저자: AbhinavChopra · 외국인
요약 보기
라케시 준준왈라의 인디안호텔 투자 방식(매출성장·EBITDA마진 개선 기반 내재가치 계산)을 분석하고, 같은 논리를 야트라온라인(Yatra Online)에 적용. 여행 수요 증가로 매출 100% 이상 성장, FY25 순이익 흑자 전환, PBR 3.3~3.5배는 동종 대비 낮아 상승여력이 크다고 주장. 단, 본인 학습 내용이며 투자 권유가 아니라고 고지.
다듬은 글
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ji bought a stock in 202. As soon as I found out, I started researching the stock. Even after doing a lot of research, I could not buy that stock. Why? Because he was outside my circle of competence. What is the Circle of Competence? Circle of Competence means did I understand that business well?
Could I extract its intrinsic value? I was able to understand the business. I was also understanding its business model. But I was not able to calculate its intrinsic value. So I left that stock. After 3 years the stock has quadrupled. What was my fault? Let me tell you this interesting story. I just got a call from my friend and he said that he is getting investing tips and they all seem to be working out.
They are fitting perfectly. So I thought, I am an investor and do self-research, why should I look into it. But he said, just look at it once, who knows you might find something valuable in it. As I looked at his stocks, I found one thing common. What was common? Revenue growth was very fast and EBITDA margins were improving along with net profit margins.
The PE multiple of those stocks was also very high. But revenue growth and EBITDA margins were improving. I wondered if I was not involvin' these two parameters in the intrinsic value calculation. Is this what happened to me when I was analyzing Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's stock? I went and looked at Rakesh Unnawala's stock again and saw that his revenue growth was very fast and the revenue margins were improving and the net profit margins were also improving.
I realized my mistake that I had not estimated future growth of revenue and profitability in the intrinsic value calculation. The name of that company is Indian Hotels Limited. Now revenge travel started in 202 because people were stuck at home during the Corona period and after that, people felt that they would go out to travel somehow because there was no certainty about life.
That is why the revenues of the hotel companies were increasing and due to this the EBITDA margins were also increasing. What was left then? I found a formula for an intrinsic value calculation and found out. Today friends, on the same basis, I want to tell you about a stock. Friends, let me tell you that none of this is my recommendation.
This is just my analysis which fits Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's setup on Indian Hotels and I think that perhaps this intrinsic value calculation fits perfectly in this stock as well. The name of the stock is Yaat Online. Coincidentally, this company is also in the hospitality sector. What is happening now is that people are going on trips even by taking loans.
Now travelling has become a part of our life. So you must be aware of a study that 25% of the Indians are going on trips even after taking loans. So what is happening is that the revenues of companies are increasing very rapidly. So if you look at the revenue growth of Yatra Online in the last one year, it is more than 100% and if you look at its EBITDA margin, it has improved a lot.
It has also become net profit positive in FY25. If you look at its PE multiple, it will appear very high. Like I made a mistake in Indian hotels. But if you assume that the revenue growth is so fast and the net profit margin will increase in the coming time, then this company is improving its intrinsic value.
Secondly, you are getting 3.3 3.5 times book value. As revenues grow at a rapid pace, profits will also grow and return on equity will also improve. So the 3.3 times book value that it is getting is not much because if you look at its comparative companies, they are available at 10 times book value and it has hyper growth, so according to my intrinsic value calculation, there is a lot of upside in it right now.
If you look at its stock, it has increased by 100% from the bottom. Now you people will think that it has increased by 100%. How to take it now? I made the same mistake at the time of Indian Hotels. Now Indian Hotels had also increased by 50 to 60%. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ji had also taken it. I was scared.
I said this has increased by 50-60%. What returns will I get? But I was not able to understand how the growth would reflect in the stock price. The same concept applies today at Yatra Online Limited. We can never catch the bottom no matter how big it is from below. We can take a decision only after we get the information.
But the decision should be based on facts, not emotions. Friends, I want to give you a disclaimer that this is just my learning. I don't know whether I will be right or wrong. But before buying a stock, you must consult your financial advisor and also do your own analysis. If you need any help, if you want to know something about your portfolio , then you can comment me in the comment box.
I will share my email ID with you so that you can contact me. I hope you liked the video. You can like and subscribe to my channel. Thank you for watching.
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