저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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Fed의 긴축 우려와 통화량 급감에 대한 경고가 핵심이다. 시장 흐름: 올해 초 3~4개월간의 하락은 금리 상승(분모) 때문이었고, 최근 약세는 기업 이익(분자) 우려에서 비롯됐다. 시장은 베어마켓 반등을 두고 밀당 중이다. 통화량: 당일 발표된 월간 통화량 감소폭은 60여 년 만에 두 번째로 컸다. 2020~2021년 과잉 유동성이 실수였듯, 2022년 이를 급격히 회수하는 것도 실수가 될 수 있다. Fed 평가: 인플레이션 파이프라인이 여전히 존재하므로 Fed가 한꺼번에 긴축을 몰아치면 경기침체, 특히 2023년 심각한 침체 위험이 있다. 금리는 중립으로 가야 하지만 통화량도 함께 봐야 한다는 입장이다. 지표 및 리스크: 모기지 금리 5% 돌파, 장기채 금리 상승으로 주택판매·제조업·서비스업·복합 PMI·리치몬드 지수 등 지표가 부진했다. 소매업 실적도 경고 신호로 해석된다. 빌 애크먼 인용: 연준이 인플레 억제 의지를 명확히 보여주면 시장이 반등할 수 있다는 견해에 대해, Siegel은 금리와 통화량 두 가지를 함께 주시해야 한다고 답했다. 재정 리스크: 2차대전 이후 최대 수준의 재정적자 축소가 진행되어 경기를 떠받칠 재정 부양은 없는 상태다. 출연자 전망: 지금 Fed가 과도하게 움직이는 것을 우려하며, 인플레가 자연 소진되도록 완만히 가야 경기침체를 피할 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
tug of war currently underway in this stock market what that means to your money it was on full display yet again especially into the close today let's ask the famed wharton professor jeremy siegel he is back with us today from philadelphia professor welcome back to overtime it is nice to see you nice to see you scott i do feel like we had an old-fashioned tug of war here especially going into the close those who want to take the market higher even if it's a bear market bounce and those who say we haven't gone down hard and fast enough to really justify where we are yeah well you know the first three and a half four months of this year the decline was because of the rise in interest rates the recent weakness is uh what i call the numerator and that is earnings because in the price of stocks is earnings over interest rates and you know we've had that rise from the fed um and now there is for the first time concern about that earnings and um by the way uh earlier today you know i look at the money supply is a very important indicator we had a one o'clock announcement today the second largest monthly decline in the money supply in more than 60 years wow you talk about contraction i mean you know you know the big mistake of the fed was 2020 when they put too much money in in 2021 we don't want to make too much a mistake are they going to try to just take it all away in 2022 i'm i'm beginning to get a bit concerned about overreaction and maybe some of the weakness we see in the economy is because uh you know the the fed is withdrawing liquidity perhaps a bit too quickly uh i think they could go i mean so you've been the loudest person on the network over the last couple of months saying the fed needs to do more now you're telling me they're doing too much they just got started i know i well first of all their talk of what they're gonna do we've seen how that has tightened the markets you know bringing in the you know the long bond over three bringing mortgage rates over five percent when you saw home sales today scott i mean you take a look at some of these monthly reports i mean a snap is that a warning it is what we're seeing from the retailers a warning now listen they they definitely have to move up 50 um but their july meeting and i would just recommend that they you know and they if they would look at the money supply they wouldn't be in the position they are today back in 2020 and 2021 are they gonna say okay we didn't get the money supply all the way back down you are for sure gonna have a recession and a bad one in 2020 uh 2023.
you know my feeling is that maybe there's a lot of inflation in the pipeline listen they can't do a lot about it that's all really because of the liquidity they put in it's not like steering a wheel in a car oh well just turn this lever inflation goes down to two percent no uh maybe they should accept the inflation in the in the pipeline go we go easier get us back down to the two to three percent long term that they want but uh you know right now as i said i mean that was a pretty shocking statistic for me because you know i based all my inflation forecasts uh two years ago and a year ago on this money supply i had never thought that i was gonna see a decline wow so pulling money out of the system at the same time that the economy may be weakening faster than people initially thought you mentioned the home sales report i mean manufacturing miss services miss composite pmi miss richmond miss your new home sales miss month over month miss but let me read you this this from bill ackman today on twitter professor in terms of what he thinks would stop what he calls this the market spiral what would what would end it it ends he says quote when the fed puts a line in the sand on inflation and says it will do whatever it takes and then demonstrates it is serious by immediately raising rates to neutral and committing to continue to raise rates until the inflation genie is back in the bottle stocks of real businesses are cheap once again markets will soar once investors can be confident that the days of runaway inflation are over let's hope the fed gets it right i hear you saying to people like bill ackman that is way too much from the fed and now you're worried that they're going to overdo it well i'm just saying that they've got to keep their eyes on two things the one is is the interest rate and the other is the supply of liquidity uh you know don't forget we move from unbelievable fiscal stimulus to a situation a big you know biggest or one-year reduction that we had since world war two in in the budget deficit there's no stimulus coming from anywhere with restriction you know there's a question let's the the a lot of that inflation is in the pipeline you know you you want to absolutely crush the economy to get rid of it right away or say i'm going to let some of it just move through in in my thought of getting back to the path the past mistakes of the fed we're paying for those and uh the only way they can fix it you know immediately is to cause one of the an extremely severe recession my my feeling is listen that you know i've been saying go to neutral uh you know that they've been too slow i'm just saying they've got to look at money as well as interest rates they never talked about money had they talked about money in 2021 we would not be in this situation today
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