저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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마이크론 CEO가 회계연도 현 분기를 바닥으로 확정하면서 반도체 사이클 반전이 임박했다는 판단이 핵심이다. 마이크론 CEO의 신뢰도가 높아 그의 바닥 선언을 근거로 반도체 관련주를 매수할 수 있다는 논리다. 마이크론 CEO Sanjay Mehrotra는 이전에도 솔직하게 나쁜 실적을 인정했고, 주가 하락 시 자사주를 매입해 말과 행동이 일치했다고 평가된다. 그가 현 분기를 'trough(바닥)'로 명확히 밝혔다는 점이 강조된다. 마이크론 실적 발표 후 낸드 플래시 타이트함이 언급됐고, 이는 웨스턴디지털(WDC)에도 긍정적 파급효과가 있을 것으로 봤다. WDC는 올해 약 60% 상승했지만 과거 사이클 전환 때 주가 58달러에서 100달러 이상까지 올랐던 점을 근거로 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 주장한다. 반도체 장비주 램리서치와 어플라이드머티리얼즈도 긍정적이나, 램리서치는 이미 S&P500 내 강세 종목이라 과열 주의가 언급됐다. 데이터센터 확대 흐름에서 AMD와 엔비디아가 수혜주로 꼽혔고, 아직 상승 여력이 더 있을 수 있다고 봤다. 5G 확산으로 스카이웍스 등 반도체 및 셀타워(아메리칸타워, 크라운캐슬, SBA커뮤니케이션즈) 종목도 주목 대상이다. 인텔의 칩 생산 문제가 PC 수요 둔화의 원인이라는 분석과 함께, 경쟁사 AMD 매수 근거로 제시됐다. 반면 페덱스는 신뢰도 부족으로 실적 악화 시 주가 충격이 크다는 사례로 소개됐다. 다든레스토랑(올리브가든)은 경영 실수로 실적이 부진했으나 소비 자체는 견조하다고 평가하며, 치폴레 매수 의견을 제시했다. 마지막으로 오라클 관련 개인 질문에 대해서는 실적 발표 후 주가가 흔히 하락 후 상승하는 패턴이 있다고 답했다. 전반적으로 IPO 시장과 제약 가격 이슈 등 후속 방송 예고도 있었다.
다듬은 글
I'd be one hing since entertainment educating teachers call me one eight hundred seven fourteen CBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer read-throughs so much of successful investing is about read-throughs dissecting the less obvious pin action when a company reports earnings after a strong day 138 points us to be advanced point four five percent guys that climb point six ever said you know what I want to go over the best brief through the session why don't we start with the commentary surrounding the excellent work but Mike Ron as the commodity semiconductor make reported some truly terrific numbers last night you know what they did they called the bottom in the semiconductor space now we know micro we've had CEO Sanjeev Arora right let's show several times I spoke to him on squawk on the street right through reported his last quarter why is this tough matter because if you're going to get a useful read through that can actually help you make money you didn't be able to believe the words that are coming out of the see us math otherwise it's all just bladder Sanjay is money good with me he's been a straight shooter every quarter about both the good the bad he didn't hesitate to tell us things weren't that great not that long ago but he also pointed out that micron was going to cut back on production to bring inventories damn clean line who a more reasonable level and after the stock sold off the spring he said he would be buying the stock back his own stock handover which is exactly what he did because it had gotten too cheap in his eyes not only did he talk the talk he also walked the walk all right we've established that where are the read-throughs from micron square they can help you make some money in other stocks not just micron itself although remember I do think that it's a terrific buy right here once the cycle turns for these commodity semiconductor means similar companies and meaning once the prices for these products start going higher and the or at least the rate of price degradation slows the first one is NaN the second one is do um well you know what you're usually at the beginning of a fabulous multiyear multi-month not five ten fifteen dollar multi-year business cycle with tremendous games I'm bringing this up because Sanjay has some very bullish things to say on the conference call the key line I quote we are calling fiscal cue to as the trough in other words he said the current quarter is going to mark the bottom and this next one is when you have to buy so you got a trustworthy CEO making a crystal clear bottom cold with no hemming and hawing just a naked cold shot that left zero doubt that he believes the nadir is at hand that means it's just it is just soon enough to take action in other semiconductor stocks that could benefit but aren't up as much or didn't seem to people didn't seem to realize should be part of their portfolio or at least part of the read-through but before I get into the positive pin action you need to understand let's Le'Veon Bell by the way he did that you have to understand why management's credibility is so important because lots of CEOs make bottom calls yeah they say it is since bottom here is bottom there and they are often wrong the other day FedEx reporter to a disastrous quarter and this company has become a serial disappoint and its stock has been obliterated magazine talked about how the environment the environment had gotten difficult and that's why it's so hard to forecast so you might think it'd be really readily negative read through for UPS yet for all they're in the same business nope few investors trust FedEx these days so there was barely any negative panache some UPS yeah it stock went out of hair but it's been able to bounce FedEx also called the bottom when it's called but they have no credibility whatsoever no one believes them or the stock never would have been hit so hard on the news my crime is different my crime is credible so what can we buy off a Sanjay's bottom call first the company said there was a definitive tightness in flash memory their second most important business line who else makes flash memory was Western Digital of course WDC else makes disk drives that's a crummy business but I think the turnip micron stroma the Western Digital can continue its march hire sox already rallied nearly sixty percent for the year including 2.7 percent today i'm betting it's just gotten started because i know my history in the past when the cycles turned as i think it has this $58.00 stock has rally through $100 its hit those wealthy levels twice in the last five years twice when the cycle turn i think Western additional to do it again more generally when you're starting start hearing about a bottom anywhere in the seven doctor space that tends to be good news for the seven conductor capital equipment