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good afternoon everybody today I'm chatting with famed investor Jim Rogers in this interview we discuss what's really going on in China we get into the risk that the Japanese Yen poses for the global economy I get Jim's thoughts on the US dollar and we also discuss what it was like to invest in the pre-internet era as opposed to today I'm really grateful that Jim took the time to hop on here and chat with me I know that our audience loves hearing from them all right everybody enjoy the interview Jim thanks so much for joining us today I am delighted to be here Steve good morning good evening whatever it is good evening it's it's evening here in uh in Ontario Canada so Jim let's start off with uh China this morning we got a uh news the China's population is negative for 2022.
uh what what do you think is really going on here what impact does negative population growth have on uh China and the global economy well I mean for many years China had the one child program which was affected by admitted they could only have one baby and and it was in force so most people did not have enough children to replace the population and now they're paying the price for them and of course as any population ages some people died if you're not not having new people and new web address your population is going to decline and it's not been a very prosperous year for the world so it's it's normal that people don't have many babies when things are having problems uh also this week we saw Goldman Sachs and UBS placed bullish bets on global assets based on the China reopening trade do you think that China reopening is going to cause Commodities rally well the China reopen and it's certainly going to be good for the world economy they have been very closed I was there in November and I could attest to the fact that they were very close and when that you have that kind of economy people are not and cannot spend much money of course it's going to help now that they're opening up but it doesn't happen overnight this is the major Chinese holiday coming up which will help some but still people are many of people in the world be included have been shell-shocked by what has been going on I read lots of stuff on the internet about China and you never really know what's accurate I I'd love to get your take on what's happening with the Chinese real estate market right now it seems like prices aren't actually down that much despite the fact that we see all these headlines about people not paying their mortgages or low volume what's what's really going on with the Chinese real estate market well China is that above them which has been developing for several years um everybody wanted to buy Chinese property and that they did prices went up a lot and it started into a bubble in many parts of China Beijing and other governments local governments talked about stopping it they complained they certainly were not happy with what was happening but nobody took firm enough actions to pop the bubble now it seems that the market has popped the bubble on its own bubbles always pop eventually on their own and that seems to be what's happening now we have a slowing economy because of the virus and other things overextended players many of whom got serious economic problem financial problems now we're having the results and it's probably going to go on for a while do you think that we'll see the Chinese government step in and bail out Real Estate Investors well they say they won't they say that they'll let people go bankrupt which I hope they're right I hope they do be good for China will be good for the world uh they've helped under the not under the table they've helped a couple of people in a small way but it would certainly be good for China if they did not bail people out if they let them go broke you need to clean out the bubble whenever you have a bubble you need to clean it out the only way to clean it out is to let people suffer so let's talk about Japan for a second and what's going on uh I was reading an article tonight from Zero Hedge with uh James Grant from the interest rate Observer and he was saying that he thinks that what's happening with the bank of Japan right now and uh Japanese bonds is the greatest risk to the global economy uh you've obviously been trading markets for decades how big of a risk do you think Japan is to the global economy well uh Jim is probably right because you know the Chinese the Japanese have had a declining population for 13 years now and debt going up up up for many years now it's astonishing how much debt they have the Central Bank prints huge amounts of money and says they will print unlimited that's their word unlimited about some money no no Japan is a Japan it's a nightmare not just waiting to happen but in the process of having it I mean I I would suspect the U.S is the worst problem but I mean we're all this the whole world is going to have a problem so you brought up the U.S uh what's your outlook on the US dollar well I own US Dollars uh not because it's a sound currency I own you know the US is the largest debtor nation in world history they owned it because as the turmoil comes continues more and more people will look for a safe haven they think the US dollar is a safe haven or historic reason it's not but people think it is though I own it I suspect it will get overpriced it has been getting overpriced as you know for the past many months I suspect that will get worse when the turmoil gets worse hopefully I'll be smart enough to sell it if it gets overpriced if it could even turn into a bubble hopefully if it does I'm smart enough to sell do you think that inflation is is under control now uh do you do you think that the the fed's going to end up having to print a ton of money again now that they they may have gone a little too aggressive what's your take on on what's happening right now uh with inflation uh when when you're reading the headlines well the the people in the FED in the Central Bank like most central banks have proved yet again they don't know what they're doing you know no the problem is not finished there Supply demand problems that have developed because of the virus and because of the huge money printing they say they're going to stop printing and given some indication is that they have done so but this is not enough to kill us if we have serious inflation this is worse than the 80s of the the 70s inflation was you know and said things that are different out in the US in those days with a creditor Nation now with the largest debtor nation in history many things are different it was a Soviet Union then that's gone it was red China then that's certainly changed so the difference is this time around uh they have done a few things but not nearly enough to solve the problems of the massive unprecedented money printing that's taken place uh I would remind you small cap Steve that in 1980 short-term treasury bills in the U.S were yielding over 21 percent that is not a typo 21 on short-term