저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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2008년 금융위기 당시 피터 쉬프는 미국 경제가 버블과 과도한 차입에 기반해 있어 심각한 침체가 불가피하며, 정부의 구제금융은 문제를 해결하기는커녕 달러 붕괴와 하이퍼인플레이션을 부를 것이라고 주장한다. 통화량과 인플레이션 측정 관련: 연준은 더 이상 통화량(M)을 신뢰할 지표로 쓰지 않으며, 자산 인플레이션과 재화 인플레이션을 구분하는 것은 무의미하다는 입장이다. 쉬프는 인플레이션은 하나이며 정부 정의가 아니라 실제 현상을 봐야 한다고 반박한다. 미국 경제 체질 관련: 미국은 생산성보다 소비·차입 중심의 흡수형 경제이며, 막대한 무역적자와 주가·부동산 등 종이 자산 가치 상승은 실질 부가 아니라고 주장한다. 주택시장 붕괴 시 고용 감소, 모기지 부실 확산이 이어질 것이라고 경고한다. 금 및 시장 관련: 쉬프는 다우지수가 연초 대비 크게 하락했고 금으로 환산하면 실질 손실이 크다고 언급하며 금 강세를 지지한다. 다만 금이 장기 약세장을 겪은 뒤 단기 반등한 것이므로 투자 판단은 신중해야 한다는 취지다. 경기침체 전망 관련: 서브프라임 부실은 이제 시작 단계이며 금리 리셋으로 주택 부문 충격이 전체 소비 신용 경색과 장기 침체로 이어질 것이라고 예측한다. 반대측은 주식시장이 경기침체를 잘못 신호한 적이 없다는 점과 소비 비중 고점을 들어 반박한다. 구제금융 관련: 쉬프는 구제금융이 정부 재정 및 달러 신뢰를 훼손해 인플레이션을 악화시킬 것이며, 소규모 구제도 상황을 악화시켰다고 주장한다. 재무부가 이익을 낼 수 있다는 주장은 근거가 약하다고 반박한다. 미국 제조업 및 중국 관련: 미국의 생산 기반이 약화됐다고 주장하며, 중국 소비 성장 기대는 근거 없는 희망이라고 본다. 크라이슬러 구제 사례 등을 들어 정부 개입의 효과를 의심한다. 전반적으로 쉬프는 장기적으로 달러 약세, 금 강세, 미국 경기 장기 침체를 강하게 주장한다.
다듬은 글
uh Peter great to see in studio Diana just once a alright do you take offense to the dr. doom moniker you remember the last guy that hit it was a huge economy I know I know a household name so I can recompensed you embrace it sure no problem alright well let's let's get started and I I did apologize for laughing but the reality is that we can't count the money supply very well especially in a global economy even the Fed no longer counts the money supply and relies on it as a reliable indicator so although in theory all your talk may be correct in application it's not very useful for no no wait a minute being inflation about for the Fed the Fed does not fight asset-based inflation so it has come out very strongly in saying we cannot fight asset-based inflation so for definitional purposes and for people in the market we have to be very clear about what the Fed is willing to challenge in terms of asset based inflation versus goods based inflation there's no such thing as asset based inflation or goods based inflation there's just inflation inflation can show up in an asset price to the Federal Reserve and if we're talking about what it means for financial markets you need to be very clear about how the Federal Reserve defines inflation now I don't care how is government defines inflation I care what inflation actually is the government is trying to confuse the public the government has a vested interest rying to confuse the show they are just ridiculous this is Fed Chairman have you ever talked to him I don't have to talk back in the 90s if you used your definition it's not my definition but if we've been fooled all along then the financial markets which value stocks based on inflation and inflationary expectations and the bond market as well I mean how long have bonds been you know we had Jamaica say they never fall below 6% so the entire global financial system has been fooled by what inflation really was based on what the US see now you've got it you can get an honorary doctorate didn't in do is that likely the market can be so wrong for so long that's definitely that's one of the problems of inflation it creates malinvestments it creates over investments it distorts economic thinking and ultimately we're all gonna pay the price for well no there has been a lot of situation that you're talking about here sort of its devoid of a whole context of structural change globally in the global there has been a world economy I just I just find it a little bit unfair to tell viewers that this is a simplistic way to look at the economy yesterday it's not unfair at all sure there has been productivity growth in China no doubt about it in fact one of the reasons is in the u.s.
