저자: Matt Pocius on Tesla Stock & Money · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라가 텍사스 포트워스를 새 로보택시 도시로 공식 발표했다. 3개월 만의 첫 신규 도시 확장이며, 포트워스는 댈러스 광역권에 속한다는 설명이 붙었다. 텍사스 DMV 등록 현황에 따르면 로보택시 네트워크에는 모델 Y 124대가 추가 등록되어 총 2,004대가 되었고, 이는 웨이모보다 55대 적은 수치다. 이후 모델 Y 40대가 더 등록되면서 총 2,244대가 되었으며, 텍사스에서 웨이모와의 차이는 15대로 줄었다고 전해졌다. 주가는 1% 상승 마감했다. 같은 날 나스닥은 1.39%, 기술주 섹터는 약 2.5% 하락했으므로, 시장 흐름에 비추어 보면 상대적 강세로 해석되었다. 스페이스X도 1.22% 올랐다고 전해졌다. 오스틴 서비스 지역 밖 남서쪽과 북쪽 교통 카메라에서 사이버캡 목격 건수가 늘었다는 관찰도 소개되었다. 현재 무감독 로보택시 서비스는 오스틴, 휴스턴, 포트워스, 댈러스, 마이애미, 올랜도, 탬파 7개 도시에서 운영된다고 한다. 텍사스 내 서비스 면적은 테슬라 751제곱마일, 웨이모 307제곱마일로 비교되었다. 차량 구성에서는 사이버캡보다 모델 Y 비중이 높다는 점이 화제가 되었다. 발표자는 사이버캡용 FSD가 오스틴에 특화되어 있을 가능성을 언급하며, 당분간 확장 지역에서는 모델 Y가 더 쉽다고 설명했다. 요금 비교에서는 휴스턴 기준 약 35~40분 탑승에 테슬라 약 20달러, 웨이모 30달러대라는 보도가 인용되었고, 우버와의 마일당 요금과 대기 시간도 비교되었다. 다만 이는 발표자의 개인 관찰과 해석을 포함한 내용이다. 충전 측면에서는 웨이모 차량이 남부 캘리포니아 공공 충전소를 점유해 불만이 나왔다는 LA 타임스 보도가 소개되었고, 테슬라는 기존 슈퍼차저 네트워크와 빠른 설치 능력을 강점으로 꼽았다. 그 밖에도 옵티머스 예약 관련 혼선, 테슬라 세미의 프랑스 공개 행사, 스페이스X 컴퓨트 클러스터 확장 계획(GB300 GPU 약 42만 개, 12월 가동 예정), Starlink 모바일 확장 협의, Anthropic의 컴퓨트 약정 규모 등이 함께 다뤄졌다. 합병 가능성과 주주총회 일정도 언급되었으나, 모두 발표자의 해석과 전망이 섞인 내용으로 확정된 사실이 아니다.
다듬은 글
Tesla just confirmed big news. Tesla officially announced a new Robbo taxi city, the first new city expansion in three months. Actually, specifically, it's Fort Worth in Texas. For those outside the US, this is basically the metropolitan area of Dallas. And there's actually more good news that was just announced.
And there's a lot of news today actually. So, we'll go through everything. But Tesla just added more robot hacks to its network this time. Specifically, Tesla added 124 Model Y vehicles to the Tesla's DMV. So, not cyber caps, but Model Y's. So, that number put us at,2004 vehicles, just 55 vehicles behind Whimo.
So, that was Friday night. And yesterday, Tesla added 40 more Model Y's to the Texas DMV. Tesla removed two cyber cabs, though. And the total is now sitting at,244, just 15 vehicles behind Whimo in Texas. So, Whimo, anytime now, we are going to pass you in the number of vehicles in Texas. We are so close.
And so today, Tesla stock closed exactly 1% higher, which doesn't sound like that much, but when you look at the markets and see NASDAQ down 1.39% and then the tech sector down about 2.5%, which would normally make Tesla stock at least 3% in the same direction, down if the stock would have been down 3% and now it's up 1%, it's like the stock went up 4% today.
So that's I think really good news. And SpaceX is also up 1.22%. There's some big news about SpaceX also. So, I'll go through all of the news and if you like seeing Tesla stock up and me delivering you the daily updates, make sure to click the like button right now. Subscribe and hit the high button as well if that's available to you.
