저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 인플레이션이 장기간 높게 유지되며 장기 국채금리가 더 오를 수 있다고 보고, 가격결정력이 있는 로열티형 기업에 투자하라고 주장한다. 금리 전망: 정부 셧다운·데이터 공백, 채권 공급 과잉(중국·러시아·사우디 매도), 높은 재정적자로 인해 단기간(수주 내) 장기금리가 큰 폭 상승할 수 있다고 본다. 30년물 금리가 5%대를 돌파하고 10년물도 5%에 접근할 수 있다는 견해다. 다만 이는 채권 자체가 아니라 금리 수준에 대한 전망이다. 인플레이션 배경: 2012년 연준 2% 목표 설정, 2020~21년 대규모 재정·저금리로 수요 급증 및 공급 부족(중고차 가격 급등 사례) 발생. 지정학·공급망 재편, 친환경 전환 비용, 임금 상승 등으로 구조적 인플레이션이 3% 이상 지속될 것으로 봄. 투자 전략: 인플레이션을 견딜 수 있는 '로열티형' 기업 보유(유니버설뮤직, 알파벳, 레스토랑브랜즈인터내셔널, 힐튼, 로우스, 하워드휴즈, 캐나디안퍼시픽칸자스시티, 치폴레). 가격결정력과 자산경량 모델이 핵심이며, 할인율을 약 9~10%로 두고 가치를 평가한다. 리스크·조건: 인플레이션이 8% 등 극단적으로 변동하면 기업 경영이 어려워진다고 언급. 금리 상승은 주식시장 변동성을 키울 수 있음. 장기 국채는 단기 경기 투기 수단이 아니라 구조적 힘을 반영한다고 경고. 출연자 전망: 주식은 가치 있는 기업에 투자하면 인플레이션 환경에서도 수익을 낼 수 있다고 보며, 금리 상승 국면에서도 긍정적 시각을 유지한다. 참고: 영상 설명란이 비어 있고 채널 설명은 자동 인식 자막 기반 요약임.
다듬은 글
again my view is inflation or kind of the house view is inflation is going to be persistently higher and that can to happen in the very short term like like literally weeks and I think the structural forces have changed billionaire investor Bill Amman just issued a warning about the future of inflation but don't worry it's not all bad news and you'll see why during this video for background Amman recently gave a rare full-length sitdown interview while this interview touched on a wide range of topics it was amman's comments around inflation that really caught my attention you're going to want to hear what he had to say in this video we'll explore amman's take on the economy his reasons for believing inflation won't be going away anytime soon and most importantly how you can protect your money from the devastating impacts of high inflation and by the end of the video his practical strategy to make huge profits out of this situation let's dive in are you are you still figuring that rates at the long end the 30-year for example or however on the long end are still going to go higher yes I look I think there's even in the relative short term there are a number of reasons why rates can move a lot among them right we have a government shutdown we're going into what looks like a highly probable government shutdown we're going to have a data shutdown right all these little government agencies that put out data that the Federal Reserve relies on to decide whether to you know adjust interest rates they're going to lose access to that data so we have to sort of like kind of dark period uh we have probably the worst technical environment in our lifetimes for supply of bonds versus buyer bonds right we have China selling we have Russia to the extent they us Securities and more selling we have Saudi Arabia selling um and uh you know we have an economy that is still strong and inflation you know three and a half 4% uh persistent but you know my our view is basically you're not being paid enough to enter into a 30-year contract with the US government at to fixed price you know 4.7 or where it is now um doesn't make sense in a world where we think structural inflation is north of 3% for the for the very long term and we went through this very unusual period with extremely low interest rates um you know where everything just got cheaper and you know you know since the financial crisis you know the effort of the Federal Reserve was to make sure we didn't have deflation you know let's the aspirational goal is to get to 2% inflation and then the pandemic and you know trillions of fiscal stimulus you know the psychological stimulus of being free to to roam after being locked up you know all of these factors coming at once kind of lit inflation and we still have this massive deficit spending we still have infrastructure uh spending they're you the government's selling literally hundreds of billions of dollars of Securities you know uh um bills and and and at some point they're going to have to sell more and more of the longer instruments and if you look at the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve it's it's it's an imprudent balance sheet uh you know if you think about the United States right if you were If This Were Like a business you wouldn't have so much shortterm you wouldn't have you know a third or more of your debt repricing within the next year you know so it's not been managed you I think actually stepan did a good job as treasury secretary the one thing he missed is he should have issued a lot of 30y year 50 year 100e paper at at at crazy low interest rates and and that's going to be a burden hearing a hearing a lot from investors these days Ken Griffin was on our Network within the last week or so I just had a conversation with Rick reer of black rock those who are talking about the possibility of much higher real rates for much longer than people think for the very reasons that you're talking about the issuance is so massive and where are the buyers going to come from and the result of that is going to be higher yeah real yields I don't about much higher real rates uh I think we're I think you know again my view is inflation or kind of the house view is inflation is going to be persistently higher well you are the house I I guess I control the door on the way in and out I guess but um you know our view is really that uh we're in a different world and you know the world sort of changes gradually uh and you have a generation of people are used to rates you know for sounding like a high interest rate and and it's you know on a historical basis it's an extremely low rate of interest so I would not be shocked to see you know 30-year rates well you know well into the you know through the five barrier uh and you could see 10 the 10e approach approach five J and that that can happen in the very short term like like literally weeks SE a huge move in the last number of weeks and I think a lot of that is investors kind of rethinking you know what's interesting about the 30-year treasury is people reflexively uh buy it whenever they you know because they've made money doing it in advance of a a recession but it's really not an instrument you should use to speculate on the short-term economy it's it's a fixed price contract with the US government for 30 years and reflects really structural forces and I think the structural forces have changed in the past few years the rate at which prices have been climbing has hit a level we haven't seen in ages to find a similar time you'd have to look back to the early 80s for a long time the big talk was about how inflation was too low with some even worrying about deflation which means prices are dropping instead of going up that might sound good at first but it's actually not so great for the economy back in 2012 the Federal Reserve let's call them the nation's money managers set a goal to keep inflation at a steady 2% per year hitting this target proved harder than expected and it led some people to believe that Rising prices wouldn't be a big deal in the future inflation is really all about how much stuff is available versus how many people want it if a lot of people want something that isn't available in large