저자: 미상 · 외국인
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하워드 막스의 투자 철학을 소개하며 가격 대비 가치(좋은 자산과 좋은 매수는 다르다), 2단계 사고(남들과 다르게 생각하기), 안전마진, 운과 실력의 구분, 장기 생존이 핵심이라고 설명한다. 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 1960~70년대 니프티 50 사례와 고수익 채권 투자 사례를 일반 교훈으로 든다.
다듬은 글
Have you ever intentionally chosen the best thing to do? Following the formula, meticulously analyze every detail. I was confident about the angle, but the result turned out to be a disaster. It's a pose for someone who has chosen the bad path. We survived and gradually grew stronger. We are often taught that success is the pursuit of victory.
The greatest winner chooses the best. Join the most famous company and seize the biggest opportunity. Ultimately, it's the lessons learned from over 78 years of life. Harvard Marks, an American investor. He co-founded an investment management company called Oak 3. Capital points in a different direction the more we try.
The more we chase perfection, the more... They may be walking right into unseen risks. It only goes up because in the real world, what makes it... Many people lose not because they lack analysis. He's talented, but his misplaced confidence led him astray. Paying too much and then making mistakes on simple things...
Without realizing it, let me give you a hypothetical example. Here's the picture: Two people start working at the same time. Outstanding from the first year, receiving praise and landing major projects. Everyone in the monitoring department went up on stage to receive their award. The second-place person has never won first place in any year.
The performance is average to good, nothing spectacular. But nothing major ever fell apart after 10 years. The first person once took on a job that was too risky for him and suffered serious injuries. Once, I resigned to pursue a business I was confident in. It was supposed to be a success, but the business had to close down, leaving behind a huge debt.
The big deal has to start almost from scratch. The second person gradually accumulates saving skills. And the trust from those around you until one day... I'm back in a position that many people didn't expect. This doesn't happen to everyone, and it doesn't always happen to everyone. It means that outstanding people always fail, but...
It happens often enough to make us wonder why people... Staying consistently in the middle ground often leads to surpassing others. What was once at the top has finally happened. What you will gain from this is an understanding that... Why missing the big chance might be more important. Winning big and getting a set of easy questions.
Review your own decisions, starting with... From work and money to the choices we make. Dedicate your life's time to the beginning of the lesson. This goes back to the late 1960s, a time when... Maring started working in the investment world back then. A group of stocks that people in the industry call...
Nifty 50 simply means 50 top picks. A leading American company that people believe in. So good you can't miss it. Names that many people are familiar with, such as IBM, Coca-Cola, and... They were in that group, listening to the beliefs of that era. It makes perfect sense that these companies continue to grow.
Because they have a strong brand and talented management. Buy it and hold it for the long term, don't worry about the price. Because something this good is worth buying at any price. Wrong when many people think the same way about the price. The shares of these companies were also pushed up. It gradually increased to around 80-90 times the profit.
To put it simply, a year means if the company is still doing it... Profits remain the same every year, and buyers have to wait up to 80 days. Or, over 90 years, the accumulated profit would equal the price. Those who paid said that if anyone bought shares in this group... In 1968 Then they held it for about 5 years until 1973, when the money dropped.
Approximately 90% of the capital could be lost. That means... 100,000 baht might only be worth around 10,000. That's the amount of money used to buy a company that the whole country admires. Sneak peeks say it's the best, but what's worth considering is the company. Many companies in this group are not bad.
Many of them went on to become much larger companies over the years. After ten years, the problem is not with the quality. A company's success hinges on the price people are willing to pay. Getting it right here is the first and most important aspect of being good. Buying well is not the same thing as making a good purchase.
"Good" refers to quality, while "good buying" is... Getting that at a reasonable price. When compared to its true value, imagine... Let's say we want to buy a used car, and we have a model... Very popular, in excellent condition, everyone wants it but the owner... They're pricing it higher than a brand new car, even if it's a good car.
No matter how much that lump sum payment is, it's not a A good purchase, in contrast to the other car which looks ordinary in color. The faded leather has a few minor scratches, but the mechanic has already inspected it. The engine is still in good condition and the price is lower than it should be.
This car might be a better purchase. The right question, therefore, is not just whether this car is good. Is it worth the price we paid? Paying off approximately 10 years after learning lessons from the stock sector. That was in 1978 when MarK was assigned to oversee it. And investing in high-yield bonds, which are...
Bonds issued by a company with a credit rating. These companies have low credibility and have to pay interest. The interest rate is higher than normal because lenders perceive that the borrower has... The chances of him defaulting on payments increased during that period. I worked with Mike Milken, who played the role.
A key factor in pioneering this market was the bond market. A portion of his investments are ranked... It's called a single BE in ranking guidelines. Moodies' credibility is... Reputable rating agencies for bonds. This ranking was explained as a lack of qualifications. To put it simply, a desirable investment is...
Industry standards say this isn't a good product. But the results were the opposite of the 50-dollar stock market era. It's the star item because everyone sees it as something special. Unfortunately, market expectations were very low, so the price was cheap. Push the price down until the return received is too high.
The risks exist for many troubled companies. The company can still pay interest as per the contract, for those who have been selected. Choosing carefully yields good returns. We need to make a clear distinction here; this lesson is not... They say that bad products are always more appealing than good ones.
Even a high-priced, low-quality item can be a bad purchase. Similarly, the bonds of bankrupt companies. In fact, it's possible to incur losses while still receiving a good return. The price will increase under two conditions. The first condition is the price that... The price paid must be significantly lower than the actual value.
Important point #2: The purchased item must be in good condition for delivery. That value comes from placing these two things together. One side of the picture clearly shows a good company. Ultimately, the company ends up paying a hefty price and suffering the consequences. The textbooks said it wasn't a worthwhile investment, but I got it at that price.
Low enough and select only those with a chance of survival. The result, therefore, does not depend on the quality of the thing. It's a one-off purchase, but the price depends on the item. It pays off considerably when you look beyond the stock market. The word "price" in our lives may not only refer to money.
But it also includes time, health, savings, and relationships. And the opportunity we have to forgo, assuming the owner... A small coffee shop owner received an offer. Rent space in the city's most famous shopping mall. Great location, lots of foot traffic, everyone says it's an opportunity. This kind of place is rare, but the rent is so high that the shop has to sell well.
Every day is a day without losses. If sales drop in any given month, the available capital might run out. Within a few months, another shop owner... Choosing a location with less foot traffic doesn't look cool. The rent is low enough for the shop to survive. Even in a quiet month, the first store might seem successful.
More successful than the first phase, but the second store has a chance. Staying in business long enough to build up a loyal customer base and adapt. Some people improve themselves at work as well. Choose the position that looks best in the eyes of others. Paid based on the hours worked. The family was terrified, and their health was almost completely compromised by the position.
That might be genuinely good, but the price you pay might be... It's too expensive compared to the value you get in return. It means we should run away from good things or avoid opportunities. It's always big, and sometimes it's really worth the price. And some people have life circumstances that support their needs.
They can take more risks than others; the point is... Did we ask about the price before making the decision? Or perhaps we were influenced by the goodness of that thing. I forgot to ask this, but I'd like you to pause and think for a moment. What you are choosing in your life is a matter of moment. I chose it because it's genuinely better than what others offer.
You have to pay or choose because everyone around you says so. It's so good that the price you pay is more than enough for it. The first tool that can be used immediately is the one that works best right away. When making important decisions, ask two separate questions. The first question is always, "How good is this?" The second question is...
What price do I have to pay, in terms of money and time? And the price paid was reasonable for what was already lost. Does it make sense if I can only answer the first question, meaning we... I haven't seen the whole picture yet, and this is what I wanted to share. Remember, good things may come at a high price.
