저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 전후 발언. 블랙웰 칩 출하 지연 및 수율 문제가 있었으나 수요는 여전히 높다고 주장. 데이터센터 매출 262억 달러(전년 대비 약 2.5배)를 언급하며 긍정적 시각. 옵션 시장의 실적 후 예상 변동폭(±11~12%)과 가이던스(320~340억 달러 기대) 관전 포인트 제시. 시장은 실적 후 조정을 보였으나 대세 훼손은 아니라는 시각. 9월 금리 인하 기대와 소형주 로테이션 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
I'm not sure whether I should pay a little less than that for Nvidia, but Salesforce has momentum, and you know how much people adore momentum growth models. I love that. Finally, though, I would say that last night was among the most thrilling evenings we have ever experienced. Jensen may not have made a mistake, but the yields were quite low. That is like the fur, like when, in fact, he is discussing it on the conference call. Let's listen to his thoughts, namely about the increase in manufacturing of the new Blackwell chips with faster computing. Generative AI data centers around the world are working feverishly to modernize the entire computing stack. Demand for Hopper is still high, and Blackwell is highly anticipated. He can't create them quickly enough, so I suppose that wasn't the case. He's unable to, as a result, gross margins are hurt, which annoys people. However, I also believe, David, when you have Nvidia watch parties frequently, and you have teams that, for instance, you can speak about in the Premier League... I don't know, they're in weird British cities. Indeed, what occurs is that, well, that's a watch party, isn't it? No, and that's—you understand that. That, of course, is the right conclusion. However, I do believe that, along with the national Nvidia day and the way the country kind of stalled at one point, why no, we have to return to reality, which is that Nvidia is a corporation run by a male, and they did have some product issues. It's just that, look, we've been creating as many as we'd want, but 2024 demand is obviously still there. Naturally, we have discussed the ongoing capital expenditure plans of all of the world's biggest corporations. They make up 45% of the company, and data center revenues are 26.3 billion, which, to put it in context, is two and a half times what it was not so long ago. Who makes these whispers? I asked a well-known AI semi executive. I said, the stock is rock because short sellers give it to their sell-side colleagues, making the number too high. They need to be $2 billion, but they can't. Okay, a suitable multiple for this business. Let's assume that they will do it for a whole year. Assume that they do $5 for the 26th EPS number, D for the calendar year. Yes, that's right. Still, multiply it by 30. Okay, why not? You have a stock that is currently down $30 from where it will be, so why not give it a multiple of 30? However, given that we know that Jensen Wong is ultimately flawed, it has become a little more "show me." We didn't believe he was prone to mistakes, but now he is. Therefore, it's possible that some individuals believe we can't offer it that many. That isn't a significant call order, in my opinion, on a $5 number. Multiply it by 30. Why not? What the devil? Yes, but I believe that when we learned that there were yield issues, we were all a little taken aback. David, we should never have assumed it was turn, but we kind of felt like it was. Keep in mind that developing a new semiconductor is difficult, and they were putting some. He repeatedly stressed that having our panel ready would yield a return on investment. Josh Brown, the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, has had shares for as long as I can recall. Stacy Rasgon, a senior analyst at Bernstein, and Stephanie Link from Hightower are also present today. Contributors Steve, Josh, and CNBC. Okay, Josh, since you're my guy on video, you get to speak first. What information is required here? The most intriguing aspect of this situation, in my opinion, is that volatility persists even if the market capitalization has increased to its current size. Usually that isn't the case. We typically anticipate a maturation in a company's operations as it grows in size, which makes us less erratic in our daily assessments of the stock price. Simply said, Nvidia is something else. The stock and options market is a self-contained casino, and this report is no exception. In response to tonight's earnings, Nvidia is predicted to move up or down 11%. The implied move after earnings was plus or minus 12% on average over the previous eight quarters. Thus, the game remains the same. I would start by telling you that, to set the stage, the second item is estimated earnings per share of 65 cents. That represents a 138% year-over-year increase, or 113% on revenue of 28.7 billion. If you look at the most recent post-earnings reactions from 2023 to the