저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 중앙은행이 인플레이션 싸움에서 항복하고 있으며, 금리 인상 없이 정부 지출을 계속 화폐화하는 한 인플레이션이 승리하고 자산 가격은 하락할 것이라는 주장. 중앙은행 항복론: 영국은행(BoE)이 인플레 싸움을 포기하고 양적긴축에서 무제한 양적완화로 전환했다고 주장. 정부 지출과 인플레이션: 재정적자를 중앙은행이 화폐화하고 있어 인플레이션이 곧 정부의 세금 역할을 한다고 설명. 지출 삭감 없이는 인플레가 잡히지 않는다고 봄. 금리와 2008년 위기 비교: 2008년 위기는 저금리가 만든 주택 버블의 정상화(금리 인상)로 촉발된 것이라 설명. 2010년대 내내 0% 금리로 쌓인 부채를 현재 금리 수준에서 상환할 수 없다고 봄. 자산 가격 전망: 금리가 오르면 주식·부동산 등 자산 가격은 하락한다고 주장. 2021년 미국 적자기업 상장 기록을 들며 고평가 우려 제기. 금리 수준 근거: 연방기금금리 약 3.25~3.5%, 인플레이션 약 8.25%를 언급하며 실질금리가 약 -5%라고 설명. 인플레를 잡으려면 실질금리가 크게 플러스여야 한다고 주장. 1981년 볼커 시기 단기금리 21%, 인플레 13.5%를 사례로 제시. 저축 유인: 마이너스 실질금리에서는 저축 유인이 없어 소비가 지속된다고 봄. 고금리로 저축을 유도해야 수요 감소와 자본투자를 통한 공급 증가가 가능하다고 설명. 재정 및 정책 비판: 연간 2조 달러 적자를 연준 외 재원으로 조달할 수단이 없다고 주장. 인플레이션감축법(IRA) 등 지출 확대와 학자금 대출 탕감을 비판. 리스크: 정책 당국이 인플레를 해결하려 인플레를 늘리는 악순환에 빠져 있으며, 금리 인상은 금융위기를 유발할 수 있어 딜레마 상태라는 진단. 언급 종목/자산 방향: 개별 종목은 직접 언급되지 않음. 금리 상승 시 주식·부동산 하락, 고평가 적자 기업 취약 등 자산 일반 하락 전망.
다듬은 글
the central banks are going to surrender and inflation is going to win look we've already seen the First Central Bank capitulate and wave the right white flag and that was the bank of England the bank of England a week or two ago was every bit as committed to fighting inflation as the FED until the inflation fight threatened the financial crisis and then they cowed out turned around and they're back to quantitative easing they went from quantitative tightening to open-ended quantitative easing in fact the bank of England said we're going to print as many pounds as we have to we're going to keep on buying guilts we're not going to let interest rates go up they have to let interest rates go up if you want to fight inflation you got to let interest rates go up but the other thing you have to do to fight inflation is to make government's spending go down because government spending is the source of that inflation governments are running deficits and the central banks are monetizing those deficits by creating inflation governments are actually funding themselves through inflation when you have a budget deficit you're not getting government for free every nickel that the government spends has to be paid for by the citizens and if they don't pay for it with a tax then how are they paying for it through inflation so when prices go up that's the tax that you're paying for all these government programs and so if the government wants to get rid of inflation well then it has to get rid of those programs or it has to raise taxes to finance those programs and that's not happening that's not happening anywhere nowhere in the world despite all these governments that claim they want to fight inflation no government is actually doing it nobody is cutting spending in fact in the UK they cut taxes well when you cut taxes you increase the inflation tax so the British were claiming that they wanted to fight inflation while at the same time ating even more of it that is the problem but the same thing is going to happen to the Federal Reserve in the United States you cannot raise interest rates without creating a financial crisis the the financial crisis we had in 2008 was a result of a normalization of interest rates it wasn't simply a subprime problem the reason subprime was the problem was because it was debt people borrowed money and they couldn't pay it back why were they able to borrow the money because it was cheap the FED lowered interest rates to 1% they created a housing bubble housing prices went up people borrowed money against those inflated property values they borrowed money with artificially low interest rates and when interest rates went up property prices went down people didn't want to pay their mortgages you get a financial crisis because now the banks didn't get their money back they loaned all this money out they didn't get it back that was why we had a crisis well today we have much more debt than we had in in 2008 we had 0% interest rates for almost 10 years think about all the debt that was taken on during those 10 years by not only the government corporations private citizens do you think they can repay that debt when rates normalize of course not and what happens when rates go up asset prices come down it's like the other side of a seesaw the lower interest rates are the more expensive stocks are the more expensive real estate is but as interest rates go up those prices come down because it's all a function of interest rates so if I borrowed a bunch of money to buy a house and now the house goes down I have no equity and my mortgage payments are up I'm I'm mailing in the keys but you have all these companies in America that have been losing money in fact in 2021 it was a record year in America for money losing companies going public now now how do all these money losing companies stay in business because the company is supposed to