It can hurt us just as much as something bad that happens slowly. Winning in the long run isn't about seeing the good things. He was the first to spot the gap. Struggling between quality and price, and unwilling to overpay. By the time one actually receives something in return, it will be morning. On Monday, two people read the same news article.
The news said... One company made a lot of profit. The history of skilled executives and best-selling products. Analysts from several firms have unanimously praised it. The first person to think this company is excellent must... Buy it now! The second person should take it a step further by considering the company.
This is truly excellent, but everyone knows this. It's all gone, and it seems people had too high expectations. What the company is capable of doing at this price now might be too expensive. These two people used the same set of data but arrived differently. The conclusions that are diametrically opposed to each other are: What Harvard Marks calls the difference.
Between simple thinking and multi-level thinking. Secondly, one-dimensional thinking is looking at things superficially. What's right in front of me, to summarize immediately, means the good news is... Bad news means it's worth buying; it could mean you should avoid the company. Thinking that it's worth investing in this way isn't always wrong.
And often it helps us make decisions about... It's simple and quick, but there's one big problem. Most people think the same way when everyone... If you think alike, the results are often the same. For most people, and in many situations, what... When everyone agrees, it's often reflected in... Or, in the event that the thinking process is already complete within the competition.
Level 2 involves asking questions that build upon the first conclusion, not... Just ask if this is good or bad, but ask about people. What do most people think about that expectation? To what extent is this already reflected in the price? In what ways do our thoughts differ from most people? It often prompts questions like, "What might the future be?" What are the different ways in which this could happen that we think it might?
Given the highest probability of us being right, what is our chance of making the right decision? This is mostly expected to happen. And what if our expectations differ from most people's? The larger the situation before us, does it offer opportunities or hide them? What dangers are there? It sounds like a story about...
Professional investors, but in reality, their way of thinking is... This is all around us all the time, let's say a company. The place you work for has opened a new position for everyone. I want a good salary and a job title that sounds good. Those close to executives who think in a single-minded way will tell you: Such a good position, but only people with a level 2 thinking ability should apply.
I would like to ask further why this position was vacant before. Why did he leave? What price did this position come at? What isn't mentioned in the job advertisement? If everyone competes to apply, what are our chances of getting a job? Things to lose during a protection contest. The answer might be that you should still apply.
That's not a problem at all because it doesn't involve level 2 thinking. It's there to make us reject everything, but it's there for... So that we can see the actual price before making a decision. The same principle can apply to matters within the home, for example. A couple of parents are choosing a tutoring school.
The subjects offered to students at the most prestigious school in town. Long waiting lists, high tuition fees, and everyone in the parent group... Speaking of people with a one-dimensional mindset, they would say that's what makes them famous. The best has to be the best, apply quickly before it's full!
Level 2 will then ask about crowded classrooms. With that size, how adequately will the teachers be able to supervise our children? The children have to travel long distances and get tired before starting school. Or not, and the extra money paid for the name? The voice of the institution will become added knowledge.
How much will it actually go up? Sometimes the answer might be... Let's talk about the really good teachers in a small institution nearby. A house can provide better returns for your children at a better price. Families don't have to tighten their belts to the point of stress; this is it. An example of seeing the hidden true price.
Beyond the phrase "the best in the business world," the truth becomes clear. It becomes clear when certain products become popular among a large number of people. Many people rushed to open stores selling similar products to what others had in mind. I see that the items on this single-story floor are selling well, so I need to hurry.
Go in before the momentum fades and level 2 thinkers will see. The restaurant would be overflowing when everyone went in at the same time. Rental and material costs will rise in part. Customers will start to get bored with the people who come in during that time. The strongest trend might therefore be those who pay the most.
This is the absolute worst possible chance of a comeback. That's an example of a great company from this morning. Monday, if connected to the lesson on stocks, 50. The best ones are those who bought when the price was high. Most people were right at first, these companies... That's good, but they didn't think further.
The second level is when everyone agrees that it's a good idea. The price will be pushed up until there's almost no room left. To be honest, there's a significant trap here. It's important to differentiate; some people listen and conclude that if... That simply means doing the opposite of what most people do.
Others buy, we sell; others sell, we buy. It's not like that. Yes, it's level 2 thinking, but it's one-level thinking. Just to reiterate the point that thinking differently is important. One person isn't enough because most people aren't always wrong. After going there many times, most people are right if we think that way.
Unlike most people, he was right in some aspects. We're the only ones who's wrong, and that's what we really wanted. It means thinking differently and that it's more accurate than simply saying "correct." It sounds easy, but it's very difficult to do because there's a reason behind it. The evidence supports the reason why most people overlook this.
What information did we see that they overlooked? Or perhaps we interpret the same set of data better. Why not think differently if you can't answer this question? Ours might just be stubbornness in wearing a certain outfit. Intelligence has another limitation, to be frank. Yes, there's no one-size-fits-all formula for level 2 thinking.
The table to be filled out does not have a calculator that can be pressed. The answer I got suggests that this requires... Superior judgment that is gradually developed. Based on my experience reading reviews of mistakes. And accepting that you may be wrong again. One thing is that level 2 thinking requires energy.
Our work doesn't necessarily have to be applied to everything. The life of choosing a lunch menu or selecting... The route home doesn't require that much thought, but... Issues with major consequences and difficult to resolve, such as... Changing jobs, taking out a large loan, investing in... Business or housing decisions.
It's always worthwhile to think a little further and to differentiate. Please clarify that level 2 thinking is not the same as regular thinking. It's so overwhelming that it worries people who are consumed by fear. Everything will fall apart if you don't think any deeper than everyone else. Just stuck on one floor that's darker than before.
Level 2 thinking requires direction, which means asking questions that... It helps to get a clearer picture, then stop when you're ready. There's enough information to make a decision; don't ask further questions. It's getting so slow that I don't dare do anything anymore; there's an analogy. A simple analogy to help remember and process the thinking process.
It's like looking at the surface of water and seeing that the water is still. In summary, it's safe. Level 2 thinking is... The next question is, how deep is underwater in still water? What's the trend down there and why are other people reacting that way? If we don't go down here, how will we start training?
From a simple method for making important decisions: 1. This week's topic requires you to write a short answer in three words. line What is our first line, our initial conclusion? Line 2: Most people in the same situation... What would you think in line 3 if everyone...? Thinking like that will lead to another step forward.
For example, let's say you're thinking of buying... Condos near the new BTS Skytrain line might be the first option. The description says it's in a good location near the train station, so the price should go up. The second line might say, "Most people think so." Similarly, other projects in the area opened at the same time.
In many places, line 3 might say "when". There's an oversupply of vacant rooms in the rental or resale market. It might be harder than you think, and the price you're paying now might... All expectations were included, so it didn't take long to write. Even though it only takes 5 minutes, it helps you see things you used to not see.
It's much clearer now that these three lines of answer aren't. They said not to buy, but they encouraged us to ask questions. This room is reasonably priced lower than those in nearby projects. If we can't rent it out for several months, we... We can still afford the payments and we're buying because we live there.
Is it true that they're afraid of missing out? I'd like you to pause and reflect on this matter for a moment. This week, you're most confident about thinking only of... The first step, or the next step, is to think about what will follow. The second level is for those who have trained themselves to think this way until they become proficient.
Personality often doesn't make someone the most outstanding person. In the conversation, his answer wasn't exciting. Sometimes, he's the only one who says "still." Not buying, not moving, or not expanding on that date. Everyone is in a hurry; he may seem slow and ordinary, but... Making a decision after further consideration helps to cut costs.
