원문 보기
hey everyone it's Matt with equip predict. comom thanks so much for watching uh in this video we're going to take a dive into uh the analysis and examination of uh the S soxl ETF uh that's a semicond triple leverage semiconductor ETF we're going to be using S soxx as a proxy uh for the analysis of s soxl and you'll kind of talk about why uh and again if you're enjoying some of the content we're providing please do feel free to subscribe to the channel also uh you can H over to our website uh equip predict.
comom we've got a lot information over there regarding Market forecasting uh and we do send it out to our readers an occasional equi predict alert so that's over at the website equip predict. comom uh up on the screen I've just uh tossed up a photo here that uh or I should say image that's been created I saw this somewhere on social media I did did not create this uh image but I thought it was um Apper for uh what happened on Friday um and I thought it was something i' to share with you guys uh kind of think anyone who was a uh sort of in the near perable Camp um if for the stock market and as an active Trader uh certainly felt some of the heat uh in this tail end of this week uh if you were not shorting or in cash so um the I share semiconductor ETF s soxx over the past 5 days your sitting on losses around 11% uh and you can see why you got to be really careful using leverage uh this is uh for S soxl which is the three three times leveraged uh semiconductor ETF you've got uh you're sitting on 30 just over 32% loss over the past uh trading week so um got to be really careful with leverage um that's so just bear that in mind and what we do is we take a look at if you watch some of our other videos uh for example if we you know we're looking at sqqq for example we're using psq the non-leveraged ETF because of slippage all right if you're looking at the two charts you can do this yourself line up the two charts next to each other for S soxl and S soxx you're going to see that there's slippage in s soxl that you're not going to have an S soxx so our our um you know our advice and what we do for ourselves we we we take our cues from The non- Leverage ETFs if we're going to be using leverage uh and just something I'd recommend you you try out yourself um so up on the screen here is actually a weekly chart for S soxx and again we're using it to as a proxy for S soxl um and um you can actually see there's a couple things on the screen here that will will point out um first of all there's a static cycle which is the yellow lines that I've drawn in here on the chart and you can do this yourself this cycle goes back this is a very static cycle to around 26 weeks uh from uh from trough to trough um it goes back I only did it back to 2020 some other folks here might want to do their own examination and and check out the cycle it might even go back further than 2020 uh so we're going on what four years now where this Cycle's been in play um it doesn't work perfectly I mean also we've overlaid here on this blue line for those who are uh who are watching this is our equi predict model that we use uh to give us some guidance as a road map as to when we can expect to see or or we should be on the lookout it's just an indicator just gives us a signal it's not a trigger for entry you just got to remember that um gives us just sort of an indication of when we should be kind of on the on the lookout for some some bearish action up the top of these Peaks and the bullish action bullish action bearish action up here so I hope that kind of makes sense uh as to how that model Works um and if everyone has uh watched some you can watch some other videos we just sent out to our readers over at equ predict uh a few weeks ago to take up a position in McDonald's because the equ predict model and the static cycle model took on um was in alignment and certain enough it has recently just uh taken off so um just you know each indicator that you come across in the web or someone like myself and and our guys who have this model uh it's simply an indicator it's it's not perfect um you can see here that although it gave us sort of this indication to look for bullish action this is during the bare Market of 2022 if we had just obeyed just the static cycle and the equi predict model and gone long maybe on a breakout here okay you go long and all sudden all of a sudden you're sitting on losses but what you're going to see is that you would have come back up for a break even uh at that particular time maybe you know eight or 10 weeks later so um you always have to be careful with whatever indicator you're using um and we just again use the equ predict model as a as a guide and so um going into 2023 it really started to get in lock step um you can see here it just told us to start looking out for some some bullish price action because this is a predictive model this is known well in advance and you'll see this on the next next screen on sort of what it's saying for 2024 uh it told us at this particular point to look for some uh you know some some some some bearish pressure some selling pressure if you will or at least a watch and wait I mean during a bull market the problem with the equ brick model is that during bull markets it doesn't call Tops it calls Bottoms in a spectacular way uh but calling tops uh I think that should because of the way the market is designed the market is designed to go up so continue to uh prices of of various equities can continue to rise even during an predict Peak like this uh but nonetheless uh you can see here that again as you're into 2023 you take on a long position here look for sort of a a bearish um or selling pressure at this point and so on and so forth so uh you can see here though that the static cycle called it uh perfectly the problem again with using static Cycles um is that they are static they don't move uh you know you can see here in 2022 if you had just obeyed just a cycle and said okay well you know going back to 2020 I can see this been working for you know at least two years you take a long position here uh and then again you're sitting on losses but you just have to ride it out and you're going to get out for a break even uh typically if these Cycles work really well so each one of these Cycles again going back have worked out perfectly uh they've all done you've all done very well if you've taken uh your your your cues just from the Cycles alone so we're going to hop to kind of what's Happening Now um and you can actually see here that uh again the model uh the equi predict model uh as well as the static Cycles has worked uh very well um again again not perfect on the equ predict model even the static Cycles uh in this particular case um uh were actually pretty good um you can see here that uh the equ predict model gave us an indication just before we curled into 2024 to go ahead and take up a position uh and this is the again this is what I mean by sometimes difficult to call market tops is that you would have uh likely if you were just obeyed just the equ model alone and and we had just gotten out you probably would have gotten out here and then been kind of frustrated that it took off for the next six weeks however if you just simply are patient and wait for the model's next cycle low you're going to see that it came down nearly perfectly right around here at the same time as a static cycle for a nice profit here so again you have to mind your stops no matter what uh no matter what indicator you use um you know I believe this is a combination of uh some of the economic data that's that's rolling in fed policy as well as some of the machines taking out stops for our next runup um so if we're looking at the model by itself uh what it's telling us is that yeah we may see some some bullish indication a little bit going up into September at this particular point it's it's certainly possible uh but the uh the static cycle Alone um is actually telling us around 1028 uh that week uh we start to see some some bullish price action set in on the marketplace um the equity predict model is a little bit later around I think it's the week of 1111 so um just something you want to bear in mind is that at this particular time it's best to kind of be watching and waiting uh not necessarily using S soxl uh to the long side at this particular point if you want to make a quick trade in and out uh you might get you might get actually a bounce back up until the beginning of September and then another fallof um just one thing to note about the model is that it does not um it not does not provide uh an estimate of magnitude just a matter of it's just an estimate of time so it's tied to the calendar not to the price I hope that that makes sense in what I'm saying there um and so our equ mod is saying essentially uh that last week of October into November is when we can expect to see some uh genuine bullish price action uh set back into the semiconductor space so if you want to take up a position in s soxl um and you want to kind of uh sleep easy at night uh and and and not have to worry so much I'd probably be waiting until uh sometime in uh in October so hope that helps uh Happy trading and good luck
Comments 0