저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 고점 대비 조정 속에서 소형 알트코인에서 대형 플랫폼 토큰으로의 '대전환(rotation)'이 올 것이라는 주장. 시장 현황: 비트코인은 12월 고점 2만달러 대비 약 37% 하락. 반면 시총 30억달러 미만 소형 알트코인은 상승, 리플(XRP)은 약 600%, 스텔라 약 130%, NEO 약 97%, 리플 코인 약 80% 상승. 이더리움은 최고가 부근 회복. 로테이션 근거: Tom Lee는 과거 4년간 소형 알트코인이 300% 이상 급등할 때가 고점 신호였다고 설명. 올해 1월 중순 소형 토큰의 78%가 3개월 내 300% 이상 상승해 정점 신호가 나왔다고 주장하며, 이후 상위 10개 토큰으로 자금이 이동해 대형주가 오를 것으로 전망. 대형 토큰 기준: 2017년 이전 출시, 확립된 팀과 로드맵, 기반 지지층을 가진 토큰. 이를 묶은 FS Crypto FX10 지수 언급. 스텔라 관련: IBM 하이퍼레저와 협력, 리플이 은행을 겨냥한다면 스텔라는 공급망·소매 결제 시장 공략 가능. 시장 규모는 공급망 코인 대상이 디지털 금(시총 약 7조달러)보다 크고, 글로벌 M1(약 100조달러)까지 잠재 시장으로 제시. 비트코인 목표: 2018년 말까지 최소 25,000달러(현재 대비 2배 이상). 근거는 채굴 보상·거래 수수료 등 가상 수익과 공급 희소성, 현금흐름이 없어도 대형 기술주처럼 프레젠트 밸류로 평가 가능하다는 논리. 리스크/한계: 소형 코인 상승은 펀더멘털보다 저가 코인 선호, 액면분할식 심리에 기인한다는 반론 제시. 사회자 BK는 NEO·EOS를 비트코인 대비 시총 비교로 밸류 논쟁 제기. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 비트코인·자산군 전체에 강세, 2018년 말 25,000달러 전망 유지.
다듬은 글
welcome back to fast money while you were watching Bitcoin an almost 600% stealth rally was happening in another crypto commodity our SEMA Modi has those details back at HQ SEMA Brian that is right Bitcoin hit a high to $20,000 near December 18th of 2017 since then Bitcoin has lost about 37% of its value but not all cryptocurrencies have performed poorly during that same time period smaller altcoins that have a market cap of Less Than 3 billion doll have outperformed the standout Ray blocks a cryptocurrency which point which promises nearly instantaneous transaction speed is up about 600% larger cryptos with market caps of over 10 billion have also done well Stellar a global money transfer system with realtime settlement it's up 130% Neo a platform which utilizes smart contracts like ethereum has posted gains of 97% while Ripple's cryptocurrency xrp is up about 80% ethereum by the way has also been staging a rebound currently trading close to its all-time high experts say this move highlights a broader rotation into other cryptocurrencies a strategy used by mainstream traders who missed out on the Bitcoin rally and are now looking to find the next Bitcoin by investing in newer coins that offer similar or even more complex functionality than Bitcoin Brian all right sea thank you very much all right so BK you own Stellar what's your I own Stellar yeah I I and I still love Stellar I mean what what you see happening is when Bitcoin starts to go down or weaken a bit people start to rotate out into these other coins so you look at stellar and Neo one that I own and EOS uh another one that I own those are your bigger platform plays that are being built on people are building on top of it so people are there is a bit of dispersion going on you don't necessarily have to just look at Bitcoin and go oh things are falling apart there's a lot more going on in this market than just meets the eye Stellar neoo sounds like the Saturn car lineup more though uh detail into why you know why relative value what is this what is this trade out of a Bitcoin into a stellar what what does stellar do what is Stell is very similar to Ripple in that it's a global settlement currency they have a deal uh with IBM to work with IBM's internal blockchain called hyperledger so potentially you know if you look at at Ripple which is going after the banks Stellar might be something that goes after retailer goes after the supply chain and it becomes the settlement currency globally so if I look at the total addressable Market of supply chain coin it's much bigger than something maybe that bitcoin's going after you know bitcoin's uh going after gold digital gold7 trillion market cap or potential Market there if Ripple oor Stellar goes after global M1 that's 100 trillion dollar market so there is a bigger market for these guys to go after than the digital gold that bitcoin's going after okay your next guest says though this may just be the beginning of what he calls the great crypto rotation let's bring in fun strats Tom Lee who is joining us from Phoenix Arizona Tom what do you mean by that the great crypto rotation from what to what uh well you know we think 2018 is going to be a story about rotation um but the rotation we're referring to is between the smaller altcoins and the large platform tokens that you guys were just talking about um one of the signals that we've