The biggest mistake most people make. Simultaneously, level 2 thinking helps us. We can make better decisions, but it doesn't give us control. Those who think deeply can control all outcomes. Humility must always be accompanied by thoughtful consideration. Do the best you can and accept the world. There are also factors that are beyond our control.
Accepting this doesn't change our thinking. We softened ourselves, but made ourselves stronger and more honest. This is even more true if one engineer leaves. It's like a bridge, and then one day the bridge collapses, and we're almost... It will be immediately clear that something went wrong in the output.
Design or construction, because in the world of engineering... Cause and effect are quite closely linked if calculated correctly. If the right materials are used, the bridge should be able to stand, but... In real life, most people don't work as a global bridge. Regarding investment, starting a business, or choosing a job.
Even family decisions are influenced by various factors. We have no control over the constant interference during the cutting process. The same decision made at the same time may yield different results. The results are completely different depending on the cause. An unexpected event: Harvard Marks.
This matter is highly valued, and the book... One book he often mentions is Fooled by. Randomness of Nasim Nicholus Taleb The book title can be roughly translated as "correctly understood." It accidentally deceives the book's main idea: the world. Investing is highly random; people don't always get returns.
A good replacement might have been achieved at one point due to luck, not necessarily. Because of his skills, those around him, including himself, often... It is believed to be due to their previous skills. Ten years in 1963, a textbook on decision-making was published. Under Uncertainty, written by C.
Jackson. Grson, which Mar also mentioned, conveyed the main message. We cannot judge the decision. Once, things are good or bad based solely on one outcome. Because even good decisions can fail. And bad decisions can still succeed because... Luck sounds like something everyone already knows. But in real life, we rarely actually follow through.
This picture shows two people who have the same amount of savings. Let's assume the first person takes almost all of their savings. They spent all their money on trendy assets. Because my friends in the group said that another person is definitely going to join. Set aside emergency funds first, then gradually.
Invest regularly every month in things you care about. Understanding that one year has passed since the first person purchased the asset. The price tripled, and he became someone everyone... The second person who sought advice received a reward. It was so casual that nobody seemed interested in asking the question: "Who?" It's better to make a decision based on the first person's results.
It was a landslide victory, but judging from the process, the first person took the money. Those who are not ready to lose something should put it aside for what they already have. I didn't understand it simply because of other people. Tell me, if you could go back in time and make him decide the same way...
Originally, out of 10 attempts, there might be multiple instances with the same result. The result is that almost all of my savings are gone, which is quite tempting. Looking beyond what could be called a concept. Alternative history means not just looking at things. What actually happened, but also consider the date on that day.
What are some of the possible scenarios if you decide to proceed? One decision can have positive effects on the world as it unfolds. It's true, but it has devastating consequences in many other worlds as well. It might not be difficult to make that decision. It wasn't as good as the results suggested in the comparison.
A simple analogy is someone who drives too fast. I braved the rain to get home and arrived safely. Danger doesn't mean that driving like that is safe. That means he wasn't unlucky that night. This happens very often at work, let's say... One of the team leaders decided to take on a big project. A very risky situation due to a failure to assess manpower requirements.
Being cautious, it so happened that one of the customers extended their contract. The project was so successful it exceeded expectations, so he got a promotion. His position and his becoming an example of courage. Make a decision while the leader of another team is setting it up. A well-planned scheme had backup plans, but then an unexpected event occurred.
The unexpected delays caused the work to be perceived as incompetent. Business owners also face the same trap, let's say. That a small restaurant happened to be taken over by someone. It has a good reputation and positive reviews on social media, with a huge influx of customers. People have been lining up every day for months for the shop owner.
In short, it's their own recipe and management style. Being better than the competition, they borrowed money to open three more branches. They were available at the same time, but as the positive reviews faded, customers... Returning to normal levels, all new branches must bear the burden. Costs calculated based on periods of bad luck.
Yes, it's from the actual work of the shop, no problem. It doesn't matter whether the food is delicious or not, it depends on... It's impossible to distinguish which of the positive results came from which. Skill and elements derived from controlled events. There's no other reason for us to believe in luck.
When we talk about skillful work, we often only hear about it. Those who win against those who bet everything and get rich will be promoted. The storytelling platform got media coverage and became a force. It inspires more people than it inspires those who give it their all. It's the same situation, but there's really no one left who's actually out there.
Please go ahead and tell your story when we hear it. Those on our side mistakenly believed that method was effective. The results are far better than they actually are if organizations judge people based on their actions. Based on the results alone, it will reward luck. And punishment is given for prudence at the same time.
In the next round, everyone will learn that it's worth taking risks. From being a team leader at first until one day luck ran out. The damage here will be even greater. This is where it connects back to the main question. In what year was the person ranked number 1? One might be there because of skill, or perhaps...
He was there because he was taking the biggest risk. Luckily, that year we were fortunate enough to be on our side. Looking at just one year, we can separate these two types. Almost never, but as the years passed, the... Randomness begins to average itself out; luck doesn't come. Every year, the accumulated risks just wait for their time.
Those who take big risks often have a very good year. Alternating with very bad years while people made decisions. A well-structured process often yields less flashy results. But consistency, and therefore long-lasting consistency, are key. A sign of skill is more reliable than victory. The one standout moment needs to be clearly separated here.
Okay, this concept doesn't mean that all success is guaranteed. Everything is a result of luck, skill, knowledge, and effort. It is effective, and in the long run, skill usually speaks for itself. It's becoming clearer and clearer what this concept is saying: Randomness has a greater impact than we often acknowledge.
Therefore, we should not jump to conclusions based solely on the short-term outlook. The quality of decision-making based on a few results. On the other hand, this also made the news. Good for people who are blaming themselves for the results. Sometimes, the bad thing is that you make decisions carefully.
But it depends, and if the outcome is bad, that might not be the case. It means you were mistaken; it might mean you found the correct result. The unlucky part of all possibilities. What should be done is to honestly review the process. Being straightforward doesn't mean abandoning a good mindset just because of the results.
Once you get the result, we'll separate luck from illness. How can hands be separated like this? There's no way to make them perfectly separate. But there are three questions that can be very helpful when the results are out. The outcome of this crucial decision has been determined, regardless... Whether it's good or bad, that's the first question we ask on the day we make a decision.
What data do we have, and how do we use it? That's a reasonable answer to question 2. At that time, we... What possibilities have you considered, and what are they? What actually happens is within the realm of possibility. Are we prepared for this? (Question 3) If you make the same decision 10 more times...
In similar situations, the most likely outcome would be... What will the outcome be if the results are good but you can't answer these three questions? Well, we might be winning the lottery. It's more dangerous than you think because it makes us feel confident. It's not a really good method if the result is bad, but the answer is 3.
This works well, so we may not need to change our way of thinking. It's all just a matter of adjusting a few details, starting from... Let's start with small things first, like next time you... Achieving good results from one piece of work before drawing any conclusions. To determine if this method works, ask yourself: what if my child...
That retailer didn't respond, or if a competitor released a product. New products released a week ago will still show good results. Here's something I'd like you to pause and think for a moment. Your most recent success in life resulted from... Was it a good decision or just a stroke of luck? Entering a highly random or baffling world.
When the two are mixed, the proportions are approximately... How much? If that's difficult to answer, think of other people who have done it. The same as you at the same time if that person... Most people who do the same thing get equally good results. The result might be a more conducive environment than a simple abscess.
It's a unique skill, but if you consistently perform well in it... Many different situations, both good and bad. Those difficult times are a reliable sign. Your skill plays a significant role in answering the question. Asking this question honestly does not diminish its value. Success helps us avoid relying on luck.