And there's definitely something brewing here. Cyber caps are showing up more and more outside Tesla's Austin service area on Southwest Austin traffic cameras outside the boundary. One sighting the week of September 28th and 33 last week. That's a lot more sighting. So almost certainly Tesla is going to expand in this area.
And there's people commenting that yes indeed they did see these cyber caps. And then North Austin 2 engineering cyber cap sightings on traffic cameras north of Tesla service area went from zero last week in early October to 27 last week. Definitely a big change also. So there's definitely an expansion that's coming in Austin.
And Tesla's unsupervised robot taxi service is now available in seven cities as of today. We got Austin, Houston. Houston is almost as big in the serviceable area as Austin, by the way. Fort Worth, Dallas, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa. And here's how Tesla's robo taxi zones compared to Whimos in Texas specifically.
So in Austin, Tesla's already bigger. Houston bigger. San Antonio, Tesla is not there yet, but Whimo is, but Tesla is working on launching there as well. Then Dallas, Tesla's area is a little bit bigger. And Fort Worth, Whimo is not even there. And if you look at the total square miles, Tesla is at 751 and Whimo is at 307.
Tesla did this in 17 months for Whimo. It took 11 years to do this in Texas. Anyway, overall investors are definitely celebrating all this news, all the expansion and the robot taxis added to the network. This is one of the first Tesla robot taxi rides in Fort Worth, uh, Texas, unsupervised in a Model Y.
It's interesting though that Tesla specifically added Model Y's to the fleet, not Cyber Caps. But Omar points out that Cyber Cab is only in one city right now and in that city there are way more Cyber Cabs than Model Y's. So the Cyber Cab is probably the FSD version for Cyber Cab is more optimized for Austin specifically.
So it's easier to expand in other areas with Model Y's for now. James also finds it kind of surprising that the Model Y percentage of Robbo tax fleet is so high. he would have assumed something closer to 8020 cyber cab. I think the bigger the fleet gets, the higher the percentage of cyber cab over time.
He predicts that for sure of course is going to happen. You'll only really have model wise in areas where you have a lot of people that want to ride all together. So you got let's say three passengers, but we know that most rides are single passenger rides. So Tesla doesn't really need to have many Model Y's to to cover the trips of more than two passengers.
Of course, one of the solutions to that is if you have four people in a group that need a ride, you just call two cyber caps. But if it's a group, usually people don't like splitting into different groups. It's a lot more fun to go in one car. Rides with two passengers and less. That's basically 90% of all rides.
And check this out. Getting close to beating Uber on price and weight time. Specifically in Austin, I reported before in Houston it was cheaper to take a robot taxi from Tesla than for Whimo. And the difference was quite substantial. Tesla was like $20 and Whimo was like 30 something for a ride that was about very roughly speaking over 35 minutes long.
I think about 40 minutes. But that was Whimo versus Tesla. This is Tesla versus Uber. To get Uber X you pay about $4.38 per mile with Serap $4.90. Model Y $4.40. These are basically averages. Average wait time for Cybercap 10 minutes. a bit long, but that's going to come down and it is coming down. Model Y 7 minutes, Uber X 8 minutes.
So, for now, you pay more to ride in a robot taxi. And people prefer a robot taxi overall because there's no person in the car that's going to listen to your phone conversations or judge you if you want the car much cooler or warmer or look at you weird if you have to cough or something. And Tesla is starting to have a rather substantial presence in Austin.
And despite that, the prices are still higher than Ubers. Although I would like to point out one thing. UberX, from my experience with UberX in Houston specifically, these are often not the nicest cars. Whereas all these Model Y and cyber cabs, they are basically for practical purposes brand new. So, it might actually almost make sense to compare Uber Black maybe or whatever the next version above Uber X is.
And that would be probably perhaps a better comparison. But that's substantially more expensive than Uber X. Probably a more fair comparison perhaps between Uber X here and these Model Y and Cyber Caps would be if these Cyber Caps and Model Y were already maybe like 5 years old or something. In Austin specifically, Uber X cars must be 10 years old or newer.
