chat GBT AI it helps sure you guys called this you know a few months ago and said look the AI while this investment is great for the broader economy the mag seven are turning on each other I love how you put it said they're no longer little kingdoms with their protected modes each in their own way of thrones game of thrones so who do you have an opinion on who emerges triumphant or is the point that we have to

09. I think that's what's so exciting about it you know it's like for for uh one day it seems like one of the hyperscalers has an advantage or one of the LLM model makers. Uh, and now, you know, Open AI comes back with, well, we'll we'll we'll we'll call your uh your shot here and do better than you. So, there's a lot of that going on.

10. Here's what makes me the most optimistic about the markets. Um, and I'd love to get your take on whether this is the right view or the wrong view. Amazon, to your point, down 8% today. Amazon has actually not made investors money in just over a year and about a year and a half. stock's kind of the same price it was in the fall of 2024.

11. Nvidia hasn't made people a lot of money. I'm talking about investors, not day traders in about 9 months. But the markets have done well even with some of those stocks not participating. Very impressive, right? Because for for the past few years, there's been this concern that the concentration of the market in just a handful of stocks made it very vulnerable to a bare market.

12. It's like lo and behold if something terrible happens. I mean we had deep seek as a stress test. This is sort of a deepseek moment where people are once again assessing is all this capital spending actually going to be profitable. I think it's going to be profitable. I mean these are smart companies run by very smart people and they're looking at their dashboards.

13. Oh my god we're running out of capacity. You know we could be making a ton more money if we just build that capacity. And everybody looks at all that spending relative to to today today's uh cash flow, but there's going to be a lot more cash flow down the road. Are you long-term? So, a lot of people who have been in these names are worried when they hear something like the the Mag Seven and think this is a fight to the death and if we don't know who's going to win, maybe I should move to the sidelines.

14. What is the type if you're hanging on for the long run? It sounds like you're saying it's not a problem. This is just kind of a near-term. Yeah, this is just a near-term issue. I think uh look the magnificent 7 can't be magnificent without selling all of their technologies to the impressive 493 in the S&P 500.

15. Uh it's I was just asked recently about the Dow. You know, kind of a old-fashioned kind of index and it's doing extraordinarily well. To me, that's kind of confirmation that all of this is going to be very is already and will continue to be very positive for the economy. If it's good for the economy, it's going to be good for all these companies.

16. All that's really happened is we're seeing more competition in the technology space and technology I mean they literally eat their young as as as soon as they create one product they're already working on destroying it by coming up with another product. That's just the nature of the business and by doing that they keep their margins up.

17. So I'm not too worried about technology but I did think that it got a little over down there and so I did call for a bit of a relative correction and a broadening in the market. these