저자: Matt · 외국인
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EquiPredict 모델 기반으로 XLK를 TECL·TQQQ 진입 대용으로 분석. 주간 차트에서 현재 고위험 구간이나 하락을 단정하지 않고, 8월 첫째 주 강세 가능성과 9월 중순 약세 가능성을 제시. 모델 신호로 8월 5일 주 진입 알림을 예고하며, 과거 바닥·고점 적중 사례를 근거로 제시. 성과(상대강도) 사이클과 모멘텀 다이버전스도 참고 지표로 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone it's Matt with equip predict. comom thanks so much for checking this video out uh in this video we're going to be covering your next entries into tqqq tecl and even xlk and again if you're enjoying some of the content uh here on the channel and finding it helpful for you in your in your uh your trading please do subscribe to the channel you can also head over to our website equip predict.
comom uh there's a whole bunch of information over there to help you uh improve your game at technical analysis and also forecast uh the market so it's equip pri.com up on the screen here we've got a weekly chart of xlk we're going to be using it as a standin for tecl to represent tecl and tqqq uh the reason being is that we we use non-leveraged ETFs uh when we're doing our analysis to time our entries into the leveraged ETFs like tecl or tqq uh reason for that is because with the leveraged ETFs you have slippage um you don't get as accurate of a reading um on some of the models as you do with a non- leverage so we're going to be using xlk here uh to make the representation and again this is the weekly chart we're going to go through a whole bunch of different components in this chart so you can better understand why we're formulating this opinion as we are right now what the model is telling us and for our readers over at equip predict.
uh we're going to be sending out uh the week of August 5th um we're going to be sending out an entry alert that week uh when the model tells us to do so to our readers over there over at the website um but nonetheless here's the weekly chart we'll go over each one of these components on the bottom panel we've got the equi predict model overlaid on uh the U hlc bars for xlk again this just as a reminder this is representation of tecl and even tqqq and right now what it's telling us is that as the week ending um the the 12th of July it's we're at a high-risk period it doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to see a drop off we've got sort of a scenario a and a scenario B going into the first uh week of August for xlk 4 tecl 4 tqqq and so we'll kind of run through each one the equ predict model is telling us that we're going to see some strength developing sometime in the uh that first week of August and potentially weakness developing the week of uh of the 16th of September and I'll kind of just for those who are new to the channel kind of go over the model tells us when we can expect some uh some strength some weakness strength weakness so again it doesn't necessarily predict perfectly the exact moment to buy and sell but it does give us a road map uh which is pretty darn uh which we we love and it's pretty darn good in helping us understand when to look at the calendar to pick our entries and when to understand when the risk is high uh it's it's superb at calling the bottoms and it gives us an alert as to when we might anticipate seeing some weakness and to kind of pause and wait uh and so as you can see here like just for example uh it told us that we may start seeing some weakness here between February and March in uh uh in tecl and xlk and sure enough we had a topping pattern and then also told us to start looking sometime around uh early April mid April for another entry again you could have entered into this end of this bar here and rode the strength up here so I hope you understand how the model works again here we are right here at the end of this week is telling us that this is a moment to look and pause could it continue to run and invert with the model it absolutely could uh but right now we're going to be looking at the week of August 5th to take our uh our next entry and we're going to again send out to our readers over equip predict.
uh the alert that week um up on the top panel here we've got um your standard uh this is a performance graph for how xlk and tecl uh and tqq are doing in comparison to the stock market as you can see it's been a great ride um if this line is going up it means that it's outperforming the markets if it's going down it's underperforming the markets so this is your typical rotation from sort of risk on or growth into value growth into value as you go through the year this goes all the way back to I think April of 2023 um and so just with your typical um this is a very static cycle that we've overlaid this is that yellow line here you can see that there's just a pattern a cycle pattern to this and right now we're sort of at that top or near the top on the back end of that cycle does it again mean that the performance of xlk is going to drop off precipitously into uh you know that first weekend of August not necessarily but it does tell us that there is a cycle pattern that does exist and we're we're just observing that we're just taking a close look at that and watching it for the performance because what we want to do is not only enter at the right time uh for xlk but we also want to outperform the markets it's kind of like adding uh afterburners to your stock selection and we do this for a whole bunch of a whole host of stocks as well and we do send those out to our readers over at AC predict um on the um and I've just also outlined sort of a momentum reading that we have overlaid on uh the performance and you can see here with these blue lines and I'll just kind of highlight them it alerts us to uh when we you know when we should again when risk is starting to um uh increase in terms of taking up long positions and when you know when you get sort of this Divergence up here on the top leftand panel with the momentum price continues to climb it tells you that entering right here when the model tells you that there's a high risk of of of weakness uh it tells you to pause and wait for the next entry you don't always get a Divergence it doesn't always happen and we don't have it here for this particular run to the upside as you can see right here okay there's no Divergence yet but going into September 16th uh the week that kind of middle of September um we certainly could see some Divergence in the model um where you do have sort of a peak here uh we do have a nice run potential strength uh um potential run of strength going into September but a Divergence in momentum and a fall off after the 16th that's sort of what the model uh is telling us is a is a possible probability um and so so again I've just highlighted a few green uh green circles here of when your entry is and again we don't have an exact point in in time on the performance model but we do on the price action model that the week of August 5th is when you want to be looking for your next entry for strength in tecl or tqq and then again riding it up to uh an area of potential weakness that would be forming sometime in the mid of September so I hope this helps I hope with your with your trading I hope this helps with your selection of your entry into tecl and T Q uh good luck and good Trading
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