Oh, but in Houston that can go up to 15 years old. So that's probably what my experience was like after I got one of these older cars. I was like, "Okay, I'm not using UberX. I'm going to upgrade." And this is actually good news for Tesla. Someone said, "I noticed yesterday night that as demand went down, Uber was quicker to lower prices while Tesla robot taxi still lingered on the higher prices.
This has been the case for all major surge events. They raise the price on time, but the price is going down afterwards is slower. And I say it's good news because it's simple supply and demand. Far fewer available Tesla robot taxis than available Ubers for each of their respective levels of demand.
But also, people prefer these robot taxis, it appears, over Ubers because the total number of rides basically available to consumers. That whole number should push Tesla's pricing down too, but it doesn't really work that way as of right now. Meaning that people really prefer to go in a robot taxi, at least for now.
There's still some novelty, of course. But also, there's definitely some people that are still a little bit wary of robot taxis and you know, they may not trust it yet, but definitely we want to see what happens to price of robot taxi as Tesla keeps adding cars. That will be the real tell for the robot taxi strategy roll out.
Now with Veos, another big problem that they have is charging and Tesla is not really going to have this problem. Veo robot taxis are drawing growing complaints for crowding public EV charging stations in Southern California. According to the LA Times, some EV owners in San Diego have reported waiting 30 minutes to an hour because of Whimo vehicles occupying chargers.
In one case, Whimo vehicles took up three of the four available charging stalls. Whimo says it plans to expand its dedicated charging infrastructure, but as robot taxi fleets grow, charging capacity will become an increasingly important operational challenge. And of course, for Tesla, Tesla already has a bigger charging network already built out and Tesla can build new superchargers really fast.
Now, of course, there's a bit of permitting and all of that involved depending on jurisdiction. it's easier or harder like in Texas it's is definitely going to be easier but Tesla can physically install and deploy a prefabricated supercharger station in as little as 4 to 8 days once construction begins on site so supercharging is really not going to be a problem but of course there's permitting and approvals that can take some time depending on the area between weeks and months but the slower part is utility grid hookup and energization where the primary bottleneck is the local power company however in theory If it really became a big problem, Tesla could just build solar panels next to new supercharging stations, put a few mega packs there and boom, you got charging in sunny places.
That would work okay. I mean, you can get it done fast if that becomes somehow a limiting factor to expand the whole robot taxi network. Also, over the weekend, Tesla posted this. Make good decisions this weekend. Take a robot taxi home. What are these effects? That's apparently people who think cyber caps are on LSD or some or something.
And then Rachel Jones, who is a tech reporter for the San Francisco standard on Friday, she posted that Tesla is opening up reservations for it humanoid robot Optimus in early December per a source. However, Elon Musk replied to that with a no. I wonder where did this mixup come from or if it's actually going to go somewhere and then Elon just decided no.
Oh, and then the Tesla Semi is heading to France for its first public showing in the country. We know that the Tesla Semi is currently being mass-produced already in the US and clearly Tesla wants to enter the European market as well. Then there were some things said about going after Elon and even nationalizing SpaceX, but the current president said that he will protect Elon Musk and also I think threats like that are one reason why Elon Musk will be giving away SpaceX shares.
He also posted Tesla and SpaceX have created meaningful wealth for hundreds of thousands of employees over time and improved the retirement savings of hundreds of millions of people. And that's largely because basically every major index owns Tesla. Tesla went up a lot. These indexes go up a little bit more too.
And basically everyone owns an index like S&P 500 or similar. And certainly Tesla stock made a lot of Tesla stock investors rich who were able to stay strong enough to hold it through bad times. And as they say, mind over body, right? Well, this guy is using only his mind power to drive the wheelchair with his Neurolink N1 implant.
It's amazing. And then check this out. This is why the SpaceX Grogbot is doing so well. Jason from the Allen podcast is spending about 40,000 a year on tokens and subscriptions from Entropic Lovable Grogbot, 11 Labs, and a long tale of other products and getting about $2 million in value. He says, "We've automated at least seven full-time jobs at this point while becoming 100% faster at the average task we do." If you haven't used the last 90 days worth of products for at least 30 hours a week, you have no idea how profound this software is.
The last 90 days, things have changed more than in the last 2 years. Many of the things I spent hours on last year now take minutes and the results are mind-blowing. And then Elon made a huge prediction here. Future super intelligence compute will obviously be overwhelmingly in space. By overwhelmingly I mean that it will round up to 100%.
