저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 부정적 뉴스에도 반등했으며, 과거 위기 사례를 보면 공포 매도가 오히려 매수 기회였다는 낙관적 입장. 시장 반등 배경: 다우 +754포인트, S&P500 +2.76%, 나스닥 +3.11%로 마감. 인플레이션, 연준, 우크라이나, 실적 우려 등 부정적 뉴스에도 상승. 부정적 뉴스 무시에 대한 견해: 인플레이션, 연준 긴축 지연, 러시아, 중국 봉쇄 등은 이미 알려진 내용으로 시장이 반복 반영했으며, 금융위기와 달리 체계적 위기가 아니라고 봄. 과거 사례 1 - 1986 체르노빌: 공포로 매도 논의가 있었으나 S&P500은 결국 회복. 방사성 낙진은 미국에 영향이 없었음. 과거 사례 2 - 1987 블랙먼데이: 하루 22.6% 폭락 후 약 1년 반 내 손실 회복. 당시 현금 보유는 실수였으며 폭락 직후가 매수 기회였다고 회고. 과거 사례 3 - 1989 UAL LBO 실패 미니크래시 및 2011 미국채 신용등급 강등, 유럽 재정위기 등도 결국 과거 사례로 언급. 현재 투자심리: 부정적 의견이 수년래 최고 수준이며, 분노 기반 투자자들이 시장 저점 형성에 기여한다고 주장. 투자자들은 입장을 바꾸는 유연성이 필요하다고 강조. 출연자 입장: 자신은 40년 경력을 바탕으로 개인 견해를 밝히며, 다우 1,000에서 매수했고 현재 31,827에서도 주식은 여전히 매수 가치가 있다고 봄. 시장 바닥이 이미 나왔을 수 있다는 견해. 개별 종목: GE는 문제 있는 사업부(풍력 에너지) 언급으로 신중하며 허니웰(HON)을 항공우주 대안으로 제시. IBM은 1분기 실적 상회에도 주가 급락을 언급. 리스크: 밈주식(GameStop, AMC) 투기 및 가짜 브로커 앱 이용 투자자 이탈 가능성 경고.
다듬은 글
ummer ig America as narcissist when you see the market flying in the face of endless negative articles about inflation about the FED Ukraine prospective earnings shortfalls the Dow gaining 754 points the SCP surgery 2.76 and the NASDAQ probably 3.11 do you think the buyers haven't heard the bad news you think they're in the dark about inflation or the fed's Great Heights somewhere in Ukraine I feel like anyone who's paying attention got used to those stories months ago in the same way Netflix could rally off a number tonight that we would have considered awful to six months ago yet every time I come out with just a little wee bit of optimism I found myself brownly criticized for ignoring all sorts of obvious negatives that will cause the market to crash any day now we're told the Federal Reserve waited too long to tighten and now of course inflation Unstoppable we're told the president's too weak to stop Russia we're told China will drag down the whole global economy with its endless lockdowns hey I don't even dispute that stuff but there's only so much the market can go down on the same stories at the end of the day none of these worries to me are systemic like the financial crisis was and none of them none of them are new it reminds me of when I used to scream at reporters when I started the street.com 25 years ago to stop serving the same warmed over negativity because it just wasn't helping anyone now as I strolled through the Canyons of Wall Street yesterday deep in thought about how the market rolled over in the middle of our first show in the New York Stock Exchange on one story the possibility not definite that Apple might be cutting back on hiring I found myself thinking about other times when the market rolled over only to Rally a few days later when I worked downtown in the old days how about April 26 1986.
you remember that one that was when nuclear reactor number four at Chernobyl blew itself to Kingdom Come Oh we were all paralyzed right down the block at the old Goldman headquarters 85 Broad we talked about selling all sorts of stocks because the radioactive Cloud that had killed hundreds maybe thousands according to the incredibly inaccurate New York Post someone to sell the stock of McDonald's as we figured the European restaurants would be closed for a long time others urged me to find a platelet milk which would be destroyed by wind blown Isotopes finally there were people who just wanted to sell everything because the market would certainly crash once we realized how bad the disaster was but you know what if you go back and look at the 40-year chart of the S P 500 I had to fight it even fine their Chernobyl sell-off you had you had to how about bye bye bye bye bye the nuclear fallout because it never got here frankly they did get to Sweden fast forward to the crash of 1987 a year and a half later well now we're starting to talk about something you think that would be bad right I mean I had the Good Fortune being totally in Cash Flat incredible Financial meltdown October 19th Black Monday a crushing 22.6 decline one day hedge funds closed Brokers shut billions lost end of the world except it wasn't in fact most people don't even remember why we crashed it was something what was about like a strong dollar ruining World Trade oh wait watch out we got that now within a year we made back all of our losses and then some Black Monday and the day after were actually tremendous buying opportunities now my critics back then would still be parked in 40-year CDs yeah that's exactly where they would buy them all right I'll get the hang of this thing there we go how about Friday the 13th of October 1989 Friday the 13th that alone is terrible right a legendary mini crash 1989 a collapse of 6.9 in a couple of points of an eye why did that happen oh so serious such a terrible thing a failed leverage buyout of none other than United Airlines why the heck did that even matter in retrospect it obviously didn't what did you have to do you couldn't even wait you should have bought it in the in the before Market training of that very Monday morning now all these things occurred when I was working downtown on Wall Street in the 80s and I can only imagine how I would have been eaten alive on social media you can just see the scathing tripping cynicism about how crazy anyone would have to be to recommend stocks while nuclear fallout lose a literal cloud of death coming our way over the Atlantic how could I think anything positive after Black Monday how about a failed lbo Heaven's the Betsy but with the hindsight the benefit of hindsight my biggest mistake in each case was that I wasn't bullish enough especially if the crash of 87 I stayed in cash way too long I figured there had to be more to it right the market couldn't possibly go down 22 with no reason wrong it went down 20 with no reason and that's why we came back with such Adventures these are just tales of the 80s when I worked down the block from here forget the horrors the last 20 has to be downgrade of U.S debt September of 2011.