There is one thing to consider in the next decision: This is very important considering that the world is constantly random. What we can really control is not the outcome, but... It is the quality of the decision-making process and... Be prepared for a variety of possible outcomes. People who understand this won't be narcissistic.
Have a lucky day and don't ruin yourself on that day. Unfortunately, he will be standing on the good side of the process. Steadfast Then let time be the judge. In the long run, a good process usually yields better results. If you ask the average person, relying on luck is risky. What is it? The answer is usually something like, "the...
Risk is the chance of losing money, the chance of... Failure, or the likelihood that things will not go as planned. These suggested solutions aren't wrong, but they lack a crucial aspect. On one hand, Harvard Marks often provides a definition. The risks associated with Professor Elroy Dimson. From London Business School, which is short.
But at its core, the message is that risk means there is one. Things that are more likely to happen than they are likely to happen. This is the first time I've heard a sentence that says "that this will actually happen." It might be confusing at first, but if you think about it carefully, you'll see that...
It perfectly describes life every morning when we wake up. Many things can happen as a result of this. On that day, but in the end, there will only be one outfit. In reality, we only see the sequence of events that occur. It depends on the risk factors involved in the potential outcomes. Everything is allowed, including those that weren't even created.
That's why we often underestimate the risks. When things don't go well, we think that... The risk doesn't really exist, even though it might just be... He hasn't arrived yet, but I'm thinking about the person who rode the motorcycle there. I've been working without a helmet for 10 years. He might feel that because no accident has ever happened.
I ride carefully enough and a helmet is a must. Not necessary, but the 10-year safe period doesn't delete it. The fact that every morning for 10 years there was... Many other types of events could also occur and... Some types are so severe that they are irreversible, and the risk remains. It didn't decrease because we were lucky to have it for a long time in a row, it just...
It has not yet been revealed that he has a personal motto. One thing that explains this very clearly is... The point is, don't forget the 6-foot-tall man who drowned. While crossing a stream that was an average of only 5 feet deep. If we convert feet to the units we are familiar with, it's 6 feet. That's approximately 180 cm, and 5 feet is approximately 150 cm.
This man is taller than the average depth of the stream. About one cubit, if calculated on an average basis. He should be able to walk across comfortably with his head above water. Along the way, the word "average" hides the truth. A stream that is an average of 5 feet deep may have shallow sections.
It's only knee-high and may have a hole in the middle that's up to 8 inches deep. Average foot strikes don't help at all in seconds. His feet stepped into the hole and he drowned. Watering just once yields no results. The solution to learning from this image is that we don't. We don't live average lives; we live...
Life goes through every point on its journey, including that point... The deepest point, and if there's any point that causes it... We can't go on, no matter how good the average is. This has meaning and is connected to the concept that... Financial analysts call this expected value; it's the result that is taken into account.
Each possible outcome is multiplied by... The chance that they will occur and combine to form something. A single digit expected value is a tool that... It has advantages, but a major weakness is that it doesn't... Tell me which of the results are correct. Are we completely unacceptable? Let me give you an example.
Let's assume there's an alternative option. The chances of a good outcome are as high as 98%, and the return... On average, it looks very interesting; many people would say that... This choice is safe, but what about the other 2%? What remains is the consequence of losing the house. Businesses or those in debt that they can no longer repay.
This alternative lifestyle isn't as safe as it seems. The numbers make it look good if we fall into the 2%. Then we won't have the opportunity to take advantage of the 98%. The rest can be compared to activity 2. An illustration showing cycling in a park. There's a fairly high chance of falling, but mostly...
It's just a minor abrasion from skydiving from an airplane. The chances of a serious accident occurring may not be high. Even with good equipment and training, what if...? The consequences could be life-threatening; therefore, these two activities... It's not just the probability of the event happening that's different, but...
The key is to gauge the severity of the results on a bad day. Ultimately, the person who truly assesses the risk is the one who does it. So, I wasn't just asking about the chances of things going badly. How much? But if you ask me, if it's really bad, it can be bad. How far can we go, and can we handle it?
These are the two questions. They must always be together; if one is missing, the picture is incomplete. The perceived risks do not fully encompass this principle. It's more useful in daily life than you might think. Let's assume there's an employee with a monthly income... On average, he manages to spend enough and have a little left over to save.
So I decided to buy a new car, pay for a house, and use my credit card. I used my credit card to buy essential items until I reached the maximum credit limit. Affordable Everything aligns perfectly with the average figures, but one day... The company laid off employees, or someone in the household fell ill and had to be hospitalized.
The hospital has lost 2-3 weeks' worth of revenue. Expenses increased this month, which seems reasonable. What seems like a normal success becomes a deep hole that's easy to climb out of. Not being able to come on a bad day is also a problem for the business owner. Similarly, average monthly sales might be sufficient.
Paying rent, wages, and interest on the loan, but... If there is a period of 3 consecutive months of declining sales... Due to the economic downturn, flooding, or individual customers. The big players moved to other businesses that weren't making money. The backup might have to be shut down even if it gets through the period.
That's possible; business might return to normal. 2 This example shares one common characteristic: the plan was designed. This is for average users, not designed for... The deepest and saddest point is the deepest point. The best time often comes when we are at our weakest. When the economy is bad, many people lose their jobs at the same time.
Banks are making it harder to lend, so customers are spending more. Fewer bad things happen, so they don't come one at a time. Polite, but often comes with multiple plans. I'm thinking of using an emergency loan or finding a source of income. Supplements added at the time may be completely ineffective.
The day we really need it, we have to say it here. Clearly, this lesson isn't telling us to give up. You can take risks with everything, but you also have to take no risks at all. There are costs involved; we might miss out on growth opportunities. Learning from mistakes yields reasonable rewards. Changing jobs, starting a business, or investing.
There are risks involved, and often it's worth it. Yes, what this lesson teaches is to differentiate. There are two types of risk; the first type is risk itself. Where if we make a mistake, we get hurt, but we can still get back up. 2. It's a risk where if we miss, we won't have another chance. You can continue playing as before, which is part of...
The second type of growth is one to avoid. Seriously avoid it, no matter how the average seems. How interesting is it, and how can we use it? Let's begin. Before making a big decision, ask yourself one question. The question is, what if the worst-case scenario happens? The chances of this happening are realistic, not an exaggeration.
It's impossible. I can still survive and move on. If the answer is yes, we might move forward with renewed confidence. I'm more confident if the answer is no, then it's no. It doesn't mean we have to cancel, but it also means we have to adjust the plan. Allow for some room, such as reducing the amount of money invested.
Increase your reserves and divide your decision-making into... It's advisable to have a backup plan in place. What would you do if something bad happened? The first tangible example is before someone resigns. When starting a business, you might determine that you need money. Save enough for family expenses.
Few clear months and deadlines. Let's say, when a certain month arrives, the business... I haven't earned enough income yet to go back. This kind of assignment doesn't mean no. Having confidence in yourself means we know that... The stream had a deep hole in it, and we had ropes ready. Before you cross this path, I'd like you to pause and reflect.
Take a moment to consider the life plan or work plan you are currently using. Is it on average for a normal day? Prepare to face the deepest point of the line. The answer has already been set, so this question might make you feel uncomfortable. It's understandable because no one wants to think about bad days, but...
It's better to think ahead to days when things are still peaceful. Having to figure out a way out when the water is up to your neck. This also helps explain the main question of the story. This adds another layer, with people trying to stay at the top. The top performers every year often have to take more risks than others.
Otherwise, mediocre performance wouldn't be enough for him. Often, the increased risk is due to... A deep hole lies within those who are satisfied with the results. Average level, but unwilling to approach the hole. Deep may not seem outstanding year after year, but he has it. There's a much higher chance of still being in the game when...
