저자: FinanceAfter40채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 인텔(INTC)은 벤저민 그레이엄 공식 기준 보수적 적정가 90달러, 33% 할인 매수가 약 60달러로 현재 44달러는 저평가로 보인다. 분석 방법: 그레이엄 공식을 적용해 TTM EPS 5.11달러, 향후 5년 성장률 7.94%, 회사채 수익률 3.7%를 입력했다. 원래 공식 적정가는 약 148달러로 산출됐으나 공격적이라고 보고, 상수 PE를 8.5에서 7로, 성장률 계수를 2에서 1로 낮춘 보수적 적정가 약 90달러를 채택했다. 매수 기준가는 적정가 90달러의 33% 할인인 약 60달러로 제시됐다. 현재가 44달러 대비 약 100% 상승 여지가 있다는 계산이다. 진행자는 개인적으로 인텔을 싸다고 보며 매수할 것이라고 밝혔다. 대선 종료 후 수일 내 유료 회원(Patreon)에게 롱 포지션 알림을 보내겠다고 했고, 기간은 1년 안팎(콜옵션 행사가 40달러 등)을 언급했다. 이는 단기 복권이 아닌 가치투자 관점의 장기 플레이라고 강조했다. 리스크 측면에서 AMD 등 경쟁 심화로 성장 둔화 가능성을 언급했으나, 이를 보수적 계수 조정에 반영했다고 설명했다. 면책 문구로 본 영상은 금융 자문이 아니며 교육 목적이라고 밝혔다. 이 공식은 2~3년 뒤 주가 방향을 보장하지 않으며 적정가 도달 시점은 5년 뒤일 수도 있다고 덧붙였다. 인텔 실적 발표 이후 하락세에서 약 20% 할인 상태라는 점을 근거로 들었다. 진행자는 향후 다른 종목 분석 요청도 댓글로 받겠다고 했다.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone we are going to check Intel that's what we're doing today we're going to see the fair value price of the Intel stock as well as the price that I will be a long-term holder should I choose to buy Intel and for me I would actually buy Intel because I think it's cheap but it doesn't matter what I think we're going to check according to Benjamin GM the intelligent investor book who was waren Buffet Mentor uh we are going to apply the formula that he did and we're going to see the price of Intel so let's get start so I'm looking at Intel I'm in Yao finance and I'm looking at the one month chart Intel went from around 52 bucks about a month ago and then they posted earning Came Crashing Down to 48 and then came crashing down to 44 meaning about uh 20% discount from a month ago that's pretty good does that mean that the stock is cheap well to the naked eye sure but uh we'll see what we see so we're going to go back to the our Excel and see the formula that needs to happen here we go we got Intel company name that's Intel ticker symbol INTC first thing that we need to fill out is the EPS earning per share in order to do that we're going to go back to ya Finance there we go and back to ya finance and earning per share we have in the homepage of Intel this column right here EPS earning per share and TTM if you guys don't know what it means it means uh trailing 12 months trailing 12 months earning per share we're going to put that number in 5.11 that's the earning per share for Intel 5.11 we're going to put it in the Excel so I put earning pair share 5.11 in the Excel next thing that we have is a constant per PE uh 8.5 that's basically saying according to the book uh no Growth Company will no will not have growth ever not ever but for the next 7 to 10 years so we're just going to put a Conant of 8.5 uh I'm not going to change the formula even though if you read online on many many forums a lot of people saying put 7 put 9 put six all that stuff I'm staying with the basic 8.5 next thing we need to figure out is the growth growth trade and we're going to find that number again in Yao Finance so we're going to go back to that in finance I'm going to scroll and pick the tab right here analysis almost at the end analysis I'm going to click analysis there we go scroll all the way to the down to the bottom yeah I'm looking at this number the one before the end next 5 years growth per annual growth estimation next 5 year one before uh next 5 years one before the end we got a pretty low number 7.94% uh if you remember from uh Activision Blizzard yesterday they had I think it was like 24% or something like that don't really remember go check the video I'll post the link at the end of this one next 5 years growth is 7.94 so we're going to put that number in the Excel yeah so I'm in the Excel I'm going to put 7.94 in the growth trade of Intel yeah and the growth rate is 2 * 794 that's what the formula says that's another Conant we're not going to change anything it's going to stay two and the corporate bond it says to divide everything in 4.4 this was the corporate corporate bone uh level basic level in the year 1962 not going to argue with that some people say no most people say just leave it like that so I'm not going to CH touch that going to stay 4.4 and the next thing we need to find out it's very simple once we find out the corporate bond for Intel we're going to have the fair market value okay and before we do that I also put the stock price today $ 4428 and next thing we need to do is Define the corporate bond yield for Intel so we're going to so I've searched Intel in Google I just put corporate bond Intel I got a few options uh 2.3% 2.5% I'm all I always want to stay super conservative so my price targets will be will have even more cushion and more margin of safety of error so I'm going to pick the highest number and I found this one 3.7 that's uh that's what I see uh the coupon expires July 2025 