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there's a gap between advanced economies and emerging markets advanced economies I would say well below 50 we've the eurozone somewhere in the teens emerging markets certainly above 50 but also if fragility you know if you look at advanced economies Japan had a quadruple deep recession and lastly that almost on the verge of a quintuple deep recession that's why they've done massive unprecedented monetary and fiscal easing I was recently in London where they debated whether they're gonna have a triple dip recession or not in the eurozone there is no debate about a triple dip recession because they're still stuck into their deep double-dip recession and I was spreading from the periphery to France in the core of the eurozone and even the United States we have really extremely mediocre economic growth and with this fiscal drag of 2% of GDP we'll be lucky if this year we have a one and a half to 1.6 percent growth now on emerging markets I think especially the bricks have been a bit overhyped used to grow eight to ten percent a few years ago Chinese growth has gone up from ten towards seven or just in India last week wrote now five percent from nine Russia with this all prices growing barely three and a half percent Brazil has heeled less than three percent Mexico three percent and the last member of the BRICS South Africa's a bit of a disaster so even in emerging market I think there is actually significant so that we wrote and there is a gap between the real economy in financial markets right the real economy is are weak but financial markets going higher why it's still a wall of liquidity more easing by the BOJ by the fed by the SMB but they do e soon enough even the ECB so the market seems to be under pricing these risks but just because there is this wall of liquidity but there's this gap between Main Street and Wall Street well you know I do agree on the story that the emerging market gonna be a larger share of the global economy the growing this year 5% close to potential and that's good news advanced economies on average barely 1% and that said that supposes could be long-term trend I was just pointing out that the BRICS within emerging market specifically all of them are moving away from market-oriented reforms to variants of state capitalism not just China and Russia but even other ones things like state-owned enterprises are all in becoming bigger the role of state-owned banks in resource allocation and savings to investments import substitution industrialization resource nationalism and those things are slowing down potential growth of this country so it's not just a slicker quickly a slowdown in emerging markets which countries in particular is that is that emerging as a big problem well you see it in China you see it in Russia you see it in India SID you know in Brazil you see it in South Africa all of the BRICS so I think the bricks have been overhyped and among emerging market I would say in Asia I would prefer other than China in India places like Malaysia or Philippines Indonesia or if we're talking about Latin America rather than Brazil think Chile Uruguay Colombia Peru our greatest success stories are smaller country but greater success stories or you know in Central Europe or Eastern Europe rather than Russia I would say Turkey maybe Czech Republic maybe Azerbaijan maybe Kazakhstan in sub-saharan Africa ting the better store is not South Africa but places like Botswana Mozambique Angola or in East Africa Tanzania Uganda Rwanda or in West Africa Ghana the bone or or Nigeria so I'm just saying even within emerging markets will lump them all together but I think the bricks have been overhyped there are significant problems other countries probably smaller are better stories over time well of all the tail risk I think still the euro zone you know is the biggest one and as I said is austerity fatigue in the core in Balad fatigue so in the periphery umbrella fatigue in the core and right now actually my fear is that the recession is spreading to the core to France for example even German is slowing down a finland without Nokia what is it you know in Belgium in either you have financial problems try and hide that ratio so people talk about the core but maybe German is the only piece of the cord is doing relatively well so I still worry about the future of the eurozone the risk of the other left is orderly defaults eventually some country exit if it's small Greece or Cyprus you can handle it but if the problems of Italy Spain becomes such that you have to restructure their debt and/or exit in the next 3-5 years that's the end of the eurozone will have global consequences so that's the biggest tail risk out
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