quantities prices go up for example during 2020 and 2021 the government made it easier for people to have money through direct payments and low borrowing costs this meant that more people had the means to buy things like used cars at the same time car manufacturers were struggling to get the parts they needed so fewer new cars were being made with fewer new cars people kept their older ones longer and the number of used cars for sale went down this mismatch led to a spike in used car prices pman who's made billions has a hunch that the prices climbing all around us aren't just a temporary thing he's looking at the big picture and seeing a bunch of changes that hint at this for one The Whole World's in a bit of a shuffle politically and economically things are moving around in ways we haven't seen before also it's getting pricier to make stuff overseas which used to be a bargain at the same time people who work for a living are standing up for bigger paychecks and that's changing the the game too then there's the big leap towards green energy which isn't coming cheap and have you seen the gas prices lately they're so high that everyone's starting to think that digging deeper into our wallets might just be the way things are going to be from now on now the Federal Reserve those folks who try to keep our money worth something might just keep cranking up the cost of borrowing money they're hoping this will cool things down a bit on the price front sure they they' managed to get a grip on inflation for now pulling it down from Skyhigh levels but if amman's right and prices stay stubbornly high we might see those interest rates climbing even higher that's a situation that usually makes investors nervous and can send the stock market on a bit of a roller coaster ride Amman though he's not sweating it he seems to think that like everything else we'll adapt to this new money landscape take a listen you must be negative the equity Market how could you have a positive view of stocks if you think that that's the outcome for bonds yields because if you own high quality uh key is owning businesses that have pricing power businesses that can do well in a world of and by the way many businesses can do well in a world of 3% inflation the key is it's hard to manage a business in a world where inflation is volatile or or inflation is 8% or you know the kind of crazy numbers um but many many businesses can do very well in a world of a 3% inflation and the kind of companies we own they're very much like royalties you know so we own Universal Music which is a royalty on listening to music if there's music playing out there Universal is getting a fraction of a penny for every song uh you know that's being streamed um you Google Google's a royalty if you will on people advertising you know on the web right or on YouTube uh restaurant Brands is a royalty on people eating at Burger King or any of their various Concepts Hilton is a I continue you know royalty on people staying in hotels and and and uh eating and drinking and going to events the beauty of these kinds of businesses is you know actually inflation is ultimately their friend right as long as they can keep their costs as long as their costs don't inflate as quickly as their as their revenues and I think the nature of those so so I I feel comfortable owning those kinds of uh businesses even if inflation remains high and and also again I historically you if you think about you know what is the value of a business it's the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life discounted back and appr interest rate we were not discounting businesses back using 2% as an appropriate rate of interest so we' historically you know our discount rate we've used you know just rough measures more like 10% uh 9% you know numbers which discount the uncertainty inherent of investing in equities let's delve into the stocks Amman holds to understand practically what his strategy is to make huge profits out of this situation surprisingly his Hefty $1 billion investment fund is spread across only seven companies it appears as eight stocks due to his investments in two different classes of shares in alphabet his selection includes a mix of eateries such as Chipotle and restaurant Brands International the umbrella for Burger King Tim Horton popey's and Firehouse Subs he's also invested in the hospitality giant Hilton the Home Improvement retailer L the real estate firm Howard Hughes the railway operator Canadian Pacific can City and alphabet which is the parent company of tech Giants Google and YouTube after a thorough analysis of the companies in amman's portfolio two key characteristics emerge that enable these firms to not just withstand inflation but potentially benefit from it in fact some of amman's picks might even see better performance if inflation Rises first up is pricing power this is the ability of a business to hike prices without losing customer customers take Canadian Pacific Kansas City for example a railway company that Amman has invested in given its essential service of transporting goods over long distances it's often the go-to option over costlier truck deliveries this leverage allows them to charge more if necessary Chipotle is another of amman's choices that has shown robust pricing power the chain has cultivated a dedicated customer base that didn't bark even when menu prices went up during Peak inflation times Warren Buffett famously said that if you can raise prices without losing customers you're on to a winner but if you have to agonize over even the smallest price increase that's a business with problems the second feature to look for is what's known as an asset light approach these are companies that don't need a lot of expensive physical assets to function to put it into perspective consider the airline industry which is on the opposite end of the spectrum it's very asset heavy for instance American Airlines had around 40 billion dollar in aircraft a value that dwarfed the company's total market value at the time on the other hand look at restaurant Brands International RBI another of amman's choices RBI runs a franchise model where they don't have to own the physical restaurants local franchises do RBI simply collects a often a portion of the sales without the heavy costs of property and Equipment this setup makes the RBI largely resistant to inflation in fact as prices and sales increase due to inflation rbi's earnings from franchise fees could rise without incurring additional costs amman's investment strategy is to focus on businesses that act as royalties in their Industries reaping benefits as the industry grows and navigating through inflation efficiently whether his insights on inflation and interest rates will hold true is yet to be seen however with billions in investment success amman's moves are worth watching for any investor aiming to sharpen their strategy thanks for watching subscribe for more weekly investment tips leave a comment below happy investing
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