저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 인플레이션 대응은 실패하고 있으며 금리 인상을 더 강하게 해야 하고 물가 문제는 오히려 악화되고 있다. 강한 고용지표가 증시 하락·달러 강세를 불렀다는 시장 해석을 소개하며, 고용을 줄여 인플레를 잡는다는 생각을 비판한다. 실업 증가는 생산성 감소와 실업수당·복지 지출로 공급은 줄고 수요는 남아 물가를 올린다고 주장한다. 연준이 할 일은 고용을 유지하면서 소비를 줄이고 저축을 늘리게 하는 것이라고 본다. 금리 인상은 소비를 억제하고 저축을 늘려 투자와 생산 확대로 이어져야 하는데, 현재 신용카드 부채는 사상 최고, 저축률은 사상 최저라 미국인 행동이 바뀌지 않았다고 지적한다. 따라서 연준은 금리를 훨씬 더 올려야 한다고 주장한다. 원자재 가격의 일시적 하락을 인플레 종식으로 보는 것은 잘못이며, 이는 다음 상승 전의 조정일 뿐이라고 본다. 주택 가격 하락에 대해서도 낙관하지 않는다. 주택 가격은 더 떨어질 여지가 크지만, 월 상환액·세금·보험·공과금·유지비가 모두 올라 주거 비용 인플레는 악화되고 있다고 말한다. 전망: 금리는 더 올라야 하며 인플레이션 문제는 심화될 것이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
now that so-called strong jobs report actually sent the stock market aching and the dollar soaring because it was perceived as being a catalyst for the FED to be more aggressive in its fight against inflation because after all so many people think the way you win a war against inflation is by putting people out of work and with more people getting jobs the FED is moving backwards and is further away from its goal so it has to fight harder to destroy those jobs but in reality you don't reduce inflation by putting people out of work in fact you accomplished the opposite because when people aren't working they're not productive so you have less Supply and they still have demand because they get unemployment benefits and welfare and food stamps and things like that so you get less Supply you still have demand and therefore you have Rising prices what the FED really needs to do is to keep people employed we need more people being more more productive but what those employed people have to do is reduce their spending so we don't want them to stop working they got to keep working they got to make stuff they just got to not spend everything they earn they got to take some of that money and save it that's how you reduce inflation with higher interest rates is that you discourage people from spending and so you reduce demand and you encourage them to save and that helps increase Supply because the savings lead to investment which increases Supply you don't just try to put people out of work now the reason people are losing jobs is because Rising interest rates are impacting the economy because it's so levered up and consumers are so levered up when interest rates go up that immediately diminishes their capacity to spend because now they're spending more on interest but the problem is credit card debt is still at record highs savings are at record lows so despite the fact that the FED has increased interest rates it hasn't changed the behavior of Americans they're still borrowing and spending like there's no tomorrow and they're not saving anything for tomorrow that's why the FED is really making no Headway in its feign fight against inflation it needs to raise interest rates up far more than it has not to put people out of work but to get people who are working to reduce their spending and increase their savings but because all these jobs are a function of the bubble people are losing jobs as a result of it except they're not unemployed they're losing good jobs and they're replacing them with crappy jobs and I will get to that in a minute the point I'm making here is you don't raise interest rates to create unemployment or slow the economy you raise interest rates to slow spending and increase savings which actually leads to Greater economic growth as the savings of those who were under consuming gets invested to expand plant equipment and leads to Greater production of goods which leads to lower prices of those goods and the fact that fewer people are spending reduces demand in the present for those goods that's what needs to be done but none of that is happening yet so we know the FED is losing its battle against inflation now some people think it's winning because they've looked at a temporary decline in commodity prices and they think that means the worst is over no that is a transitory decline we are just consolidating for the next leg up in commodity prices and some people are looking at housing prices yes they're going down in fact they have a long way to fall but that does not mean inflation is coming down because people don't buy houses they buy monthly payments and those are going up and it's not just mortgage payments that are going up it's taxes it's insurance it's utilities its maintenance everything about home ownership is getting a lot more expensive so the inflation problem is getting worse
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