question remember the Cypress the Cypress Canary and the coal mine hey how about the way everyone always says Canary in the coal mine what the heck is that about like wearing like some sort of mining business pending collapse of Monty to passkey the oldest bank on Earth during the European debt crisis hey I got a checking account there still fine we're suing domestic bank failures during the Great Recession can't help you there when I was looking over my Twitter mentions last night because I was just genuinely basking to grow this great place to maybe get a shot up there look how cool it is this is a handheld guy now it's really cool cool outfit there um it's the genuinely kind of constructive comments we had a lot of commanding construct in the comments I mean well there were so many snide belligerent moronic attacks that after a while you know didn't get to me because I'm Philadelphia but I read them here's like a typical one who the heck is Jim Cramer to recommend stocks in this market we didn't have Twitter in the 80s but I had plenty of critics back then when I wrote articles about the market I don't know it seems like yesterday was a good time to be bullish at least after today it's some Bozo said to honestly that wrote to me because he said um he wanted to know where my license was to talk about stocks like it was like a fishing license well here it is yep this time there's a whole group of critics online people would rather be wrong and angry than write lucrative there should be some kind of a stand-in for a Wall Street or a stooge for late stage capitalism two of the hedge fund Elite like I even talked to those guys but at the end of the day I only represent myself I'm trying to teach people how to approach markets using everything I've learned for more than 40 years in the business including what I learned just down the block on a day when we were supposed to sell McDonald's because of Chernobyl yeah that's my only agenda and as a grizzled veteran I wasn't them but I am now I can tell you that the level of negativity about stocks at this moment is the highest it's been in years and years and years now some of that's correct because the markets got real ugly at times but it's also because there's a new class of investors who buy stocks not based on fundamentals but based on anger like to try to win some sort of argument that's the wrong approach these people would rather stick to their guns than try to make money that never ends well many of the haters seem to like only a handful of stocks mostly money losing companies that went out of style months ago or they're sticking with crypto and all the crypto that went down they don't understand that changing your mind is a virtue in this business of course I'm here to teach everyone including my most unconstructive critics it's why I started the investing Club it's why again I give you a 10 20 a.m editorial meeting every morning for club members I know that many people have lost their shirts because of this market and I can't blame them for wanting to take it out on me I'll do my best to put that shirt back on if you watch the 10 20 show it's getting traction by the day frankly now I recognize there's no way to do this job without building up an Ardent anti-fan base of highly motivated critics there's always going to be an army of people eager to say anything Kramer tells you take the other side of the trade by the way now you're on the other side of a plus 754 uh rally in the Dow good luck with that but even if you think I'm an idiot or a fraud or a Charlotte make no mistake you want to bet against me in this market you should understand what side amor I'm on the side of progress see I bought stocks down the block when the Dow was at 1 000.
I bought them down the block what is it two thousand I bought them down the block what is it 3 000. and now I'm up the block it's 31 827 I think they're still worth buying what makes you so confident simple I know it's just a matter of time before the millions of people who started investing via say the uh Brokers that were really just apps masquerading as brokerage houses or even be blown out or lose interest like all the people who bailed yesterday when we learned about the Apple hiring slowdown the ultimate dog bites man story once they capitulate that's all Market bottoms you know what maybe it's already happened maybe after today's pacing they're all gone but if I can do only one thing in this tough environment that makes a real difference I hope I can separate the smart younger investors from the Charlotte's and mount Banks who think the whole game the whole Market is just about two stocks GameStop and AMC to the latter group all I can say is go buy a video game oh go out to the movies but shut the heck up here's the bottom line I want you to make money not lose money even if you hate but for the majority of my haters all I can say is it's not too late to take the other side of the trade even after today's terrific run let's go to Susan in New York Susan hi Jim congratulations on the new set thank you Susan what's going on I'm a big fan um always overwhelmed by the breadth of your knowledge so I was wondering about a very old standard Once Upon a Time this was a Cornerstone of every Diversified portfolio what are your thoughts about General Electric these days okay I think she is a work in progress I'm not that crazy about one of the divisions which is a an energy wind business uh I think that a much better buy frankly if you want Aerospace is Honeywell h-o-n which might trust does okay look I want you to make money not lose money no matter your opinion of me hey old man money tonight Halbert reporter a strong quarter this morning send the stock higher but then it leveled off I'm joining off this I gotta find out what the heck happened here I think it's a buy then the average is we've had at nicely today so is this the runway the Bulls have been waiting for I'm going off the charts with someone who was really right about this rally yeah we're going back to wealth Larry Williams and IBM reported a top and bottom line Beat for the first quarter but the stock got crushed let's find out if that's what should have happened when we talked to I have a question tweet Kramer hashtag madtweek it's something head to madmoney.cnbc.com
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