Jeremy Siegel: Index investors can do well despite economy that's facing challenges

요약 보기

Siegel은 현 시장을 1999년과 같다고 보지 않는다. 선행 P/E는 S&P500 전체 약 23배, 메그7 제외 약 19.5배로 2000년 고점(약 30배)보다 낮고, 금리도 당시가 높았다(당시 10년물 TIPS 4% 이상 vs 현재 1.7%). 시장은 AI 관련 소수 종목이 주도하며 월가와 메인스트리트의 괴리가 커지고 있다. 그럼에도 인덱스 투자자는 경제 도전에도 계속 잘 될 수 있다고 본다. 정부 셧다운, 관세의 4분기 홀리데이 판매 영향, 소비심리 악화가 우려 요인이다. 경제 성장률은 3.8%가 아닌 2%대 중반으로 보며, 소비는 고소득층 중심이고 하위 50%의 소비는 부진하다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. All right, so let's take that in two parts, Professor. The idea that he says, quote, "It feels exactly like 1999." Do you agree? Uh no, I I don't agree. Uh I mean, and and Tom he was talking about forward P/E ratios. Forward P/E ratios on the S&P including mag seven are about 23. Uh if you exclude the mag seven, uh you're you're down to about 19, 19 and 1/2.

02. Uh back uh then at peak in 2000, they were 30 going forward. Um and uh the uh uh the interest rates were much higher. In fact, back then you could buy 10-year TIPS, uh Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, get over 4%. Today, get 1.7%. I mean, the alternatives are not anywhere near as good. No, I mean, it you know, some people say we're like 1997, which it was in December of '97 that Alan Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance.

03. Um and then the market kept on soaring in '98, '99, and it did not peak until it reached crazy levels in 2000, and we are not at those levels. The second part, of course, of of Paul's point, and maybe the the most salient one to my next question in our conversation is, "Yeah, it feels exactly like '99, but I'm paraphrasing, of course.

04. I'm no dummy. What I mean, you saw what happened from October of '99 until the spring of 2000, so why wouldn't you be positioned for a much higher stock market from here? Is that how you see it as well? Lean into this market cuz we're going to have a big big upside from here?" I mean, yeah, I mean, absolutely.

05. I mean, I mean, the momentum is a very powerful factor, and and the momentum is there. I I I do want people to understand, and it's been said before, but I I think it it bears listening to. You know, Wall Street and Main Street are not the same. We were talking about how strong is the economy, should the Fed cut?

06. Um I think the gap between Main Street and Wall Street is getting greater and greater. Um and uh uh you know, you you have AI pushing, you know, a group of stocks that is 25 to 30% of the the AI hires uh employs about 1% or 1 and 1/2% of of the US workforce. Um and all the other companies that aren't really doing very much are, you know, employing the other 90%.

07. So, I mean, we we we have a big gap, I think, between these two, and and AI can continue to soar. An indexed investor can continue continue to do well, even though the economy, I think, is facing some challenges. First of all, government shutdown, I, you know, uh don't want it to last much longer, and I still think we have a question of how those tariffs might affect uh Q4 holiday sales coming up, how much price increases might deter uh individuals.

08. I I think it's a mix between, you know, uh government shutdown, negative sentiment, and we are going to get sentiment tomorrow. That's not a government uh number of the University of Michigan. So, I I I I I say that we have to be cognizant of the fact that uh economy, stock market, yeah, there's a big link, uh but there's also a gap.

09. Well, I mean, I mean, this was what I was discussing with Stephanie Link, who made the point earlier on the program, whether you heard it or not, I'm not sure, that the economy is still strong, and so is the consumer. So, we should be focusing more on that. There aren't as many concerns as some would like you to believe.

10. It sounds like you disagree with that. Well, no, I we we have strong investment, we strong strong AI investment. I don't think we're going to get the 3.8 on GDP. I think it's going to be in the mid-twos, but a lot of that's investment, and we we also know that the consumption of the high end uh uh you know, the more better-off individuals, because their stock market is doing great, their Bitcoins are doing great, property values are still up, they're spending.

11. Uh the spending is pretty lackluster on the bottom half. So, you know, when you say strength of consumer spending, you have to talk about which consumer you're talking about.