저자: DanShathole—진행자미상·사회자제외 · 외국인
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결론: 2018년 1월 CNBC 방송에서 Dan Shathole은 2018년 말 비트코인 3만 달러 도달 가능성을 언급했으나, 이전 예측치를 하향 조정했다고 밝힘. [제이미 다이먼 발언 논의] 제이미 다이먼(JP모건 CEO)은 다보스에서 비트코인에 대한 회의론을 재확인했으나 이는 가격 방향 예측이 아니라 '이 주제에 대해 말할 입장이 아니다'라는 취지로 해석됨. 패널들은 다이먼이 비트코인을 역발상 지표로 보기 어렵다는 데 대체로 동의. [비트코인 가격 흐름] 진행자는 9월 이후 비트코인이 약 158% 상승했으나 12월 고점에서 하락했다고 설명. 다만 해당 발언 시점 이후 가격이 1만5천달러에서 2만달러 수준으로 움직였다는 언급이 있음. [Shathole 전망] 비트코인 전망치를 하향 조정했으며 주된 이유는 최근 조정(pullback). 2018년 비트코인 가격의 실질적 동력은 라이트닝 네트워크가 될 것이라고 주장. 현재는 수수료가 높아 상거래에 비트코인을 쓰기 어렵다고 지적. 라이트닝 네트워크가 수수료를 낮추면 새로운 사용자층 유입이 가능하다고 봄. [기술 설명] 라이트닝 네트워크는 체인 밖(off-chain)에서 당사자 간 거래를 처리하고, 분쟁 시 블록체인을 결제 계층으로 사용하는 구조로 설명. [이더리움 관련] 이더리움은 비트코인보다 거래 속도가 빠르나 사용량이 늘면 같은 병목에 부딪힐 수 있다고 언급. 패널은 이더리움의 강점을 스마트 계약 및 분산형 앱 구축에 있다고 평가. [종목·자산 언급] 블록체인 관련 은행 투자 언급(씨티그룹 등)이 있었으나 구체적 종목 방향성 발언은 없음. [리스크] 비트코인의 약세론: 교환 수단이 아닌 가치 저장 수단으로만 쓰인다는 점. 네트워크 혼잡과 확장성 문제가 지속적 과제로 제시됨. [출연자 전망] Shathole: 비트코인 2018년 말 3만달러 가능성(단기~중기). 패널: 중립~조건부 관심.
다듬은 글
we had a conversation in the fall about Bitcoin you've switched your view a little bit on this I think you all said enough I'm not anymore guys popping this whole thing you talk about it too much you should stop talking about and go back to something relevant it's not my interest I don't want to be spokesman for or against not on this show that was of course Jamie Dimon on squawk Fox this morning in Davos where he doubled down on his skepticism of Bitcoin but as you know the JPMorgan CEO has really missed the mark on where the cryptocurrency will trade since Simon famously called Bitcoin of fraud back in September soared about a hundred and fifty-eight percent despite falling from its highs in December what's more bitcoins actually bounce today even after were diamonds words from this morning so is Jamie Dimon the contrarian crypto indicator Dan I don't think so I mean I think I like what he said this morning he's basically saying hey listen you know there's some people at my firm are looking at blockchain there's some people at my firm we're probably very interested in the notion of crypto currencies but I'm not gonna talk about it and most of the major banks aren't really talking about it did you see what Lloyd Blankfein said he wouldn't answer the questions either about building a trading arm so I don't think Jamie is a contrarian you know call here well he didn't he I think he was saying he didn't ask to be the spokesman for or against that's a fair comment unfortunately Jamie Dimon is a guy we all listen to and and and clearly I think people are gonna extend his words in places that maybe he becomes one by default it's the thing is that he came at it so adamantly so many things to this box right cuz he went all the way to the extreme against it and I think what I'm taking away from this is not necessarily a pro or con he's just saying we spend too much time on it is what he's saying essentially right he thinks her other areas of the market that we should be looking at whether that's the dollar whether it's something in the earnings right now whatever but he is definitely pushing go ahead no I think Pete's right and he called it a front I don't think he was talking I can't get inside mystery I said but I'll play the game I don't think he was necessarily talking about where the price was going now if he made the same comments by the way when Bitcoin was trading north of 15,000 traded two days later it's 20,000 now it's currently we'd be saying what a genius he was in terms of his anticipation of said moves so other than the fact that his call was happened when it was a $6,000 item instead of a 15 so here's what I would say is here's a guy who runs one of the biggest banks in the world and he sees this new technology blockchain technology is something that could massively disintermediate many different businesses that he has he also sees it as a massive drain on talent okay some of the smartest tech minds financial minds and stuff are focused on this and they're not going to work its banks and that sort of things so to me I think he's thinking about this in the rearview mirror saying you know what there's nothing here other than risk for me right now and that's probably why it's coming out the way it is because I don't think either one of these interviews you know come across particularly well I don't think he looks bad by any means but he's just saying this is not my deal we're not focused on it we're doing what we do so you know go have at it more deals well Jamie we hope you're listening closely we know that you do watch our show sometimes because our next guest says Bitcoin could hit 30 thousand dollars by the end of the year dan share Thole is a blockchain