present, they were plus 14%, plus 24%, flat, and then minus 2%, which is unthinkable yet happened. A plus 16, followed by a zero. The average reaction for the most recent quarter in 2023 and 2024 is plus 10%. But, as I've shown you, the outcomes have been somewhat inconsistent. The one thing we haven't seen since the start of the Nvidia era is the major down reaction. I'm not saying it will begin tonight. Just remember that, even though we haven't seen it in this time frame, it is within the realm of possibilities. Okay, so Stacy, clearly, as it always is, all eyes are on guidance. I apologize, but the estimate, the predicted guide, is close to 32 billion in revenues to achieve what Josh would refer to as a significant plus reaction out of the stock. How much more than that is required? Indeed, I believe that the buy-side rumors are closer to 33 and 34 billion, which would likely indicate a data center guide of at least 30 billion. The price is a little higher than the 28 billion they had guided for this quarter. If you consider that the other companies are worth a few billion dollars for the upcoming quarter, they have streets of about 31 and 31.8, or 28.7 or 28.8. The bid is most likely between 33 and 34. Do you think they will reach that point? Yes, this is what's interesting, isn't it? Everyone has been wondering what the Blackwell delays could imply for all of this, and I believe that it won't be a big problem for Q3. Blackwell revenues in Q3 were never going to be very high anyhow. Additionally, they won't provide guidance for Q4 and beyond. Perhaps some color will be added to that. They're still sending whatever they can sell, so I believe there's still a lot of demand. Though there has been a slight delay with Blackwell, I believe they have been able to backfill some of those instances. I believe that Hopper, H200, and similar devices are responsible for the majority, if not all, of it. Revenue should be all right, in my opinion, as we approach the end of the year and the start of the next. What does this delay truly signify, if anything, in terms of commentary? Blackwell was intended to escalate. Does the roadmap have any modification that could affect that trajectory? For example, what impact does it have on profit margins? You see, if, as there, they might be changing the roadmap, there's more qualitative feedback that we might receive, and it might be significant and could influence the stock in one direction or another. However, I do believe that the revenue figures will likely be acceptable, with the Dow and S&P hanging near new highs. August was undoubtedly a tumultuous month for the NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow as we prepare for a jobs report and potential Fed rate reduction. What will September hold for stocks? Tom Lee, a CNBC contributor and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, is now joining us. It's good to have you here, Tom. I should add that there won't be any notable net gains in Nvidia. It will only have gains if it maintains its strong session, which is today. It's nice to see you, Tom. It's been a while since we spoke. First and foremost, how do you feel about the way the market has interpreted Nvidia's financial results? Naturally, it started out in the pre-market yesterday morning. It was operating normally until yesterday's session ended, at which point it closed down more significantly. Nvidia is one of those stocks that, in my opinion, has become part of stock market legend. Nearly everyone holds a position, and I don't believe that the profits and results altered anyone's perception of AI and its crucial role in both global productivity and Nvidia's role. However, the selloff, in my opinion, indicates that a lot of positive news was priced in, which I believe is the reason why the stock dropped. The overall market remains stable. That was a good result, in my opinion, and it simply goes to demonstrate that there is space for a lot more rotation. It also reveals that small caps are among the groups that stand to gain from that rotation. If you're looking at the valuations of some of those sectors that haven't done so well in recent months and years, or if things have rebounded enough overall that you start to get a little worried about valuations for the entire market, not just the Nvidias of this world, then let's talk about that rotation, Tom, and how much work remains. Given that the equity markets have been growing for a number of years, our clients are undoubtedly questioning us about valuations. However, I believe that the concept of a rotation is based on a few factors. One is that the Fed's rate path is lower, which helps small-cap and cyclical stocks.
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