Tom Lee: Still a good risk-reward balance in equities, even in the stocks leading the rally

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AI 수요와 반도체·에너지 공급 부족으로 주식이 실적 기반으로 오르고 있으며, 반도체지수 선행 PE 22배는 과거 고점 35배보다 낮아 리스크-리워드가 여전히 양호하다고 봄. 다만 올해 후반 새 연준의장의 인플레이션 판단과 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄에 따른 석유 부족이 시장을 시험해 15~20% 조정(드로다운)이 나올 수 있음. 그럼에도 AI와 미국의 공급 희소성으로 2027년 7,700 이상 상승 가능성 제시. 장기 강세, 중기 변동성 전망.

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01. Let's ask Tom Lee. He's Fundstrat's head of research, a CNBC contributor, has been all over this move, on the right side of it. Welcome back. It's good to have you. You know, what what's interesting to me is you say that the risk reward in the market is still positive. I'm wondering though whether that spread is starting to narrow.

02. Um hi, good afternoon, Scott. Uh to us, stocks are rising uh for the right reasons. I know I've said that before, cuz we've had good earnings, but also just evidence of really the scarcity of compute and the supply chain, whether it's semis and energy and you know, AMD's the latest example. Um but the market hasn't made these stocks expensive yet.

03. The forward PE of the semi index is still only 22 times, and while that might sound high, because they were expensive uh more expensive than a month ago, you know, they they they'd gotten as high as 35 times over the last 20 years. So, to me, there's still pretty good risk reward, even in the stocks that are leading this rally.

04. So, the risk reward is still fairly balanced, I I hear you suggesting. Is that right? Yes, and I think that there's still um there was cuz so much skepticism as the war started and reached its crescendo that we do believe there's still a lot of money on the sidelines. And you know, in this case, I think it's actually more retail investors that are chasing this move, and that may explain why we're seeing such big moves in and things like memory and semis.

05. You don't think that, you know, sentiment and and or what's being reflected in the market by virtue of some of these moves has gotten a little bit a little bit too much? I I bring up this note today from Ed Yardeni, uh you know, obviously friend of the show. He's on frequently, is talking about to infinity and beyond.

06. What he's calling now the Buzz Lightyear theory, BLT of AI. The data revolution is going to infinity and beyond, he says. He's even more bullish than his original roaring 20s 2020s scenario. Is that is that well-founded? Is it a point of concern? If you start getting some of the folks who are generally speaking pretty bullish to sound almost euphoric, is that something to worry about?

07. Uh I mean, I think it's something we have to calibrate uh cuz I'm I'm actually here at the Milken conference, and I think one of the recurring themes is that AI for the US is probably adding two percentage points to GDP each year for the next 5 years. You know, that's like 6% S&P earnings growth coming from AI productivity.

08. And balancing that is I know a lot of rational investors that continue to point to this coming shortage of petroleum products. So, I think there's enough logical reasons for people to stay cautious, but I think there's now a fundamental argument for why AI is is causing earnings growth without inflation, and so that that is a good combination for stocks.

09. But see, I I look at what you still suggest is a three-phase market. That's how you characterize it. A rise of the S&P to 7,300, check, right? We're there, beyond it. But then you talk about headwinds emerging. See, as as we started this year to refresh everybody's memory, you thought we were going to have a really good start to the year.

10. We would drift into a bear market before another upswing would take us even higher into the end of the year. Now, when the war broke out and we had about 10% or so pullback in the S&P, I thought, well, maybe that's Tom's moment. He couldn't get the timing right, cuz who can, but that was the pullback, and now we're so bulled up on AI that maybe we're we're going to do just fine for the rest of the year, but you're still looking you're still looking for a drawdown of 15 to 20%?

11. Is that right? Um I am, Scott. I I think that 7,300 originally was like an aspirational level and now that we're here I I I think that there still is fuel for a move higher from here. But we do have to confront later this year uh two things and maybe it won't affect the markets, but I think it it's the trigger for a drawdown.

12. One is course the market will test a new Fed and this incoming Fed chair has some different theories on the sources of inflation and how to read inflation. And so the market I believe will put those views to the test. And of course the second is that uh every day that the straight is closed, we know that there's an acute shortage developing of petroleum products.

13. So if price reacts later this year that's going to test the market. So I do think there's the ingredients for turbulence later. But AI and the scarcity and and the US is the provider of that scarcity is why I think we can exit 77 or higher in maybe 2027 is one of the biggest rallies we see in our lifetime. So I think it's still a bullish outlook, but turbulence in the middle.