Time has passed, and this is what I wanted. Remember, we cannot live our lives solely on monetary value. Average the factors that determine whether we reach our destination. Or rather, it's about surviving the worst day. To get someone who is risk-averse, you need to find someone who is not. I was someone who was afraid to cross the stream, but I was a person.
Knowing where the terrain is deep and being prepared beforehand. Your foot will step onto that spot if you've ever watched... In world-class tennis matches, you'll see that most of the points... It ended with a beautiful shot; the player hit the ball just wide. Line the ball at high speed or place it at an angle.
If the competitors can't catch it in time, the winner is the one who... You can create more children like this, but if you look... Two friends were playing tennis together on a court near their house during... On Saturday evening, the picture will be completely different; the score will be different.
The big game doesn't end with a beautiful goal, but with a goal that... Hitting the net, hitting the ball out of court, or having a series of bad serves. Twice, the winner in this type of situation is usually not the person who... He hits the ball most beautifully, but he's also the one who makes the fewest mistakes.
This observation comes from Dr. Simon Ramo, an actor. A scientist who writes books about... Tennis for casual and later players. Investment thinker Charlie Ellis has introduced... Let's write an article titled "The Losers Game". Which roughly translates to "Harvard's Losers' Game." Marks adopted this concept as a core principle.
Regarding his investment methods, the difference between these two games... Let me explain it this way: the first type of game is a game of... The winner is determined by what they do. The player who creates more beautiful shots wins. The second type of game is the loser's game, where the outcome is correct.
Judging by mistakes; those who make fewer mistakes. He won even though he never hit a single memorable shot. In tennis, athletes call this type of mistake the latter. Unforced Error means an error. The shots that weren't forced off by the opponent were those that... I could hit the ball, but I missed some shots, not because my opponent was skilled.
This unacceptable concept is also consistent with textbooks. A classic investment strategy called Security Analysis. At Benjamin Written by David Dot in 1940. Investing in bonds is described as an art. The negative aspect means that good results don't always come naturally. It's not about what we choose to buy, but where it comes from.
We refused to buy it. Imagine this, let's say it existed. There are 100 bonds to choose from, all of which promise to... Interest is paid at the same rate if all payments are made. As per the agreement, everyone who purchased received a return. It's all equal, nobody wins, but in reality... It's true that some may default on payments and not pay the interest.
Whether the principal is repaid or not, that's whoever does it. The best job is not the one who finds the payer. I found the most because all of them cost the same amount. It depends on who is selected to miss the appointment. The greatest victory in this type of game comes from... Elimination is not about selection and skill.
Most importantly, have the courage to say no, even to what is... No matter how interesting something looks right in front of you, you must... Let me be clear here, it doesn't specify whether it's a download or not. All forms of investment are 100% losers' games, he also... They view some parts of the market as imperfect and that people...
Even those with truly specialized knowledge still struggle to find opportunities. It stands out, but only for most people. In most situations, the emphasis is on avoiding conflict. Making big mistakes often yields better results than trying to create something. A great victory when looking back at life.
Ordinary working people will find that there are many important issues. It's more of a loser's game than you might think. Regarding personal finances, those who are financially stable... Many people's retirement income doesn't come from investments that... You can make a huge profit all at once, but it comes from doing nothing.
Things that can ruin a big sum of money include not taking out a loan. Investing money in something you don't understand is not worthwhile. Guaranteeing someone else's debt without thinking or using the credit card. Credit that leads to continuous high interest payments. For many years, they didn't fall for the offers that claimed to be genuine.
High returns with no risk. Let's assume there are two employees on the same team. The first person had a great idea, was good at presenting it, but failed to submit the work. Often late, figures in reports are frequently incorrect, and things are forgotten. I've had a few client meetings, but the second one didn't give me any ideas.
Flashy but delivers on time, checks the numbers beforehand. Always deliver and keep your promises. In the short term, the first person might receive more praise, but in the long run... In the long run, people are the ones the boss trusts to handle important tasks. Often, they are the second person in line for many small businesses.
The business didn't close down because the products were bad, but... Closed due to avoidable errors such as: Expanding branches too quickly without managing finances properly. The company ran out of personal funds and didn't keep proper accounting records. Taxation errors or over-reliance on a single client.
The same goes for health; having good health is important. Good in the long run for most people doesn't always come true. From miracle supplements to exercise programs. The body is incredibly brutal, but it stems from avoiding destructive things. Ongoing health issues such as persistent sleep deprivation.
Prolonged sitting all day without moving and... Ignoring abnormal symptoms until it's too late to address the problem. Relationships are no different; lasting relationships are essential. Long periods of time within the family or with close friends are often not necessary. Built upon a huge surprise that happens once a year.
But it is based on not repeatedly harming each other every day. It's a matter of course, like not saying anything that would damage someone's dignity again. When angry, one might not break a promise, even over a small matter. It's a habit to not let resentment accumulate. Until everything exploded on the same day, following a pattern.
The same person didn't win with a beautiful goal, but won with... If you don't hit the ball yourself, why do most people still...? I want to play the winner's game in real life. It's a loser's game. One reason is that the stories we hear are often... It's about a beautiful daughter who made a one-time investment.
Then there are those who quit their jobs to start their own businesses and become rich and successful. Achieving success within a year—that's amazing. Exciting and easily shared... There is no one who hasn't made a mistake in 20 years. Who wants to listen? Because there are no shocking scenes. As we danced, the image in our minds tilted towards the child.
Much more beautiful than reality, a question many might ask. My question is, if we only focus on being careful not to make mistakes, what will we do? They will become timid, afraid to do anything, and... Whether they're growing or not, the answer lies on the tennis court. That's right, players who win by making fewer mistakes.
He stood still and didn't hit his son, yet he hit every single son. As soon as he arrived, he was running and playing to his heart's content, except for him. Choose to hit the ball that you are confident in hitting and send it. Get back on the court and don't try to hit the ball. Too difficult to achieve merely to look good; avoidance.
Avoiding mistakes is not the same as avoiding them altogether. Those who refuse to step onto the field will not win. He just wasn't playing the part where the people were on the court and hitting the ball. Being disciplined means being someone who consistently scores points. On a day when the opponent tried to hit a beautiful shot but missed.
And as our skills develop, so do our children. If we hit with confidence, the range will naturally widen. This type of growth may be slower, but it's more stable. Because it's built on things we can't actually do. Yes, that's what we hoped to achieve, and we will begin. How to apply it starts with finding the mistakes.
That wasn't forced upon them to encounter or write about. List of 3 mistakes you repeat. Most often in work or in spending money? It has to be a big deal, like submitting work without checking it. Repeatedly agreeing to take on additional work without checking the original schedule? Buy something when you're in a bad mood, then create a level.
Simply check each item before clicking submit. Important emails should be read thoroughly once before accepting the assignment. Newcomers should ask about deadlines and specify the original tasks that need to be done. Postpone your purchase before buying anything over 1,000 baht at... I didn't plan on waiting one night before making a decision.
These small checkpoints may not seem exciting, but they are helpful. Reducing unforced errors greatly affects the level. The result of the test is that it has to be simple enough to do even in... A day when you're tired or in a bad mood because... Most mistakes don't happen on our day. Ready from the moment, even on days when we're stressed and in a rush.
It would be overconfident if the checkpoint were so complex that it required... With strong willpower, we will get through it when needed. The best way to pass an exam is to make it short, clear, and concise. With a situation that is repeating itself, just like every time before. Press submit every time before making a payment or every time.