some remarkable growth in well I would disagree that I think that's more sleight of hands for the statisticians I mean it really has me I'm from Detroit have you been in an auto plant recently well I could see what trade definitely if we were so productive why do we have a trade deficit where's all the merchandise we're producing we still produce a lot of merchandise why do we have a 65 billion dollar trade don't you have we have the highest rep entity consume and invest of any country in the world we've been growing rapidly than other countries in the world right we have more imports than exports all else equal we are absorption economy we have yes even you don't have a more efficient economy yes we have a bubble economy we're borrowing from abroad to consume that's not efficiency no tax increase coming in the next couple of years monetary policy is spectacular we have freer trade than ever before and not only that but there are no incomes policies things here I think Peter is just totally off-base and I don't think it's going to be I mean I just don't know where he's getting his stuff this is off base but it's definitely not me I mean it's not wealth that's increased in the last few years we haven't increased our productive capacity all that's increased is the paper values of a stocks and real estate but that's not real wealth no more than wealth when you see the stock market come down and the real estate bubble burst all that phony wealth is gonna evaporate and all that's going to be left is all the debt that we accumulated to foreigners Peter I'm gonna bet with you on this one I'll bet you a penny on this one that if you'll sign a letter saying that if you're wrong you'll sign a letter that you were wrong to me in this but you're just way off base there is nothing out there that tells us we're gonna slow down but it's not gonna be alright let me ask you this what's your depression points to the housing market and they say that a huge percentage of the jobs created some argue as much as 30% of the job creation over the last few years has been because of the housing boom whether it's construction whether it's mortgage brokers real estate brokers etcetera and if that all goes away what happens there will be dot there will be lots of things to fill it back up again Michele online is a bottom line is on the Big Bear on the US stock market you know the Dow Jones already is down 20% year-to-date priced in gold land a tremendous loss of purchasing power the Dow has lost better than 60 percent of a salient mm good management to me sounds like good management of the economy economy to me it's just like a corporation you know I we have a huge deficit I mean we're making money on the money we're borrowing more than the people who are getting for limited to us yeah we're not corporate America well boy honey we've sort of seen that that play out and I think that you know it's interesting that you go through a 20-year period where gold is underperforming you get a two-year period where gold is outperformed then every Gold Bug comes out of the woodwork and wants to tell you how you should go in gold and not Google and I'm not sure I can rationally with that decision remember gold was in a bear market for 20 years stocks were in a bull market for 20 years that's changed and people have to understand though they're gonna lose a lot of money you know I mean the gold rally I think is still early on I don't know do own the old any gold yet art I know just play wedding ring all right well you see let me know when you got something what do you think gold is saying well you know first of all you just described the US market as being bulletproof and I think gold is telling us that it's about to get shot full of holes there the housing market is just beginning to unravel we're seeing the tip of the iceberg here in in the mortgage sector but probably how do you put together all this gloom and doom what day that tells you this Peter well aren't you looking at the news reports coming out of the mortgage market aren't you love it yeah yeah aren't you looking at the glut of houses on the market for sale with no buyers and in the collapse in the subprime market well I wouldn't call it a collapse in the subprime market that's been significantly in the subprime market it's just starting also looking at housing prices which had an orderly decline I'll tell you something that makes a lot of sense to me you you talked about the collapse of the and stacking that incredible bear market that we had those are usually once-in-a-lifetime events for suggesting that in a very short order less than 10 years later we're gonna have another one well in a different asset class sure in real estate I also I think I might just maybe take a little issue with the other guests here I mean in that I mean the whole concept of them this US economy is teetering on recession you know with all due respect I think is is absurd it's completely absurd excuse me sir let me let me finish I think the stock market generally speaking does not give false positives or false in 2002 stock market doesn't give false signals investable you're starting to see it in the housing market you had a lot of people over the past four or five years borrow a lot of money that they can't afford to repay they were able to keep it together for a while on these artificial teaser rates but as these rates are starting to reset you're starting to see what's happening in the housing market it's gonna throw through to the entire economy and consumer credit is gonna dry up and we're going to be in a recession and it's gonna be a devastating recession it's not just gonna be a few quarters of negative growth it's gonna last for years scape and jump in here what do you say he's saying it's a disaster well you know I really don't see this economy that he's talking about why hasn't it happy why hasn't the collapse happened why has it the skeleton the subprime skeleton come fully out of the closet and scared the living daylights everybody it takes a while it takes a while for this stuff to filter through look at how long these hedge funds were able to pretend that these subprime debt secured is that they hold actually have value or close to par when they're really practically worthless if not completed now that they're not and now that they're not pretending anymore nothing's happened in the world hasn't ended so one of these days we're just gonna have to stop predicting that this same old thing is gonna cause the end of the world its corruption America being a burden on the world America is the shining beacon i production is in many cases the low end of the totem no the high intellectual content what are we created here there is only one Microsoft know that why do we have a 60 built why do we have a 60 billion dollar month trade