저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 글로벌 경제 둔화가 빨라지고 있어 나스닥 반등은 일시적일 수 있으며, S&P500은 36~35선 재하락 가능성이 크다는 비관적 전망. 시장 상황: 최근 나스닥 5% 이상 상승은 금리 하락에 따른 안도 랠리(relief rally)와 저금리 효과가 주도. 향후 며칠, 특히 나스닥 관련 스냅 실적이 중요. 스냅 실적 분석: 사용자 수는 크게 늘었지만 매출은 정체. 사업 내 수익 창출이 예전만 못하다는 신호이며, 플랫폼 자체 변경 영향과 광고 시장 전반 둔화가 섞여 있다고 봄. 기업 광고(enterprise advertising) 둔화 여부가 관련 종목 전반에 영향을 줄 수 있음. 거시 경제: 유럽 PMI가 매우 부진했고, 중앙은행의 금리 인상과 양적긴축(QT)이 둔화하는 경제와 맞물려 정책 실수 위험이 커짐. 미국 인플레이션은 향후 3~4개월 내 정점 통과 가능성이 있으나, 물가 하락이 성장 둔화(침체 가능성)를 동반하는 것은 좋지 않은 신호. S&P500 전망: 다음 10% 움직임은 상승(4300~4400 부근)보다 하락 가능성이 더 높다고 봄. 대부분 전문가(약 90%)가 35~36 범위로의 하락을 예상한다는 데 동의. 금리 리스크는 반영됐지만 경기침체와 신용 리스크는 아직 주가에 반영되지 않았다고 판단. 연준이 너무 늦어 브레이크를 밟을 수밖에 없고, 이는 기업 실적 압박으로 이어질 것이라고 봄. 비트코인: 최근 금융 여건 완화로 2만 3천 달러대까지 상승. 암호화폐 겨울(crypto winter)의 충격이 흡수되고 과잉이 정리되어 이후 더 나은 기반 위에 있다는 해석. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기적으로 나스닥·S&P500 하락 압력 우위, 비트코인은 반등 국면으로 평가.
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it's been a heck of a week to watch and even though there are all these bad news headlines that are out there the markets are doing really well nasdaq up by more than five percent is this a turning point is this a head fake is it just because there's so many people who are out on vacation right now what do you think well first you're having a great time so thank you for making us laugh it's good on a friday morning to laugh like this um look i think it's a combination of a relief rally and lower yields that's what has been driving it but the next few days especially for the nasdaq and on the back of the snap results are going to be absolutely critical so the next few days are going to be very important determining what happens next what do you think of the snap news is that indicative of much more than just issues at snap oh yeah because the user base increased significantly and yet their revenues were flat so it suggests that there's something going on in the business that is not generating revenues like it used to and the questions oh go ahead go ahead i mean i think what you just we're about to say i think the question that all of us have is are we seeing a significant softening in enterprise advertising because if we are then that's going to impact the other names in that space that's what i was wondering if they're if they are citing increased competition who's who's the increased competition they they also talked about some of these changes they made on their own platform that's trying to figure out how much of this is self-inflicted how much of this is the broader advertising market what's your gut so i think it's broader i mean we're going to get the pmi data today the pmi data that came out this morning in europe was awful um there are there are signs that the global economy is slowing in a rapid fashion and central banks are hiking and doing qt into the slowing um economy and that just heightens the policy mistake that we're in the middle of with respect to central banks is it going to be effective in terms of its intended goals for the these rate hikes going after inflation you think it'll slow down yeah i think inflation has peaked in the u.s um at least for the next three to four months we've got to see how sticky some elements are but the problem is not that inflation's going to come down i mean that's a really good thing the problem is that inflation's going to come down with growth probably going into recession and that's not good news hey muhammad the uh the next 10 in the s p and and no one should ever answer a question like this but the probability that the next 10 percent takes us up to it's at 39.98 so it would take us up to over 4300 400 or so on the s p that possibility from here versus going back to the june 16th low of 36.39 what is more likely in your view as far as the next 10 because i can just tell you i mean the consensus i'd say 90 of the people we talked to say the next move is going to be down to the 35 36 range and i just get uncomfortable even though the vix hasn't hit those extreme levels it makes me uncomfortable that that all the experts say we need to go back down and maybe make new lows so so joe you've got to define a time period here are we talking about the next couple of months are we talking by by the end of the year then infinity what is the what do we hit first 4400 or 3 600 you don't need a time on that i don't care when it is just what's next do we do okay where would we be um i agree with the 90 that you've cited look we have played out interest rate risk we haven't yet played out recession or credit risk and that's going to impact equities do you ever get bullish during the finance or during the during the pandemic you never did get we were already all the way back almost too long stay too long go back to cnbc in april and you'll see that that statement was incorrect joe i i was there i got so much twitter hate mail from challenging you on those things i can go back and find it bahamut but go ahead so at this point you're saying that you're you're in the 90 uh that says that we go back to 3600 first i am because i'm seeing the economy slow and i think the fed has no choice but to hit the brakes because it is so late and the consequences of that is going to be pressure on earnings hey mohammed what do you mean we've you know we always have these crypto conversations we've seen crypto actually move higher recently i don't know if you think that's a reflection also of the just the market that's moved back and forth here we're up now over 23 20 basically 2300 20 23 500 basically uh what do you think that says if it says anything it says two things one i think it is moving with what has been a relaxation in financial conditions over the last two weeks and that's helped crypto but it's saying something else is that a lot of people think that the second or third depending on how you count crypto winter is now behind us that the damage has been absorbed that there's been a flushing out if you like of excesses and now we have a better base to go forward
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