Before accepting the job, after working continuously for a while... We will begin to see a decrease in the same mistakes and positive results. Overall, the work improved even without any [special] elements. This is the power of the game, it offers even more special abilities. Something that many people overlook about losers, I want to emphasize this point.
Take a moment to reflect on your work or your life. Right now you're trying to hit a beautiful shot that's too difficult. The real skill, or what needs to be done, is hitting the ball back. Getting on the field regularly is important. In most ordinary people's lives, decisions are not made based on that.
There were few beautiful balls, but the winner was determined by the number of balls. We don't make mistakes ourselves; those who understand the game don't. You don't need to be a genius, you just need enough discipline. I won't repeat the self-harming acts again. Let time and consistency take their course.
On April 10, 1995 Harvard Marks and partners have written: Oak Tree Capital's investment philosophy He mentioned six points, saying that this had been going on for over 20 years. After that, this philosophical framework was never revised. Not even a single word conveys the core message of the philosophy.
This isn't flashy at all; it's just a suggestion. The first step is to focus on control. The risk is followed by a greater emphasis on... Consistency in seeking opportunities in markets where people... Most of them are still not appraised well enough. Specializing in not making investment decisions.
By relying on forecasts of the big economic picture and... There's nothing written about not trying to time the market. Whether it has to be number one or it has to be profitable. The highest every year, what's interesting is that... One set of philosophies remained unresolved for decades. The market tells us something during that time.
We have been through both periods of extreme bustling activity and periods of crisis. There are countless new trends to keep up with. Everything is complete, but the principles that are held onto remain unchanged. Those trends are not consistent. It's not just about the performance figures, but about the mindset from the beginning.
The origin is to show that this kind of idea yields results. However, there is a story that answers that question. The most accurate interpretation of this point is that... From the pension fund of one of our clients. This is a fund that manages retirement money. Before we get to the numbers, let me explain the term...
Let's clarify the percentile first when organizing. Fund ranking if we consider all funds. They are arranged from best to worst performance. Divided into 100 parts, the first percentile is... The best group at the 50th percentile is: Right in the middle, and 100 percent is the group. At its worst, the lower the number, the worse it means.
Always been close to the top rankings for the past 14 years that I've been talking about. This fund has never been in the top group in any year. The event rotates between different periods each year. 27th-47th percentile Simply put, every year the average is moderate to slightly above average. Slightly above average, but never.
It's a news story that's never been cited as an example, and it probably should. No one in the industry was watching, but when the results were presented... This ranking is based on 14 years of combined work. Back up to the 4th percentile, or... In other words, they are in the top 4% of the country.
It might sound improbable at first. A scholarship that has never been ranked among the top in any year will now be awarded. How did they top the overall rankings? The answer is the team. Many other funds that were once ranked in the top... Some years require taking high risks to achieve results. Such outstanding work, and when the year came...
In worst-case scenarios, those risks are... The results showed they suffered such severe damage that the overall project collapsed. As for funds that consistently perform in the middle range, no. I've never fallen into a deep hole like that before. To make it clearer, let's use some simple, hypothetical numbers.
To explain the mathematical principles behind it. These figures do not represent the actual performance of any fund. Let's assume the first person invests 100 baht each. Choosing a high-stakes path yielded a 30% profit in the first year, and even higher in the second year. We faced a 40% loss in the third year, but managed to recover.
Another 30% profit is available to the second person who chooses the consistent approach. The profit is 10% annually, every year, if you look at it year by year, for the first person. They performed better than the second-place candidate in two out of three years. At first glance, it seems like a victory, but after 3 years...
The first person's 100 baht will be reduced to approximately 101 baht. The 100 baht of the second person will become... It's approximately 133 baht, the reason being natural. The loss occurs when the money is halved. It needs to be 100% profitable to get back to where it started. Originally, the huge loss wasn't just a negative one.
Past profits, but reduced knitting activity continues to drive growth. The deeper the hole, the more time it takes. That's how long it takes to climb back up here. The essence of the phrase "avoiding losers" in this language... Let's consider all possible outcomes. Draw an inverted bell curve graph; the leftmost side represents the result.
The worst-case scenario on the far right is the result. The best and the middle ground are the typical results for most people. Those chasing the top spot are often willing to expand both. To have a chance to get to the far right side, but... We have to acknowledge the far left side, which extends even deeper.
O's approach, however, is to try to cut ties with the other side. Those who go to the left are willing to sacrifice the opportunity for a more dramatic result. Sometimes it's better to compromise and avoid almost any positive results. The disastrous result means the annual performance seems ordinary, but the impact...
Long-term collaborative work stands out—this isn't the point. The only investment a person can make in their working life. That which progresses gradually and steadily never... Destroying one's own reputation with a major mistake. Never burned bridges with important people and never lost anything. Health issues that force you to take extended breaks from work often lead to long-term career advancement.
More than someone who rises quickly but falls hard many times. When it comes to money, people who save consistently every month... I invested hoping to get rich quick, but I've never experienced it. Losing everything that wipes out a lifetime's savings often leaves someone financially secure. More secure in retirement compared to those who...
I've made big profits many times, but also suffered losses. It got so bad once that we had to start over with the project. The health of people who exercise moderately and regularly. Every week for 10 years, you'll have a strong body. Stronger than someone who trains intensely in bursts. Then he got injured and had to stop for several months before...
Starting over every time, especially after a particularly strenuous round, might be necessary. It gives faster results in the short term, but there's a period when... Stopping because of injury is a deep hole that erases progress. The same faces have appeared almost entirely in the growing retail business.
Not a large amount each year, but have savings and don't borrow excessively. They usually get through crises when their competitors... Rapid expansion often leads to closures during difficult times. The shops that remained gained the remaining customers. There's not much competition if you observe the differences carefully.
The distinction between these two approaches is almost nonexistent during that period. Normally, during a year when everything goes well and everyone seems competent. The difference becomes apparent during times of hardship. The worst is only visible when the tide recedes. Who built the house on piles and who built it on...?
Sand is someone who consistently stays in the middle ground. He won in a good year, but he also won in a bad year by... I lost far less than others when the situation arose. Once things returned to normal, he began to grow further from that foundation. They're all still here, while others need a long time.
Years to climb back up to the same spot, but the story... This is more difficult emotionally than intellectually because... Humans like to compare themselves to the people around them. Short-term effect when you turn on your phone and see your friends. Making a big profit leads to a quick promotion, right?
The business is open and thriving; this is the path you've chosen. Slow but steady won't make us feel like we're losing. Even though the real competition isn't over yet and we still... However, we didn't see their bad year at all. We need to be frank about the limitations. Firstly, this approach makes the work look very ordinary.
The period when everything is going well during a bull market. While those around him are profiting enormously, the one in control... The risks may seem insidious and must be endured. With that feeling, follow these two guidelines. It takes time to see results, maybe a year or two. You might not see the difference in point 3; there's nothing to accept.
It ensures that maintaining a consistent middle ground will... It consistently brings the fund's figures to the top. This is a case study, not a hard and fast rule. A versatile choice for everyone and every situation, but the main one is... The mathematics of the loss described above. It is always true, and it must be clearly distinguished, that it is in the middle.
"In this context, it doesn't mean doing the work half-heartedly or haphazardly." Even without self-improvement, this fund is still better. On average, the one thing it doesn't do every year is give in. Taking a huge risk just to get the number one spot this year. How is it applied in each year, starting with...
Change the questions you use to assess your performance instead of... They asked me what rank I was this year. They're asking what I did this year that was risky and could cause destruction. Is it something that has accumulated over many years? If the answer is... No, and we've even improved a bit compared to last year.