You have to be an utter not to realize this. In the meantime, she says, "Looking at how fast and quick Tesla is expanding and adding robot taxis to their fleet and cities is conflicting me in buying more Tesla stock versus SpaceX stock. Personally, my position in Tesla is much larger than SpaceX right now.
not by preference but simply because I don't want to sell my Tesla stock to buy SpaceX stock because of tax reasons and things like that. So personally all I am buying lately is just SpaceX stock and I'm very bullish on both obviously. Then ideally these two companies merge and then I don't need to worry about any tax consequence of my Tesla stock.
And then this is some good insight. Once Tesla connects two geoence robot taxi cities, commuting between them will unlock insane ham. On top of that, Tesla will be the first company to ever do such a thing. And Tesla is now hiring self-driving data collection supervisors in 37 US cities across 20 states up from 26 cities in 12 states a week ago.
Now we know the next round of cities that have already been revealed and that's Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, and San Antonio. The round after that is likely to be markets where Whimo is either already in commercial operations or in testing. And the next round after that all other major metropolitan areas in the US.
The latest listings included Lewisville, Cincinnati, Columbus, Oklahoma City, Glenn Allen, Tessen. You know, maybe soon we will have announcements with multiple cities being basically opened all at once. Check this out. James is now extremely bullish about SpaceX. I actually hope they bring SpaceX stock below $100.
Would be a generational leak buying opportunity. He's not, of course, counting on it, but he would like it. There's also a report from Piper Sandler and they believe a merger between Tesla and SpaceX is more likely than not. And then Sawyer posted that Eli has unveiled the names of SpaceX's two new supercomputer clusters that are coming soon which will bring online an additional $35 billion worth of GPUs.
One is Gun Range late December very fast and then another one spam December also very fast. That's 420,000 Nvidia GB300's GPUs between them. SpaceX is absolutely cooking with how quickly they're putting up these new clusters. And macro harder and mini hard both have 220,000 GB300s with 800 gig next configured for training.
Gun range will have the same spam used to house. Aha. So that's why it's called spam. It used to house these spam products. We'll have 200k GB300's but configured for inference. So much simpler networking and less than half the fiber. I walked the whole Colossus 2 side around midnight and again this morning.
Good progress by the SpaceX team and contractors. Gun range is tracking to be operational by end of November and spam in December. And macro harder takes up about 810,000 square ft. Mini hard is about 312,000. And CER predicted that it packs in a lot more compete despite the far smaller footprint. And we learned that basically it's the same compete but the footprint is much smaller in one.
And so mini hard is a product one that keeps evolving like everything Tesla and SpaceX build and it's evolving fast but people will see the rate of build and install and operation and still doubt the 2027 guided numbers. The 2027 guide is probably actually conservative and then Sawyer posted that he finds himself getting more and more bullish on SpaceX by the week.
the technologies they have developed, the rapid pace of deployment, and their manufacturing capabilities are so far ahead that is actually wild. The company's only at a 1.8 trillion market cap. If Elon's predictions for compute deployments and revenue growth actually materialize next year and beyond, SpaceX is extremely undervalued right now.
Even if Elon is off by 50% on the low end of his projected 500 to1 trillion dollar annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2027, that would still mean $250 billion. Pretty damn good. And of course, all this is before nextG Starling mobile and orbital compute really get going. And then check this out.
So this guy sells data center capacity and is asked, "Why are you so bullish on SpaceX putting compute in space?" And he explains that the demand for compute is so insane and power availability is so constrained that I don't view spacebased comput as a threat to terrestrial data centers at all. We are turning away customers looking for megawatt of power almost daily.
There's so much demand right now that it's generally difficult to fathom unless you're seeing it firsthand. I've never seen anything like it. And so Sawyer says, "I think AI compute costs per watt prices are going to stay elevated a lot longer than many people expect. Less than 5% of US consumers even pay a subscription for an AI product with some putting the estimate at less than 2%.
People are clearly finding Rockbot to be very useful because SpaceX just had to significantly cut back usage capacity due to overwhelming demand which they did this over this last weekend where everyone usage immediately was basically just doubled. So if you had let's say 40% left immediately in 1 second it was set to 80%.