U.S treasury bills oh yeah the feds raised interest rates a bit here last year but we're nowhere near 21 on treasury bills which is what it took last time so you're talking about how things have changed over the years the question I was thinking about um you've been investing for decades and something I I think about often that I wanted to ask you is how has the internet changed your world as an investor like I think about if you were investing in say 1994 let's say that you uh were investing in the stock market and you were a regular person chances are the way that you would learn about a stock is through a friend who had a hot tip or maybe you had a stock broker and who knows how qualified any of these people actually were today you've got so much information that there's quite frankly information overload when you're trying to learn about maybe some sort of new theme or new trade idea was was the internet for you as an investor a in an advantage or did it sort of take away your Edge as an investor on everybody else the internet has been a miracle but so was the radio so it was telephone so it was you know telegram is that one time where a miracle we've had Miracles before take place in the communication world I mean clipper ships were considered a miracle 150 years ago because they could get mail back and forth to Europe so much faster but in the end see if a hundred people go into a room and we all get the same information at exactly the same moment most of us don't have the right right judgment to make the right decision judgment hasn't changed yes the telegram changed a lot of things the railroad changed a lot of things but nobody has yet come up with a way to teach us all judgment if you can solve that problem who cares about the internet all we need is small cap Steve's judgment so I I assume that you've been watching everything that's been happening uh in the crypto markets everything's sort of been blowing up all all the rampant fraud that's going on this can you remember any time in your investing career where there was anything like like the.com bubble we we heard about a whole bunch of companies that Bankers knew were fake companies that they were still shoving down their clients throats um uh is is there any time that reminds you of right now with what you're seeing in crypto they we have had bubbles gone we've had fast money guys for centuries um what's his name Mark Twain Mark Twain of said that the definition of a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing at the top but Mr Twain lost a lot of money to a con man in the gold business and Mark Twain was long before the internet long before anything else I can remember the 90s I'm sorry in the 60s at the end of the 1960s we were having a huge computer bubble a huge computer boom it was a laundry which changed this name to Joe's computer or something ooh I forget exactly what it was anyway put computer in the name the stock went through the roof basically with the laundry uh but it had the name computer in it so it went up I mean the same happened in the.com bubble I mean this this has all happened but Steve this is not my first rodeo I've seen this movie I Know How It Ends and it this Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is another part of the same game human beings love to make fast money when other human beings love to teach them how to make fast money and make some of it for themselves now I mean I I have never bought nor a sold I wish I'd shorted well I wish I'd bought Bitcoin at a dollar I didn't wish I'd bought IBM in 1914 also I wish a lot of things but now I don't have any positions I my view they're all going to disappear um well sorry there's going to be computer money with nearly all governments are working on computer money now but it's going to be government computer money it's not going to be your computer money but but when you look back at Bitcoin right you you you could have bought it a hundred a thousand dollars in and sold it at sixty thousand of course but when you look at it even in hindsight do you think there's anything wrong with your process or or do you think that knowing what you knew at the time that was the right decision to not buy Bitcoin when it was a thousand dollars a coin well as I said I wish I bought IBM and I'd change Fortune I wish I did a lot of things you know but I didn't and I have never regretted not buying into a bubble uh I've shorted bubbles in my day out certainly I regret not having I regret having not bought Bitcoin at her dollar and watched you go to sixty thousand yes of course I regret not having done that but I would I could do it if I had it all to do over again I hope I would not because it was a bubble then and it's still a bubble why would I want to get involved unless I would really totally on top of things uh-huh what's what's your top trade idea right now or is is it because somebody asked me that last week and I didn't have an answer for them is the the US dollar what's the best performing ad set in in 2022 so I I don't know what works right now uh what is is is there any sort of uh a commodity or asset class that you look at right now that you're really excited about well I don't have an answer to your question because mainly I'm not doing anything I'm watching um I expect a less a big move in the stock market which would probably be the last big move I hope if it is I hope I'm smart enough to sell it and then short it I guess the only maybe Uzbekistan I bought Sherry that send it Uzbekistan recently extremely good things happening in Uzbekistan in fact I hope to go up there sometime in the next month or two and and invest more I guess it was back uh the newspakistan and maybe agricultural Commodities I don't really see any things right now for me to do well Jim thanks so much for hopping on here and chatting with us it's a real pleasure when uh you take the time uh to come on here and chat with us our audience absolutely loves you so thanks so much for doing this and um I I really appreciate you coming on here and sharing your thoughts well Steve it's been my pleasure uh do you know how to drive a tractor um I've I've driven one in in my youth my father-in-law who I can promise you is watching this right now is laughing hysterically at this question because he knows that I've never driven his but I would suggest looking for great opportunities that you learn to drive a tractor of the agriculture has been a disaster for a long time for most for many people and that is changing so agriculture is going to be a very good place in the next few years so learn to drive a tractor some some some great advice Jim really appreciate it thanks so much for hopping on here I apply you thank you Steve bye-bye let's do it again sometime thank you bye-bye thanks all right everybody thank you so much for watching and if you could do me a big favor please hit the like button subscribe and ring that notification Bell so we keep making more of this content for y'all
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