generate a profit to stay in business how do you lose a bunch of money and still stay in business how do you pay your employees how do you pay your rent right how do you do anything well the companies were selling stock to the public they were raising money by selling stock and a lot of companies were borrowing money to pay their expenses take it on debt but it was all great when rates were at zero and people were willing to buy these overpriced stocks when rates were at zero they're not willing to do it when rates are at 4% and in order to fight inflation they got to go much higher than 4% despite the rate increases federal funds rate in the United States right now is about three and a quarter to three and a half percent inflation even the way the government measures it is 8 and a quarter per.
that's -5% real interest rates you're not going to fight inflation with negative 5% rates you're going to create more inflation the only way that you can fight inflation with higher interest rates is if the interest rate is higher than the inflation rate and it can't just be a little bit higher it's got to be meaningfully higher in 1981 when Paul vulker raised interest rates or allowed interest rates to go up short-term rates went to 21% the highest inflation got was 133 A5 so that's what it took people had real interest rates the reason you need that is because you've got to stop people from spending money that's what's the demand it's spending you've got to get people to stop spending and start saving because that accomplishes two things it reduces demand but it increases Supply how does it increase Supply well when you spend money I mean when you save money and you don't spend it that money can Finance capital investment that will lead to more production of goods and so you increase the supply of goods while decreasing demand for goods prices can come down or stop going up that's what you need to do now if interest rates are negative that is not going to encourage anybody to save if NE rates are negative 5% you're going to lose 5% a year on any money you save why the hell would you save you wouldn't you're going to spend your money as quickly as you get it you're not going to save it and lose 5% a year now if the Federal Reserve raise interest rates up to let's say 10% or 15% then you might save your money hell I could put my money in the bank and earn 15% I'm not going to spend it even if inflation is 8% I'm still 7% ahead I'm gonna save my money I'm gonna earn all that interest I'm going to spend my money in the future because then I'm going be able to spend the interest that I earned on my money that's what the Federal Reserve needs to do but they're not doing that also we are running $2 trillion a year deficits in the United States where's the money coming from it's coming from the Federal Reserve or it was and there's no other source because if the Federal Reserve isn't going to print all that money then the private sector is going to have to buy all those treasuries but the private sector doesn't want those treasuries foreign central banks don't want those treasuries they want they need to sell the treasuries they've already got they don't need to buy anymore there is no way to finance these deficits so the government has to cut spending but they haven't cut any spending in fact if you look at the inflation reduction act that was a spending bill they increase spending to fight inflation how are you supposed to do that it's the spending that is the source of the inflation because the spending is being monetized by the central bank so instead of fighting inflation they created additional inflation instead of putting out the fire they poured gasoline on the fire and just pretended that they were going to put it out but everything we're doing we just were forgiving student loans in fact we told people that have student loans you don't have to pay those loans just go out and spend the money on other stuff buy more Goods buy more services push the prices even higher you see this the Federal Reserve and other central banks are at an inflection point they're really in a situation where they're between a rock and a hard place and they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't because for years they were able to Kick the Can down the road by creating inflation and sweeping the problem under the rug but now that inflation has become the problem they can't solve the inflation Problem by creating more inflation because the solution to every problem has been inflation the economy is weak print money lower interest rates companies are failing let's bail them out how do we pay for that crint money create inflation so inflation has been kind of the one trick pony it's been a cure all whatever alss us just inflation is going to be the Cure
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