deficit if we're producing so much stuff and that because we're so rich we know that's not because our money is so nice our credit is accepted worldwide that billions of peasants worldwide are willing to work in poorly lit truly ventilated factories just to get our paper money because it's that precious money is precious we printed it cost us nothing you look who's gonna wake this con well how are the consumers served by having the value of their money the value of their wages and their savings diminished I don't think that has any impact the Fed doesn't have any impact on that at all those who aren't familiar with you this has been your prediction for how many decades though well not not decades but it's certainly been my my prediction for the last seven or eight years and I've been dead-on right you have sure look what's happened since 2000 we Lehman Brothers gone Merrill Lynch bought AIG lent eighty five billion dollars from well from you and me new rules for investing one hundred and eighty billion dollars pumped into global markets right now we do not yet know the details of what this monster bailout actually is only that it will be massive and costly and in the short term the short term may have saved the economy from utter disaster about everything that Alan just said but there is a key difference between the Peter Schiff you think that we in fact a recession a deep recession it is necessary not only inevitable absolutely you know the root of the problem is in response to the most irresponsible monetary policy in US history American citizens borrowed and spent trillions of dollars and now the institutions that loaned the money are going broke because we can't pay it back and this bailout isn't gonna change the fact that we're broke as a society we need to go back away from borrowing and spending and towards producing and saving again and the government is trying to interfere with the free market and if they succeed with this bailout what they're gonna do is bring on a crisis far greater than the one they're trying to avoid they're gonna destroy the dollar and then we're gonna see hyperinflation we're gonna see prices and interest rates going sky-high and there's nothing we're be able to do about that Steven I don't know where to start la for one thing that bailout doesn't necessarily have to be a losing thing I mean the headline in Barron's is that actually the Treasury could end up making money on this bailout now it's 700 billion that's a huge number but you know how much we've already lost because of this crisis in terms of lower equity value in our homes lower stock prices it's in the trillions so how does seven hundred billion all of a sudden counteract trillions of dollars that's been lost how does seven hundred billion that can turn into a profit for the Treasury somehow turn in why are you laughing and what should be Peter you don't think that we can step in here that a big bailout is suddenly gonna make this right no oh first of all all the smaller bailouts along the way have made the situation worse all the government can do is create inflation the governor doesn't have any money they're gonna print it now they're gonna try to con the Chinese and the Japanese and the Saudis into loaning us more money but they're done we've borrowed and spent ourselves into bankruptcy that's the problem it's the fundamentals of the economy you know I wrote a book called crash proof how to profit from the coming economic collapse the economy is collapsing exactly the way I wrote that it would but also in that book I was afraid that the government would do exactly what they're doing now and this is worse we're gonna die from the cure not the disease and keep it strong but it can make it a lot weaker these problems are severe with free-market look the free-market Kingsolver that we can't solve them with a printing press we go to Zimbabwe and see how well it works Peters comparing us to Samoa just to somehow you may not like George Bush but he is not Robert Mugabe where he is not Robert Mugabe there are a little bit different a little bit different government doesn't work making the government bigger they're printing money buying up dead it's not gonna solve the problems that make any sense look at Barron's today you should have read it before you came in I hate to tell you the lead story in Barron's today is the Treasury Department if this works out we'll make money with the sodium see Jeremy Arno barons appearances say you don't care about fairness you don't care about the financial media I know well obviously that's gonna make us bad situation worse but we're even further out on the leverage limb than we were a year ago what is debt and rates are gonna go up how we're doing sparked a lot of bonds on the books of the banks and they're sitting on them let's not say we're all leveraged out it isn't like you know the consumers haven't been working down they're dead and all the rest of that they have started they've gotten started but with it you know they're nowhere near in good shape we've been spending binge for a generation money for a generation come on nothing's gonna save money we got two years of been in the loop and keep it there for a long time did you look at the GDP data that was released this morning there was an amazing thing which I want to throw out as a challenge to you do you realize that the consumption share of GDP when I hit all-time highs this last quarter what that means is it this theory that the consumer is just completely falling off the cliff and will never come back or give you 25 years of scrimp and save has simply not shown up one iota in the number it's not a deeper hole this is gonna come to an end you can't run an economy on spending other people's money you run an economy on savings in production we've got it completely backwards and that's why we're in trouble skin I want to know what is the China story if the US isn't there to be a customer the Chinese in return to a consumer society we have simply wishful thinking but where's the data they can buy their own stuff there's a billion Chinese as long as their government stops buying our bonds and stops oppressing their own currency you're gonna unleash massive purchasing power it's actually a big greener than ever before this is an industry with an outstanding track record this is an industry that has helped build the middle class it is worthy of investment the Chrysler bailout three thirty years ago paid off this investment will pay off we didn't we didn't get 30 years of productivity from it Chrysler is back in bankruptcy how do you know what what Chrysler would look like if the government had stayed out of it if you think if you think these companies are such good investments you put your own money into it
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