That was a good year, even though nobody applauded. Let me explain directly: I'd like you to pause and think for a moment. Are you ready to look ordinary on a day when the people around you... You're getting spectacular results in exchange for the opportunity. The higher the chance of standing near the top.
Ten years have passed, and this is what happens. Remember, being above average is just... Slightly but steadily, without ever falling. Deep sinkholes possess more power than meets the eye, and each year they spread. Because in the long run, the bad guys win. Other years are often not the best years, but they are the years that...
The worst, and the person who had a bad year, isn't necessarily bad. Most often, the person who walks the furthest to the end is the one who wins. This year we often hear many predictions for next year. The economy will recover, interest rates will fall, and house prices will drop. To succeed in this type of business, your career will thrive.
Some predictions from experts will disappear. Some predictions about high positions come from people who can speak eloquently. They were very confident in the conversation, and many people brought up the prediction. Those things can be used to make big decisions in life. Harvard Marks has a different perspective on this.
One of Oak 3's philosophies is to not cut. Investment decisions are based on economic forecasts. It's significant because he views most economic predictions as false. Being big doesn't really help you make money, as is often said. Observations by John Kenneth Gbert, a scientist. A famous economist categorizes forecasters into different groups.
Divided into 2 groups. The first group consists of people who don't know; the second group consists of people who do. What you don't know, you might learn after hearing it. It feels intense, but the truth is, nobody really knows. The future is definitely uncertain; the difference lies in... Who accepts this and who doesn't accept this group?
The first group can still be cautious, but what about the second group? It's far more dangerous because he makes decisions as if he knows what he's doing. Why are predictions so little help with the future? More complex than you might think, and it can be explained with simple reasoning. It's very simple; most predictions just tell you what tomorrow will bring.
This would be similar to today if the economy grew only a quarter way this year. Forecasts often say that it will continue to grow next year if the flowers... This year's income is at a certain level, as the predictions often say. That next year will be close to the same level, according to the prediction.
Drawing a line extending from the present like this is usually correct. It's big because most of the world is changing slowly, but... The problem is that accurate predictions like these hardly make any money. That's because most people expect the same thing. That expectation is fully reflected in the price.
And what everyone knows doesn't benefit anyone. A prediction that could actually make you money is... A prediction that foretells a change. A major transformation that most people haven't yet seen. For example, an impending crisis or a turning point. The market predicts things like this, but it's very rare and almost impossible.
Some people who consistently get it right might guess correctly. Once upon a time, you become famous, but if you look at the statistics... His other predictions also turned out to be wrong. Most people have previously used survey results to gather opinions from students. Economics at the Wall Street Journal.
The journal collected and examined the data and found the following characteristics: Consistent with this observation is the conjecture. Mostly similar to the current situation and Often missed during periods of change. The major period is when predictions will be useful. Most importantly, it should be noted that this problem is not...
It happened because there were many incompetent economists. He has deep knowledge and works very hard, but... Major changes often result from factors that... So complex and interconnected that no one notices. Seeing everything in advance, having extensive knowledge, therefore... It means being able to accurately predict the future; to use a vivid image, you might say...
It was like a weather forecast that was almost accurate. Every day I hope that tomorrow's weather will be similar to today's, but... Missed the day when a big storm was about to hit, which was... The only day we really need a warning is... One quote that people often attribute to Mark. Although the exact origin is still unclear, the gist is...
What's causing us trouble isn't the thing itself. We don't know for sure, but here's what we're certain we do know. Even though that's not actually the case. This concept is frequently warned about because of the potential damage. Great things often don't happen out of ignorance, but... This situation arose from a false sense of confidence.
It happens in the lives of ordinary people more often than we might think. One business owner heard from several people that... The office predicts that the economy will definitely improve next year. Therefore, they borrowed a large sum of money to expand and open two more branches. Advance payment calculated based on expected sales.
The advantage will increase if the prediction is correct. Competitors, but only if the prediction is wrong and the economy remains stable. Or worse, he would have to bear the rent and interest. Premiums increase on days when sales do not increase. Or someone who buys a second home with a loan. I'm taking out the full loan because I believe house prices will keep rising.
This belief may have been true in the past. For a while, but there's no guarantee. True in the future, and if one day you want to sell it. Periods when prices don't rise or there are no buyers; a burden. Everything fell on him alone, even the... Some people choose their careers quickly, changing their entire job line.
Just because I heard that my old profession will disappear... A few years passed without assessing whether that prediction had come true. How reliable is it, and does it have the space to adjust? Regardless of the severity, the whole family experiences the same thing. This is a common dilemma when choosing a field of study for children.
The family chose the branch of business based on the prediction that it would prosper. In another 10 years, this kind of prediction will have changed. Gradually, every few years, new branches of the future are introduced. While it may be a long time before your child enrolls in school, someone else may have already graduated.
The market is flooded with unskilled graduates once their children finish their studies. The foundation of thinking is in communication and learning. Learning something new doesn't depend on any prediction. But it's usable in almost every way in the future, so why? That's why we still enjoy listening to predictions even though we know they are false.
One reason for its inaccuracy is the uncertainty that makes it difficult to predict. We are uneasy about the prophecy that says so. Confidence helps us feel that the world has the answers and... We have a direction to follow this feeling. It's human nature, but the peace of mind that... Predictions do not guarantee the future.
Going up there just makes us forget to prepare for it. This needs to be clearly distinguished from the case where the prediction is wrong. Okay, I didn't say that you're forbidden from expressing your opinion on this matter. Thinking about the future is essential. We all had to plan ahead for what he said.
The warning is: you can have an opinion, but don't act on it. While that opinion is definitely correct, the difference lies in the fact that it's not. This is detailed but very important. People who have opinions... I admit it might be wrong, but I will plan to create a designated area. Just in case, for those who are confident in their opinion...
I'm sure I'll pour everything into it. Seeing that, there's no turning back when it's wrong. So, if we're not relying on predictions, how should we decide? Where did the importance come from in knowing ourselves? It's more about where we stand than trying to know. Where we stand in the investment landscape means...
To see if the current price is cheap or expensive in comparison. Given the current market values and the people involved, are they greedy? What I fear more in life is looking at the base. How strong are we in the current situation? A clearer comparison is instead of just sitting and watching your child.
A glass was used to predict whether there would be an earthquake next year. Have the house's foundation inspected to make sure it's strong enough to support the weight. Could there be tremors? We're guessing it's an earthquake. It can't collapse, but we can inspect and reinforce the foundation. In practice, there are simple methods that can be used immediately.
The next time you're about to make a decision about... The great one, citing the prophecy, should be labeled in one's mind as... This is an opinion, not a fact. Ask yourself two questions. The first question is, if the prediction is... This is wrong. How much damage will I suffer? (Question 2) What are some options that I can still reasonably succeed in?
Regardless of whether the prediction is right or wrong, for example, the owner... The original owner is continuing the business instead of expanding to two branches simultaneously. With the loan they're using, they might open one branch first. With the money already available, let's wait and see the results in 6 months.
The economy improved as he predicted, and he further expanded his forecast. Yes, if he doesn't get better, he's not seriously injured. This plan might be less profitable in the event of a false positive. The prediction was correct, but there's a high chance of survival in almost all cases. The same principle applies to full-time employees as a replacement.
I would resign immediately because I believe the prediction about my career. The original skill will disappear; you might start learning a new skill instead. Combine this with your current task for one hour a day if the prediction is correct. You have the skills to switch sides if the prediction is wrong.
You still have your old job and you've gained new skills. Going ahead with something that costs little to nothing—that kind of thinking isn't right. They want us to know the future, but they also want us to know more. We are prepared for many different future scenarios; this is what we want to emphasize.
