저자: JeremySiegel · 한국인
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2022년 주식·채권 동반 하락의 주된 원인은 경기침체 공포보다 연준의 급격한 금리인상에 따른 할인율 상승이라는 진단이다. 연준이 2021년에 긴축을 시작했어야 했는데 2022년 3월에야 시작해 늦었고, 이후 금리 인상 속도가 전후 시기 중 가장 빨랐다. 여름에는 물가 상승세 둔화를 보고 과도한 긴축(over-tightening)을 경고했다. 12월 14일 FOMC에서는 50bp 인상이 예상되며, 개인적으로는 그 이후 멈추고 관망하기를 원한다고 밝혔다. 장단기 금리 역전은 과거 경기활동에 좋지 않은 신호였다. 물가 상승 대부분은 이미 지나갔고, 연준이 주거비 통계(정부의 지연된 집계 방식) 때문에 주거 인플레이션을 과대평가하고 있다고 본다. 실제로는 집값·임대료가 하락 중이다. 경기침체 여부는 확실하지 않으며, 연준이 2023년 중반부터 금리를 인하할 것으로 본다. 실업률 상승과 실업수당 청구 증가가 확인되면 연준이 방향을 바꿀 것이고, 시장은 경기 저점보다 4~5개월 먼저 반등한다. 2022년 상반기에 GDP가 두 분기 연속 감소해 기술적 경기침체가 있었다. 3분기는 소폭 증가, 4분기도 긍정적으로 보인다. 2023년 성장률은 약 1% 수준일 것으로 보며, 상반기 저성장 후 연준 금리 인하와 함께 하반기 성장이 재개될 것으로 전망한다.
다듬은 글
well certainly the markets have had kind of an up and down year in 2022 part of that can be tied to the state of the economy the levels of inflation we've seen the policy Decisions by the Federal Reserve and much more what lies ahead though for 2023 we asked that on both sides of that question to our good friend Professor Jeremy Siegel uh professor emeritus at the Wharton School Jeremy great to talk to you again happy to see you and uh happy holidays to you Dan thank you very much Jeremy and I guess let's start out looking back at 2022 and you and I have talked a good bit over the course of the year and how the markets react in your opinion how have they reacted to all that has gone on well certainly it's been a disappointing year uh uh for equities um uh worse for bonds actually relative to their historical performance uh one of one of the few times in the past 15 or 20 years when both bonds and stocks have moved decisively lower and the reason for that is very clear the FED as we talked about a year ago Dan was extremely late in its uh tightening mode it should have started tightening early in 2021 uh in fact it didn't begin until March of this year more than a year later uh than it should um then it seemed like the FED which was Ultra dovish I I remember uh on the networks I called Jay Powell the most dovish uh chair of the central bank that uh I had ever seen uh suddenly he got religion and uh became Ultra hawkish um at first of course I uh I cheered uh in uh you know last November when the pivot was voiced it didn't really start till March it was fine April May you should have started raising it faster but then and surprising many people in the middle of the summer I got alarmed that uh Powell and the FED were raising it too fast because I saw a Slowdown in the price increases and I began warning that the danger now is over tightening nonetheless this has been the fastest increase in the FED funds rate that we have seen uh probably in the post-war period and is as every Finance student at Wharton and around the world knows Financial assets are discounted at the interest rate plus a risk premium and when the FED sharply raises the interest rate uh those valuations must go down and they did um I a tribute therefore most of the decline that we see to the rise in interest rates not the fear of recession not that there isn't a fear of recession there most certainly is but if you take a look at it is mostly a interest rate phenomenon that has caused this decline in your opinion then if the Federal Reserve had acted earlier might they have needed to not act as aggressively with some of the rate increases and then maybe we would have had a little bit of a different impact along along the path over the last year and a half oh most certainly without question um if they started increasing the end of 2020 even or beginning 2021 we wouldn't have to go as high uh we wouldn't have had the inflation that we had and they wouldn't have to go as high as they had um and equities uh in my opinion would not have had as big a burst as they had in 2021 but we probably would uh have an increase in this year a milder increase last year and uh an increase in this year uh had they actually started earlier so it feels like right now we're at a point where we've had these 75 basis point increases uh it feels like December is going to probably be a little less and and then we'll we'll wean it down in in the early months of of 2023 is that your expectation and and where might the target rate end up landing at least in the short term I think now uh we're going to get an awful lot of data as you know um uh uh before the meeting my my expectation is a 50 basis points and honestly Dan I would like them to stop there and pause and look around uh truthfully I don't even think another 50 is uh is called for but uh I think that that is certainly uh what what is in the cards at this point for the December 14th meeting um the FED has inverted the yield curve which of course means that uh they've sent short-term rates above long-term rates that has not been a good sign in the past for economic activity my feeling is is that uh the vast majority of inflation is behind us um I have also voiced uh strongly the opinion in the media uh that the FED is misreading current inflation um particularly because of the way the government collects housing statistics uh they still think housing inflation is going on a very rapid rate when in fact all the evidence on the ground is that house prices and rental prices are now declining not Rising um but because of the lagged way in which the government collects those statistics uh they show uh they'll they'll see the housing sector which is a very important sector of core inflation um continue to rise throughout the rest of this year and and early 2020 23.
what's your expectation then as we go into next year of of the mindset around recession are are is it is it a a certainty at this point at what level might we see it what what are your thoughts no it's not a certainty at this point um uh If the Fed continues to hike next year or stays High I I I think they are going to start bringing down the FED funds rate by mid-year now some economists don't think it's going to happen until 2024 but I think that that would remain tight way too long and I think they're going to see the evidence of the Slowdown um once they see that uh unemployment rate rise jobless claims rise and the real economy so often they're going to back away and start talking about decrease that's going to really encourage the market we all know the market turns uh up um four to five months before the economy actually bottoms um and don't forget this year we had a technical recession in the first half of the year so uh two declining quarters of GDP now uh we had a mild increase in the third quarter fourth quarter looks positive however we don't have all the Christmas sales in yet as we speak we'll see how it is but this has been a very poor year for GDP growth I think we're going to be growing maybe only one percent this year which is again normally you have recession following booms um so I don't think we we may not we may just have a period of slow growth in the first half the FED then lowers the rate and then we can commence growing again in the second half of 2023.
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