But we are still so early in the AI adoption curve and in the last 3 months more changed than in the last 2 years. Existing users are going to eat up significantly more compute as models get better and agents start handling increasingly complex tasks and jobs. Inference will increasingly become a larger and larger share of compute capacity.
People are seriously underestimating how much demand is still ahead of us and how long it'll take supply to catch up. I think this is partly why Elon thinks SpaceX could exit 2027 with an annual recurring revenue rate of 500 to 1 trillion. They can deploy the compute faster than anyone else. And the demand for that compute is insatiable and likely will be for a long time to come.
And also not just inference, literally any chip that can do computation. Inference allows agents to use CPU and GPU way way way way way more productively to which Elon replied with true. And then it's official. SpaceX is reportedly in talks to acquire Boost Mobile or gain access to its wireless network.
Specifically, SpaceX is exploring a potential deal with Ecostar to expand its Starlink mobile business. But Boost Mobile currently operates using AT&T and T-Mobile networks, and AT&T and T-Mobile probably would not be happy with this happening. But we know that Elon Musk reportedly met with Ecostar chairman Charlie Urgant last month to discuss a potential deal.
So SpaceX is very serious about going after the whole mobile market. And then check this out. So Elon explained that the cost of serving Grogbot was unsustainably high relative to revenue. So that's why people had their usage limits changed. Although there is a development about that. So check your usage and it might have been changed back.
And I've now seen quite a few posts like this. People are begging for a higher pay tier to use Grogbot more. People want to pay more for Grogbot. And there were a lot of people complaining about the usage having been increased basically immediately. But what's happening is the credits are being sort of given back at least maybe temporarily.
We still have more usage. See here posted we are so back was at 100% usage and paying on demand before meeting a friend for dinner tonight. Come back after dinner. Check how much on demand usage I'm up to and discover my 100% is back down to 51%. And despite that he still wants a $500 month or a $1,000 per month plan.
And then Entropic revealed in its amended IPOS1 filing today that they have entered into purchase commitments and lease agreements with an aggregate committed spend for about $895 billion. All of which is related to compete and infrastructure. 447.5 billion of those commitments are expected to be incurred before December 31st of 2030.
Approximately 69.8 8 billion of these commitments are due in the next 12 months following September 30th, 2026. And you know that SpaceX is going to largely benefit from this. And so with Elon Musk predicting that basically all future super intelligence compete will obviously be overwhelmingly in space.
And knowing that only SpaceX can launch rockets so cheaply, this puts Tesla and SpaceX in a very good position, especially SpaceX. And I say Tesla also because obviously Tesla works with SpaceX and there's a very good chance that there's going to be a merger. Although things are seemingly changing about the merger and I will make maybe a different video about that.
That's important to discuss. Now, interestingly, there is a very high chance that if a merger proposal is announced, it will be based on the two closing prices of October 20th, 2026. When in the SpaceX earnings call, Elon announced the two special committees. Argument is that all price movements thereafter has merger speculation included.
Oh, check this out. The latest SEC filing show is Tesla's communication for votes of the December 3rd annual shareholder meeting. Sure looks like we are building a tariff app, doesn't it? All right. Oh, and then check this out about Tesla fleets around the same size. No significant difference in safety between Tesla and Whimo despite Tesla operating a larger geoence.
Tesla bears hopes continue to be shattered. So, we got Austin, Texas AV incident log. And here's the robo taxi and Whimo incident reported in October 20 reports. Tesla robot taxi 8 way 12 zero collisions for either. You can pause and check if you like. Nothing really all too important in here. And Elon made a prediction terrestrial compute will be penis compared to orbital compute.
Orbital compute deployed per month probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029. And now Tesla's global fleet has just crossed 17 billion miles driven on FSD. Last week Tesla updated this FSD mile counter to reflect growing usage. His fleet now drives 1,000 miles every 1.8 seconds on FSD or 18.2 billion miles annually, up 35% since July 2026.
I'm very bullish on Tesla. I'm very bullish on SpaceX. I'm very bullish on both these companies in the long term. Make sure to like and subscribe if you haven't yet and watch the Ron Baron bullcase for SpaceX that is explained so well. If you watch it, watch it again. If you watch it twice, watch it again.
It's so good. And I will see you back with another video tomorrow. Thank you so much for watching. Subscribe if you haven't.
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