Pause for a moment to reflect on your decision. It is based on speculation about what the future will be. However, it is based on the strength of something. What you currently have, this question helps to explain further. One perspective is why people consistently sit in the middle ground. Those who consistently perform well often go further than those who rise rapidly.
The top rankings represent a period of rising popularity. Predicting the future correctly once often tempts you to make another prediction. Next, with more confidence and a thousand baht. It grew bigger until one day, a wrong guess caused significant loss. If someone loses, the loss becomes significant, especially for those who didn't make a deposit.
Living life according to predictions doesn't guarantee a big win. I guessed correctly, but I didn't lose badly from guessing incorrectly. One very important thing is to be humble towards the future. It's not weakness, but the foundation of the cut. Enduring determination occurs when we accept that we don't know everything.
I'm going to stop wasting energy chasing after prophecies. Turn that energy towards building a foundation strong enough to... There are many ways to cope with the future, which is something... We have real control over our long-term investment journey. For more than half a century, Harvard Marks have...
He has three personal proverbs that he has chosen. Use all three points repeatedly, as if they were a lesson. To summarize everything we've discussed so far, here's the main point: That's what far-sighted people do from the start. Following the trend is often done at the end, meaning cutting ties. The same decision can yield increasingly different results.
With the rhythm People who buy good things when no one else is interested. Reasonable price for those who buy good quality items. Similarly, on the day everyone was scrambling for it, the price was... So expensive it became a bad purchase, like someone who... Buy 50 top stocks when their prices are soaring.
Number 2. Don't forget the 6-foot-tall man who drowned. While crossing a stream that averaged only 5 feet deep, This reminds us that we are not living average lives. But they must survive through the deepest point of the path. To achieve point number 3: Staying well ahead of time. Going too far seems no different from making this mistake.
It is the most honest limitation of all concepts. In the past, even if we thought at level 2, it would be perceived differently. Do you think an item is too expensive or too cheap? We have no way of knowing when the price will go up. Returning to true value might be next month. Or perhaps it will be many more years while we wait to see.
It's like making a mistake and needing patience. And there's enough space to wait when these three points are taken into account. Putting these together, you can see that everything is being discussed. The same story, viewed from different perspectives, is a success in... Long-term success doesn't come from being the first to win, but...
It comes from being someone who is still in the game when others are. While others have already lost, one figure reflects that. This idea is well-explained as an investment in debt. Of companies that are financially troubled or have gone bankrupt. The dissolution of Oak Tree generated an average return of approximately 23%.
This figure is the result, year after year, over a period of 28 years. Before deducting fees, and it can be done without taking out a loan. The increased funding has scaled up the investment, and this figure is interesting. Because it combines almost all the lessons in one place. The only way is to buy what most people consider to be.
Bad value for the low price; thinking differently from most people. It's a reasonable big deal that the selection process is unlikely to survive. Going out and not using the loan might lead to... One mistake can lead to disaster, but it's necessary. Let me emphasize here that this is the work of a professional organization.
Occupations with a team of specialized experts. Just because there's a lot of it doesn't mean the average person should invest in it. Troubled corporate debt doesn't necessarily mean... Those who follow these principles will get results. Instead of this level, what we can use is the principle. Thinking isn't just about numbers; all these principles will...
It has become something that is actually applicable in the lives of working people. How? The answer lies with the investors. This is called a safety margin; it's a placement. The plan leaves room for mistakes. And then there were unexpected events involving money. A safety margin is a reserve fund for emergencies.
Emergency Many people aim for essential expenses around... 3-6 months, but the optimal number depends on... With regard to income stability and individual obligations. Homes of people who still have high-interest debt or low income. If your finances aren't sufficient, you might need to start by reducing your expenses and saving.
Start small and consult with experts. Financial or mediating agencies. Debt restructuring is also an option worth considering. There's nothing to be ashamed of regarding having extra work. Safety means not relying on a single skill. Hiring too many people or clients and... Maintain good relationships with people in your field.
On days when help isn't needed yet. Regarding decisions about safety margins. It means not investing everything into one option. Being independent and knowing in advance that if something is wrong, you will back off. How does this relate to health and extra time? Safety means not pushing your body to its limits.
Every day and not having a tightly structured schedule is fine. The gap is due to unexpected events on that day. For example, a child gets sick, an urgent work matter comes up, or someone in the household is sick. We need someone who leaves no room for error. The most important thing must be eliminated immediately, as long as those who have it...
The reserved space will be able to handle the situation without causing... Other parts of my life collapsed as well, so that I could take it away. It's easy to use; all the previous lessons are summarized here. Four questions used to check the decision. It's as big as a four-layered fortress working together.
The first disaster, the price I had to pay... The money, time, and resources spent are reasonable. Regarding the second point about the value to be gained, if a person... Most people think the same way I do, wondering what will happen. Here's step 3, if you're not lucky. The opposite and the worst-case scenario that happens.
If it really comes to this, will I still be able to survive and move on? Point 4. This decision rests with... How much can I predict the future, and if my prediction is wrong, what will I do? How much damage would it cause if we went back to those two people? Let's start working together at the beginning of this story.
Now you understand why some people never get a ranking. 1. After about a year, he/she reached a position that was highly regarded. The unexpected person wasn't any luckier, and neither was he. He's superior in every aspect, but he never pays a high price. Going too far for temporary victory, never truly understood.
It's a misconception that luck is the key; skill never leads to falling into a pit. Too deep to climb out, and a place where one should never entrust their life. With just one prediction, the person who stands out is... It wasn't his fault from the start that he was talented, but he was just playing the game.
Having to win big every time while living a personal life. Big games are often decided by mistakes. Another feature that should be given equal weight is... Always play a safe role with humility. I acknowledge that we may be wrong in thinking that the world is random. And the fact that no one knows the future doesn't make us look...
Being weak makes us plan more honestly. A humble person always leaves room for others, while a snobbish person... Overconfidence often leads to using up all the available space. Because I thought it wasn't necessary, and to be honest, This concept may not be suitable for everyone. If you're looking for a quick riches formula or a way to get into trouble...
Market timing for short-term profit: Telling it all might seem too slow and boring. And if you can't stand seeing others get ahead... When everything is going well, travel like this... This will be very difficult mentally; this is not a flaw. It's someone else's problem, but it's something one should be aware of beforehand.
Choosing this path doesn't mean setting a goal. Is being tall wrong, or are people who want to be? One must always fall; some people know the conditions. And there's enough space to play the winner's game. True, but only for most people who have responsibilities. The family had limited savings and no opportunities.
Starting over multiple times, the choice was never wrong. The biggest path might be the one that takes you the furthest. To be honest, changing the way of thinking... This takes time; you might feel it's slower at first. Others may see their friends achieving spectacular results in... While you are still walking cautiously, knowledge is key.
Wearing it is normal and doesn't mean you are. If you've gone the wrong way, what can help is measuring the distance. My progress compared to myself last year. Before comparing yourself to someone who is rising in the rankings, Briefly, they asked how much savings I had this year. Has my skill improved, and can I avoid...?
Is it possible to avoid a major mistake if the word... The answer is yes, you are on the right track if... If you want us to start with just one thing, please choose to cut. There's one important decision that's still on your mind. Right now, it might be about work or money. When it comes to business, it's best to write it down before making a decision.
Write down the answer to question 3 on a piece of paper: if... The worst-case scenario that actually happens. Can you continue, and if not, how will you adjust? What's the plan to achieve this if this helps? You have a clearer view of your own decisions. (Thumbs up) Keep it in mind as encouragement, and if you want to understand more...
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