stocks like lamb research and Applied Materials both are positive but remember lamb is anticipated that it's one of the strongest stocks in the entire S&P so don't go crazy with lamb also it's one of the strongest talks from doing that piece as I said about the impeachment however what's really however what's really driving my crunch strength is digitisation itself as companies move through the cloud and meet the store as much data as possible in big warehouses full of servers when you think data center you should be thinking AMD and NVIDIA both of these talks have been red-hot but even after the recent runs you know what I think to have upset more upside may be much more upside Mike when starting to see the pull of 5g that pole should boost sky work solutions you know I like that companies well-run cuervo marvel technologies that shouldn't that's not to be 28 it will also boost the cell tower stocks and we saw some of that panache today American tower crown castle SBA communications now I know these names rant so there's no real hurry but you know what you gotta pull the trigger if they do come down here's an interesting one my dad said pcs could be soft but it's not because of demand it's because Intel's is still having trouble making ships now you know has them Intel's main competitor AMD another reason to buy and micron told us the spending on demand for chips to power know from our trip to San Francisco that Nvidia is already they're making chips to even understand inference they know your idiom another reason to own the stock of it finally let's just say who's using these data centers where micron says demand is accelerating well that would most likely be Facebook it alphabet alphabet by the way touches about a third of all Internet commerce these stocks to have been smoking hot of late let's just call it confirmation now that's what a read-through is okay so let's let's flip it let's talk about a negative read through all right something that happened today that made you shudder and think hold it wait a second maybe I'm too bullish this morning Darden reported a light quarter with their corporate being their main business Olive Garden stock I slam look like it would take the whole restaurant Co work with it given the pervasive presence of the bargain Italian chain hey it was natural presume because it's change so popular that the consumer must be pulling our horse that something's wrong maybe even stay at home some of their being sick with a monster quarter from ConAgra a toll stay at home dining out look double talk about later but once the conference call started you learned that it wasn't that it wasn't a man you learned it the week numbers were self-inflicted Geely the normally bankable Darden CEO told a story of poor promotion and sloppy execution once the company aborted ill-advised plans change this promotion promotions and got back an even peel here what happened the customers came right the granularity the gene gave us about the cadence of the quarter how progressed as is called told us the things were right with the world of course Darden has to go deep big time into the penalty box which is why it stopped fell seven dollars twenty eight cents or six point two percent and Gino emphasized that consumers are out there bargain hunting for great food they can eat at the restaurant or at home once the demand versus execution issue was cleared up it was obvious that the consumer still dining out so to me the takeaway is once again I could never never overthink these things people what do you buy you buy the stock of Chipotle I know when 800 doesn't seem like a bargain but the foods a bargain is in the stocks a bargain do not overthink it I think you should continue to buy the stock remember we just pull up with them a couple of weeks ago they're good to death now the usual cabinets here you never just buy any of these stocks these realtors are all starting points at my old hedge fund I'd assign each analyst one of these to go to work on break them down try to sell it to me I know that's hard for people at home but the bottom line now you at least know what a read-through means and if you've got the time you can do the same analysis yourself to identify overlooked ugly ducklings that might down the road turn into beautiful swans we're going to add them in Nebraska Adam well mr.
Kramer thank you for taking my call and everything you do for us oh sure thank you buddy I am looking for a dr. Kramer education here could my stock is Oracle orcl I've been doing my homework on it and it's been kind of boring after earnings however yesterday there were 280 thousand plus shares bought shortly after clothes mostly in one big order of two hundred and twenty thousand shares and today after close there was a four hundred twenty thousand dollar by just minutes after clothes that these could be program related looking at the trade it could be a match up with something else I will tell you that I thought the quarter was okay the stock got hit too hard off of an OK quarter the process of Oracle has been this reports a quarter people don't really like it goes down then it just spends the next few months going up then reports the quarter goes down I mean it's okay I mean it looks like the Alps I mean but it's not the matter run them alright successful investing is about three fruits dissecting the less obvious pin action and then cool identify overlooked winters that way tonight what's the stop some ConAgra right in and Viacom CBS all have in common then the IPO market is had Boyd in history year them going through some of the downtown high profile names see if they're worth buying into the new year and I'm sitting down with the CEO of emerging flower solutions discuss the opioid drug crisis and the fight over drug pricing so stay with flavo
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