저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 오늘의 급락은 과열 조정으로 보이며, 조정은 매수 기회라는 낙관적 시각. 오늘 하락 평가: 36% 반등 후 조정이 다소 과도했을 수 있다는 판단. 오늘 하락폭은 6개월 내 최대 수준. VIX 해석: VIX가 1.29% 급등해 역대 51번째로 큰 상승(상위 1% 수준). 투자자들이 헤지 수요를 늘리는 신호로, 보통 단기 저점의 징후라고 설명. 향후 전망: 1주일·1개월 뒤 수익률이 양호했던 과거 패턴을 근거로, 1주일 뒤 상승 확률이 높다고 주장. 상승 근거 3가지: AI 혁신, 블록체인(토큰화) 확산, 연준의 금리 인하 사이클 시작. 중국과의 희토류 분쟁은 이 구조적 상승 요인을 훼손하지 않는다고 봄. 단기 변수: 금요일·긴 연휴 영향으로 장이 저점에서 마감할 가능성을 언급. 다만 금요일에 바닥이 잘 형성되지 않아 월요일이 추가 하락(플러시)일 수 있고, 그 하락이 매수 기회라는 견해. 리스크: 중국 추가 갈등 등 추가 악재가 확대되면 전망이 달라질 수 있음을 인정.
다듬은 글
All right, so let's bring in another big macro market voice. You know him, Tom Lee, co-founder, head of research at Fund Strat. Tom, it's only one day. It's all we we get it. We're still the bull market we heard earlier still intact. But your take on today's move and what may lie ahead. Uh well, Brian, you know, it's um it may be overdue to an extent.
You know, we've had a nice rise of 36% since the April lows, and I I believe today's decline is the biggest in more than 6 months. Um, but it's good to see the VIX spike. You know, the VIX spiked at 1.29% today. That's the 51st largest ever spike in the VIX. So, we're a top 1% move in sort of what I'd say the market seeking safety.
And and so, I think it's a good flush that's happening today. I I would like to say the market is uh you know concerned but uh as your other guests have said especially Rick I mean unless there is a a real structural change this pullback is a buying opportunity. Wow. 51st biggest move for the VIX. So you why is it good that the VIX is responding?
What does that signal? It shows you that investors are seeking protection. Um and and and you know as you know the VIX is a measure of expected volatility of the largest 100 stocks and so a spike in the VIX is really a market saying okay I I need to get out of everything but I can't sell everything so let me hedge it by buying volatility and that is usually a sign of an interim low.
I mean, I don't want to say I I think markets have are bottoming today, but we know that the forward returns are pretty good one month and even one week later. So, I would say if someone says, "Are we higher a week from today?" I'm going to say the odds are actually really good. We're, you know, we might even be 60 points higher.
Well, wow. But that that and that's happened. That's what's been happening as we talked about earlier in the show, Tom, that we've seen these buy the dip buyers come into the market. You know, we get a day like today, the dip buyers come in, we're higher a week later. Do you expect that to happen again absent some further escalation with China?
Yeah, I mean, anything's possible, Ryan. you know, and I think that we we the markets lived through this February to April and it was a day by day and day by day panic and maybe there's echoes of trauma people are are thinking about and uh and we do know that this um you know these are important issues.
So I I wouldn't want to be glib and saying hey this is nothing uh because the market is making a big move. But to me, if I said, okay, what are the reasons stocks have been attractive for the past 12 months, you know, it's been about the innovation coming from AI and it's the innovation as Wall Street looks onto the blockchain and now it's the Fed that's beginning an easing cycle.
These three things have uh structural tailwinds that aren't disrupted because of potential even rare earth dispute with China. Do you want to see the market not end on its lows? We're not on our lows right now. Well, you know, it's Friday. Uh so, and it's a long weekend, so as you know, a lot of people um like to shut down their computers.
So, I I wouldn't be surprised if we might see the market close on its lows. But to me, I I don't think it's a signal. As you know, markets rarely bottom on Fridays anyways. So, maybe Monday is the flush. But then you know that's the that's the buying opportunity.
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