저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 에드 야데니는 경기침체 없이 완만한 성장(연착륙)을 예상하며 2024년 실적 반등을 근거로 강세를 주장하고, 에릭 실로트(Eric Sprott 측 발언 추정)는 높은 밸류에이션과 실적 하향 위험을 들어 하락 가능성을 경고한다. [야데니 - 경기 전망] 글로벌 경기는 작년 가을 우려보다 나아지고 있으며 유럽은 침체를 피할 것으로 보고, 중국은 봉쇄 이후 회복 국면으로 판단한다. 미국은 느리지만 성장하며 침체는 없을 것이라고 본다. [야데니 - 시장 저점·채권·달러] 10월 12일에 저점을 형성했다고 보며, 채권시장 고점은 10월 24일, 달러 고점은 같은 무렵이었다고 설명한다. [야데니 - 실적·밸류에이션] 2023년 S&P500 주당순이익은 약 225달러로 보며, 시장은 이미 2024년을 보고 있고 2024년 주당순이익은 250달러 정도로 전망한다. 현재 밸류에이션은 높지만 실적 기대가 이를 뒷받침한다고 본다. [야데니 - 리스크·종목] 신용경색이나 금융위기 없이 인플레이션이 계속 낮아지는 과정으로 보며, 소비자 회복력이 경기침체 우려를 완화한다고 평가한다. 특정 개별 종목·자산 언급은 없다. [실로트 - 밸류에이션 경고] 2023년 예상 PER 18.4배는 과거 50년래 고점 수준이며, 버블 2개(코로나 이후, 인터넷 버블)를 제외하면 그 이상이 없었다고 지적한다. S&P500 이익수익률 약 5.4%와 머니마켓 금리 4.5%의 스프레드는 2001년 7월 이후 가장 좁다. [실로트 - 실적·하락 시나리오] 현재 실적 추정치는 저점 추정이 아니며 장기 추세선 대비 매출·영업이익률이 크게 높아 하향 위험이 크다고 본다. 멀티플이 15~15.5배로 돌아가면 약 20% 하락이 가능하다고 말한다. 경기침체가 깊지 않아도 인터넷 버블기처럼 주가가 크게 떨어질 수 있다고 본다. [실로트 - 연준] 금리 인상은 거의 끝났지만 5% 수준의 기준금리가 수개월~수분기 지속되는 것이 멀티플에 매우 부담이며 경기에 큰 역풍이 된다고 본다.
다듬은 글
I I think we made a low on October 12th I I thought that back in late October uh the bond market peaked on October 24th the dollar peaked around that same time uh I think um we have to look beyond the United States for starters and see that there's more and more evidence that the global economic Outlook is a lot better than people had feared uh last fall uh Europe looks like they're not going to have a recession China looks like it's coming out of its uh coveted Funk uh or at least there's lockdown situation and meanwhile when we come back to the United States uh there's still a big debate about soft versus hard landing and I think the economy is going to grow it's going to grow slowly but I don't think we're going to have a recession and I think the uh we've already been in a recession for the past years has been our rolling recession hitting in different Industries different sectors at different times Eric I mean not an unreasonable point of view at least on the surface and you really haven't wavered much lately uh you know that stocks are on borrowed time and it's all going to fall apart at some point but what about Ed's argument here so uh thanks for having me so I think the important thing is to really to go to the numbers and you know right now the market is trading at 18.4 times 2023 uh estimates those estimates I think are far too high but if we put that aside 18.4 times is a 50-year high X the two bubbles post covid and the internet bubble so you have to believe that we're going to go into a third bubble in order to get valuation such that you actually have upside for this market right now the earnings yield of the S P 500 is about 5.4 percent money market yields are four and a half percent it's about an 80 or 90 bip spread that's the tightest spread since July of 2001 one of those bubbles that I was referring to so the the argument for a soft Landing I think is it's possible it's unlikely based on what the yield curves are doing the leading economic indicators are doing the lag to the 500 bips of fed hikes we just had but let's it's possible but my question would be in that soft Landing scenario what are the earnings in 2023 and what's the multiple that's going to be put on those earnings Ed how would you answer that Eric is absolutely right about 2023 uh I I think that earnings are going to be basically up from last year but it's very controversial or people are talking about 200 per share or less for the S P 500 I'm at 225 the market is about 229 right now not the market but the industry analysts I think the market looks ahead and I think it's already looking ahead into 2024 and 2024 I think will be a good year nobody's really talking about it at this point but I think it'll be a good year and I think earnings are going to be 250 a share every single day of this year as we approach the coming year we're going to give more and more weight to 2024 and that's looking pretty good the 250 000 a share I think is a reasonable estimate for for next year and in terms of the valuation multiples I think right now earnings have been weakening somewhat I think we're going to have flat earnings not hard Landing declining earnings and um I I I agree I mean I'd be a lot happier if the multiples were eight to ten and we were starting there uh but it is what it is it's it's a soft Landing I think what the yield curve is saying is that inflation's coming down he'll cover in the past the dissipated Financial crises credit crunches and then recessions this time around I don't see a credit crunch I don't see a credit crunch causing a recession and I think the market is uh basically looking at inflation continuing to come down Eric I mean I've got you know yes the yield curve uh is inverted we know what that traditionally means yes the leading economic indicators uh are telling a difficult and perhaps stormy story but on the other side of that I do have a consumer that I'm sure has surprised you in its resiliency at least to this point that maybe this recession if it even is one doesn't look like ones of of years and and decades passed and that's what keeps us chugging along to the degree that Ed thinks we can and the stock stock market doesn't fall apart as a result well I think the the recession doesn't need to be a deep recession for stocks to go down a lot that happened if you look at the recession back in the internet bubble of of 2000 to 2003 that wasn't a that wasn't a deep recession yet stocks went down 50 percent and the issue that we have right now is that that because of the multiple of stocks just to go to the average if you go to a 15 15 and a half multiple on the S P you're talking about down about 20 percent from here and that's not even counting the fact that if you look at earnings estimates right now it's not like earnings estimates are trough estimates we are well above Trend if you draw a trend line over the last 20 years of earnings we are well above Trend operating margins well above Trend and so those estimates have significant risk to the downside and by the way we've been talking about this for six or nine months and over the last six or nine months they've been coming down and we think that they have a lot more to go and the other point I would make around the FED is that yes they are almost done okay but the issue is you know saying they're done you know if they were to raise rates tomorrow to 10 but say we're done well that's not good news and so the point is is that yes they're going to be done they're going to finish a 475 five five and a quarter but that kind of fed funds rate of five percent for many months and quarters to come that's very problematic for multiples and that's going to be a big headwind for the economy
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