seen is in if you look at each of the last four years whenever altcoins the smaller ones rally more than 300% and in January mid January 78% of small cap tokens rallied at least 300% in the past 3 months that generally marks a peak and then we start to see a rotation into large cap quality tokens and you know there's fundamental reasons supporting that so we think we're starting to see this move into sort of the top 10 tokens and that should actually help large caps rally okay Define a large cap quality token because I I mean at this point in the game Tom it's so early we're not talking about a 50-year-old Blue Chip company even the oldest token is maybe a couple years if not a couple of months old well that's yeah um that's one of the interesting things right is that uh you know the oldest token is is you know eight years old um but there have been a lot of Cycles so I you know to us large cap tokens are ones that were pre 2017 and have you know established team uh you know actually you know a road map that they've been following and and you know a sort of a a built-in support base so you know it there are very few large you know multi-billion dollar tokens um that have been around pre 2017 so those are the ones that we think are the large and we we we amalgamate these into the fs crypto fx10 index hey Tom it's BK so I'm curious what what you're seeing here is you know I talked a little bit about Bitcoin being digital gold these other platform tokens relative value-wise let's take Neo or perhaps EO I think is one that you meant you know they're much lower market cap than Bitcoin when you look at this valuation wise relative value does that mean something like an EOS should equal the the the market cap of Bitcoin well there's just a lot more potential right Brian I mean in some ways like if I if we look at Neo in its development it looks a lot like ethereum did at the at the start of 2017 so um you know there there's a lot of potential for uh Neo the NEOS and the you know even eos's to to do quite well so I I actually think the the easiest uh use case for cryptocurrencies actually is store value today which is is Bitcoin but I think the financial corridors are are obviously very obvious use cases and I think that's what these these tokens are addressing you have a price Target on on bitcoin Tomley yes um we think it's going to reach at least 25,000 by the end of 2018 so it's more than a double from here how do you get to that because you don't have earnings to model off of right it's just pure Supply demand and scarcity well you know you have virtual earnings on cryptocurrencies because there are uh rewards paid to Miners and then there's uh you know transaction fees um one of the things that you know cryptocurrencies don't have is they don't have cash flow and I think that's really what's tripping up a lot of investors but if you look at the vast majority of large cap tech stocks they're not Distributing that cash flow to shareholders and in the same way the blockchain is owned by everyone who owns the coins if you had accumulated all the Bitcoin that's out there you actually own the blockchain so it's it's not that different it's you know it is a present value basis Tom Lee very bullish 25 Grand Tom thank you very much enjoy Phoenix nice and warm quickly what do you think listen I'm bullish on the entire asset class you love you love that still wall of money coming at this place even if you don't believe in the tech believe that there's a ton of money coming in to buy a limited Supply isn't that the rotation I I know we're not we don't have a lot of time here but I mean you know the rotation into smaller cap coins is it really fundamentals or is it really guys rolling down to cheaper assets because they think they're going to go higher there there is so there's two things there is one element of people saying what's the cheapest coin I can buy because I want to buy a lot that's a crazy reason to buy it and there's also some valuation people do it with stocks too they split the stock stock goes up it's the same stock just cut in half all right sticking with the coin will Bitcoin boost Tech earnings one Wall Street analyst says that the crypto craze could create a boon for one name that is reporting this week we'll get details plus Grasso making his
Comments 0