5 years from now you can buy the bond of intel if you want instead of the stock but that's not our plan in here so I'm going to put 3.7 in our and once I put the number 3.7 in the corporate bond formula I'm actually going to get the price the fair value price of Intel we're not done I'm going to also need to find out the price that I will be a buyer but for now I'm going to get the fair price and see if 44 bucks per Intel is is actually cheap or not cheap to me it's cheap but it doesn't matter what I think we'll see what the numbers say and before I do that guys uh just a reminder first of all I am not a financial advisor this is not a financial advice and educational purposes only but also in the description below uh write uh write some of your comments which uh stock would you like me to do next you like me to check out uh Tesla Apple Amazon whatever you have in your portfolio whatever bags you are holding uh leave a comment and I will do the fair value price of that stock yeah thank you very much so we're going to put the number 3.7 and we're going to get fair value of Intel are you ready let's go yeah 3.7 wow that's pretty crazy stock fair value look at this 148 148 that's pretty pretty crazy that's pretty crazy yes yes it is pretty crazy we going to play with the numbers cuz again a lot of people in the forums online says that gram is pretty aggressive I would love to I would love to have the price of 148 but for this particular example I will go with the formula that is more conservative and we're only going to change uh two numbers we're going to change 8.5 to 7 okay sure we can go with that and say that Intel Fair uh value price is 150 and and now it's 44 and I'm I'm going to go all in tomorrow sure but let's see the more conservative way again as I mentioned this is a the the original formula is super aggressive and you saw Microsoft a couple of days ago that even the super aggressive Microsoft is pretty much fairly valued but I'm not buying them because it's pretty expensive compared to the aggressive value uh let alone the conservative we're going to go with the conservative in this case so we're going to change 8.5 to 7 okay I'm not done and the growth trate instead of two instead of two I'm going to change to one meaning there is no uh double growth and most likely there won't be with AMD and tons of competition going to change this to one and this is the conservative conservative super conservative fair value for Intel let's click enter and see what we see $90 that's uh that's still 100% from here that's the super conservative value so what does that mean are we buying now at 44 maybe we're not done just yet we're going to see here the price that we are buying again this is the super conservative way guys super conservative way Intel fair value should be at 9 $90 I'm very happy with that I'm going to buy in my patreon a couple of lips couple of lips for I don't probably two years from now something like that maybe call 50 or call 40 for 2022 uh go check my patreon in the description 10 bucks a month uh yeah let's keep going so I'm going to put the price we are buying the way we calculated that Benjamin Graham says the fair value price you need to get a 33% discount so we're going to put $90 time 79 look at this $90 that's the fair value conservative fair value price for Intel when nobody knows but according to this formula it's not tomorrow it could be 5 years from now and I'm very okay with the waiting we're going to put 9079 and I'm going to multiply that by 0.67 this will give me a 33% discount on an already uh conservative value and we're going to click enter 60.8 60.
82 60 bucks that's the price that we are buying we were supposed to buy Intel at 60 bucks because the fair value is $90 and the price today is $44 what does that mean price of 44 bucks today the price that I'm supposed to buy is 60 and the price that the stock Intel should be trading conservatively is 90 bucks I'm going to tell you right now that once this election is over probably a couple of days from now I'm going to issue an alert to my patreon members and we're going to go long it's not going to be a long for next week lottery play this is going to be a value play we're probably going to go long I don't know uh call 40 or something like that for the next year who knows but if I bring you guys any sort of value don't forget to subscribe as well as write in the comments which stock would you like me to analyze next I'm very very impressed with Intel 60 bucks is the price that we should buy and now it's 44 uh Benjamin gr would be a buyer Warren Buffett would be a buyer are you a buyer let me know in the comment below thank you very much guys and I will see you next time yeah
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