analyst from bespoke investment group he joins us now to tell us what could drive the next Bitcoin boom Dan great to have you with us you actually lowered your Bitcoin forecast mainly because of the pullback but you say that it's lightning that is going to be the real driver value can you explain so I think that the Lightning network could really be huge for Bitcoin in 2018 because what I'm not seeing now is commerce involving bitcoins so no one's actually selling goods or services for Bitcoin in a way that's profitable to them because those transaction fees are just so high so with lightning Network you'd see a big reduction in transaction fees and I think that would bring in the next wave of people to the Bitcoin ecosystem and so this will impact Bitcoin more so than other cryptocurrencies that are also trying to speed up I mean some of them already have faster transaction speeds so there are differences of course among all the cryptocurrencies but the impact of lightning Network will be limited to I believe bitcoin and litecoin there may be other ones that I'm leaving out but those are just the ones I'm aware of off the top of my head there are also you know aetherium has a bit faster transactions than Bitcoin but it still could run into the same issue if it gets the same usage that Bitcoin does so in Dan before we get farther into this conversation can you explain in real simple layman's terms what the Lightning Network is and does so the Lightning Network essentially facilitates agreements between people to transact off chain so you're kind of trusting so Bitcoin was made to kind of be this trustless network but with lightning you are trusting that other person but if there is a dispute you can take that to the blockchain as kind of a settlement layer dan is there a publicly traded bank or financial institution that the folks at home have heard of for example a city or JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley that has separated themselves in terms of integrating or the potential integration of blockchain going forward so that's not really my area of expertise you'd have to ask Paul Hickey about that one all right we will do that Dan we're gonna leave it there thanks for your time thank you too and show totally of bespoke all right Citibank is in the black ETF yeah alleged to be finding those company investments of its peers into blockchain so what I think one of the is the bear cases with Bitcoin is that it's called the crypto currency but yeah it's not yes it's not used to transact and so you know people are thinking about it as a store of value so what they're talking about with the Lightning Network it's actually making it more usable and it's gonna actually create larger Network effects and more users is going to make it more valuable that sort of thing and so if you like Bitcoin for lightning then you like aetherium because of what they are doing with smart contracts there so he does bring up the point about speeds transaction speeds and that's something that these networks are gonna be have to upgrade all the time so to me ya keep a check you know for you guys out there maybe that wasn't enough on lightning go read about it because that is a major part of the Bitcoin bull case yeah but for aetherium for the use of aetherium in terms of transactions and such this lightning network could actually make those faster as well oh I think that's not as critical unless you're actually making payments well it isn't I mean so the etherium bull case is very different it's about basically building apps for the decentralized web all intensive purposes so to me like you know way I think about buying these two and again I'm a speculator I'm not BK I'm not one of these experts but that's those are the use cases that I want to be focused on these crypto assets because to me that's what's interesting from a technology standpoint well it's just interesting to hear that congestion on the networks is certainly something that all these guys need to overcome and and aetherium at least seems as if they have a technology solution in the short-run and that's one of the reasons why it has become the most popular place for developers still I had deal chatter heating up in the media space with Lionsgate at the helm but as anyone actually approached the media giant for a takeover why is gate vice-chairman Michael Byrnes will be here to separate fact from fiction plus Tim see we're stepping up to the plate to pitch one smoking hot hot sauce says hit by than higher but can you convince the other traders to take a hit and if you're counting at home that's three cheesy fungible Indies we're back right after this
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